When strategy is ‘hybrid’ and not ‘grey’: reviewing Chinese military and constabulary coercion at sea

Abstract

The paper challenges the notion that Chinese maritime coercion in the East and South China Seas (ESCS) is best described as a grey zone strategy. The ‘grey zone’ notion raises two issues. Conceptually, it adds little to the existing literature on maritime coercion. Practically, it creates confusion over the understanding of maritime coercion by blurring the distinction between military and constabulary activities. The paper articulates this difference to elucidate the functional correlation between Beijing’s strategic objectives and maritime claims. Within this context, the grey zone construct is particularly problematic since it uncritically assumes that the use of force is designed to remain below the threshold of war. By contrast, the paper argues that Chinese maritime claims to control ‘rights and interests’ are a function of a broader strategic intention to project military power within and beyond the confines of the ESCS, whilst preventing others to do the same. Thus, Chinese maritime coercion (military and constabulary) increases strategic competition and the risk of war, and is therefore better described as part of a ‘hybrid’ strategy.

Keywords:

• Maritime coercion
• hybrid strategy
• grey zone strategy
• South China Sea
• East China Sea
• Chinese maritime power

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 NATO Alliance Command Transformation, ‘Hybrid Warfare’ presentation at 7th Annual NATO Maritime Interdiction Operational Training Centre (NMIOTC) Conference, Souda Bay, Greece, 8–9 June 2016.

2 ‘Peking Celebrates Its Paracels Victory with an Epic Poem’, 19 March 1974, Doc. No. 1974HONGK03095, Message to State, The National Archives, United States.

3 Kennedy, C. M. (2017, May 2–3). Maritime Militia Operations and Trends – Gray Zone Tactics. Paper presented at the conference China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations, China Maritime Studies Institute, Naval War College, RI, p. 110.

4 Author’s interviews with senior Japanese naval officials, Tokyo, April 2013.

5 Authors’s interview with senior official, Strategic Intelligence Division, Japan Ministry of Defence, Tokyo, 2 June 2017.

6 Ibid.

7 Kennedy, C. M. (2017, May 2–3). Maritime Militia Operations and Trends – Gray Zone Tactics. Paper presented at the conference China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations, China Maritime Studies Institute, Naval War College, RI, pp. 110–117.

8 Ibid., 114.

9 Authors’s interview with senior official, Strategic Intelligence Division, Japan Ministry of Defence, Tokyo, March 17, 2017.

10 Authors’s interview with senior official, Strategic Intelligence Division, Japan Ministry of Defence, Tokyo, March 17, 2017.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Alessio Patalano

Dr Alessio Patalano is Reader in East Asian Warfare and Security at the Department of War Studies, King’s College Lodon, and visiting professor at the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force Command and Staff College.