https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9389-7368
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ABSTRACT
The international community has reacted with surprising speed and unity to Russia’s ‘special military operation’ on Ukrainian territory through commercial and financial sanctions to achieve its economic isolation. This military action will change the relations between Russia and most world countries in ways that cannot yet be foreseen. This study analyzes the short-term effects of international trade interruptions on the economy, considering different isolation scenarios. The hypothetical extraction method and a multi-regional input-output model are used to simulate the economic effects on the production of 189 countries. The results show that the most affected country is Russia, with a drop in production of 10.1% in the scenario with sanctions from the European Union and 14.8% when the sanctions are also applied by Australia, Canada, Japan, United States, and the United Kingdom. The European countries with the greatest geographical proximity and strong trade flow with Russia suffer a significant drop in their production, including Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, and Poland. In Russia, the most affected economic sectors are Re-export & Re-import and Mining & Quarrying. Finally, the estimated impacts are a lower bound since the effects associated with financial sanctions, exchange rates, commodity prices, among others, are not considered.
Acknowledgements
The author is grateful to the ANID (Regular FONDECYT project no. 1220010) for the financing it provided for this research. Two anonymous reviewers are also acknowledged for their recommendations.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Or ‘Putin's war’.
3 Agriculture; Fishing; Mining and Quarrying; Food & Beverages; Textiles and Wearing Apparel; Wood and Paper; Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products; Metal Products; Electrical and Machinery; Transport Equipment; Other Manufacturing; Recycling; Energy; Construction; Maintenance and Repair; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Hotels and Restaurants; Transport; Post and Telecommunications; Financial Intermediation and Business Activities; Public Administration; Education, Health and Other Services; Private Households; Others; Re-export & Re-import.
4 https://wits.worldbank.org/countrysnapshot/en/RUSSIA
5 https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/russia/#:∼:text = In%202021%2C%20Russia%20was%20the,in%20goods%20with%20the%20world.