Beyond the dominant party system: the transformation of party politics in Northern Ireland

ABSTRACT

For almost a century, unionists won a majority of seats in every election to Northern Ireland's regional parliament or assembly. That unbroken run came to an end in March 2017 when unionists became a minority in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time. Much scholarly analysis of this new dispensation characterises it as part of a long-term shift away from the binary politics of ethnonational division and majoritarianism as support grows for parties aligned with neither unionism nor nationalism. This paper offers an alternative analysis that emphasises the persistent importance of constitutionally related majorities. It argues that the emergence in 2017 of a non-unionist majority in the Assembly removed the last vestiges of a dominant party system that had endured in one form or another since the establishment of Northern Ireland. It marks the birth of a new party system, bringing about a much more fundamental shift in the dynamics of political competition than is generally understood. Rather than moving the politics of Northern Ireland beyond constitutional questions, it brings those questions to the forefront, with profound implications for the long-term relationship between Northern Ireland on one hand and the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain on the other.

KEYWORDS:

• Northern Ireland
• Ireland
• dominant party system
• majority rule
• consociationalism
• European Union

Acknowledgements

I am deeply grateful to Jennifer Todd for the inspiration provided by her imaginative and groundbreaking research over many years. It's a privilege to contribute to this special issue based on the 2018 conference to celebrate her work at which I first presented this paper. Many thanks to the reviewers for their suggestions, to Katy Hayward for her valuable feedback, and to Paul Mitchell for his detailed and very helpful suggestions for changes. I bear sole responsibility for any remaining errors or failings.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 That is, 8% of the vote that the Unionist candidate took in the by-election three years later when they faced a Northern Ireland Labour Party candidate.

2 The ‘backstop’ referred to the idea, eventually formalised in the original EU Withdrawal Agreement of 2018, that Northern Ireland would essentially remain in the European single market and subject to certain EU regulations when the UK left the EU. This was intended to avoid the sort of regulatory barriers between the two parts of Ireland that would create a ‘hard border’. The arrangement would only apply in the event that the EU and UK could not find agreement on alternative means to avoid a hard border.

3 The precise text of the question: ‘Here are some things that other people have said about the UK leaving the EU. How much do you agree or disagree with each of these statements? I would be in favour of Northern Ireland entering a political and economic alliance with the Republic of Ireland if it would help jobs and the economy’ (Source: Northern Ireland Life and Times survey: https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2017/Political_Attitudes/NIROIALL.html; accessed 13 January 2021).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Niall Ó Dochartaigh

Niall Ó Dochartaigh is Personal Professor of Political Science and Sociology at the National University of Ireland Galway. He is the author of Deniable Contact: Back-channel Negotiation in Northern Ireland (Oxford University Press, 2021) and Civil Rights to Armalites: Derry and the Birth of the Irish Troubles (Cork University Press 1997; Palgrave, 2005).