Impact analysis of age on radiation casualty estimations for nuclear detonation scenarios

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this research was to demonstrate the impact of accounting for age-based radiation response when estimating radiation casualties in a nuclear detonation scenario.

Materials and methods: Three nuclear device detonation scenarios were simulated using densely populated regions to compare traditional casualty estimates with age-dependent casualty estimates. Fatalities were estimated using age-based dose-response curves. The surviving population was assumed injured (requiring medical care) if their dose exceeded a lower bound, represented by the minimum dose required to cause deterministic effects, for each age group.

Results: In each of the three scenarios, the affected area increased significantly for radiosensitive age groups. In two of the three scenarios, accounting for age-dependent radiosensitivity resulted in up to a 10% increase in fatalities and up to a 12% increase in radiation injuries compared to traditional estimates. This study demonstrates that the differences in casualty estimates are dependent on the relative density and location of radiosensitive populations.

Conclusions: These results demonstrate that the inclusion of age-based demographic data and associated dose responses may result in significantly higher estimates of casualties depending on the location and age of the affected population. This information could be useful for the emergency management planning community.

Keywords:

• Acute radiation syndrome (ARS)
• demographics
• age
• casualty estimations
• radiosensitivity

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the support provided by Dr. Paul Blake of DTRA.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

Funding for this work was provided by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under task order HDTRA1-14-D-003; 0005.

Notes on contributors

Jacob Bellman

Dr. Jacob Bellman is an Applied Mathematician at Applied Research Associates (ARA). His research is primarily focused on the physiological response to injury and the resulting health effects.

Emily Wilkinson

Emily Wilkinson is a Research Analyst at ARA. She specializes in graphic information systems (GIS) software applications for scenario analysis and data visualization.

Tyler Dant

Mr. Tyler Dant is a Health Physicist at ARA. His work is focused on modeling the effects of nuclear detonations and the resulting health effects.

Alec Thurman

Mr. Alec Thurman is a Senior Scientist and group leader at ARA. His work focuses on chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) population effects and geospatial data analysis for emergency response and decision support.

Daniela Stricklin

Dr. Daniela Stricklin is a Scientific Advisor at ARA leading the radiation health effects work performed for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).