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Abstract
Measures of attitude concerning exposure to the sun, and judgements of risk and other beliefs concerning skin cancer and four other problems (stomach cancer, deafness, AIDS and sunstroke) were obtained from a questionnaire completed by 176 university students. Subjects also estimated the incidence of each problem using one of three response formats. The highest incidence estimates were obtained when subjects were asked to guess at an absolute number, and the lowest when they used a scale which differentiated between lower frequencies, while grouping higher frequencies into a single response category. The effect of the response scale format, however, did not generalize to other ratings of personal risk. Subjects' ratings of their personal risk, compared with their peers, showed an optimistic bias over the five problems as a whole, particularly for AIDS, but not reliably so in the case of skin cancer. Optimism was inversely related to the amount of thought given to each problem. Men and women did not differ overall in their optimism regarding their own risk of skin cancer. However, differences as a function of gender and optimism were found on various behavioural attitudes. The results are discussed in relation to a tendency of disregard base-rates in subjective risk judgements, unrealistic optimism, and implications for health education.
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