Testing for residual correlation of any order in the autoregressive process

ABSTRACT

We are interested in the implications of a linearly autocorrelated driven noise on the asymptotic behavior of the usual least-squares estimator in a stable autoregressive process. We show that the least-squares estimator is not consistent and we suggest a sharp analysis of its almost sure limiting value as well as its asymptotic normality. We also establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality of the estimated serial correlation parameter of the driven noise. Then, we derive a statistical procedure enabling to test for correlation of any order in the residuals of an autoregressive modelling, giving clearly better results than the commonly used portmanteau tests of Ljung–Box and Box–Pierce, and appearing to outperform the Breusch–Godfrey procedure on small-sized samples.

KEYWORDS:

• Asymptotic properties of estimators
• Durbin–Watson statistic
• least-squares estimation
• residual autocorrelation
• stable autoregressive process
• statistical test for residual correlation

MATHEMATICS SUBJECT CLASSIFICATION:

• 62M10
• 62F03
• 62F12

Acknowledgments

We thank the anonymous Reviewer for the suggestions and comments.