A blessing in disguise? Scottish independence and the end of the UK nuclear posture

Abstract

This article examines the implications of Scottish independence for the UK's nuclear posture. It is argued here that a vote for independence will critically undermine this posture. Since the UK nuclear force operates entirely out of Scotland, and since the Scottish government continues to assert its intention to see nuclear weapons removed from an independent Scotland, it is overwhelmingly likely that a ‘Yes’ vote will prompt a demand for the drawdown of the UK nuclear force in Scotland. If it wished to maintain its nuclear capability, the UK government would then have to make alternative basing arrangements. It is argued here that a host of legal, financial and political difficulties may preclude any such relocation and that Downing Street may ultimately be left with little option but to surrender the UK's nuclear capability. This article concludes that far from weakening the UK, a surrendering of its nuclear posture would result in a stronger and more functional UK military footprint and would bolster the UK's standing in the international arena.

Keywords:

• UK nuclear deterrent
• Scottish independence
• Trident

Notes on contributor

John MacDonald holds an MLitt in European Politics from the University of Dundee and a Ph.D. from the same institution. He has lectured extensively in Scotland, the USA and in Switzerland, principally in the fields of transatlantic security, the politics of war and military intervention, and American politics. As well as holding the position of Director at the Scottish Global Forum, he is currently an Associate Lecturer at the University of Glasgow where he lectures in American politics. Beyond the academy, John has worked as a security policy consultant. He commentates regularly in the national media on issues relating to security and democracy and he has accepted invitations from an array of organisations to speak on these issues. John is currently engaged in a variety of collaborative projects examining the implications of Scotland's current constitutional journey, with a particular focus on Scottish security and defence, and the future of the UK nuclear deterrent.