Indecision Factors when Planning for Land Use Change

Abstract

The 'Law of Anticipated Reactions' and its two extensions are applied to the Portuguese planning context in the decision-making process of choosing where to locate a major airport. My argument contends the fact that uncertainty, associated with indecision, in locating major infrastructure hubs constrains individual actions according to governments' perceived powers (uncertainty of preferences and uncertainty of sanctions). The relevance of knowing how to cope with these indecision factors in the location of major transportation hubs is important to establish ' a priori ' actions that can forecast urban problems and timely implement appropriate planning strategies. The two Portuguese municipalities most often mentioned as the most probable locations for the airport are used as case studies to analyse and discuss how indecision factors have been affecting land use change. The data sources used for the two municipalities are land use change, census information and number of development requirements. The data is contrasted with urban and regional plans to verify if indeed indecision associated with the location of this major airport was an important factor in speeding up land consumption in both areas.