United Russia’s Primaries and the Strength of Political Machines in the Regions of Russia: Evidence from the 2016 Duma Elections

Abstract

The primary elections of the United Russia party serve as a tool for party organisation and voter mobilisation. In this study, we employ United Russia’s capacity to mobilise voter turnout in the 2016 primary elections as an indirect indicator of the strength of party-controlled regional political machines. Our analysis of the results of the 2016 Duma elections in 83 regions of Russia demonstrates that voter turnout in the spring 2016 party primaries of United Russia to a significant extent explains cross-regional variation in party success.

Notes

1 Pravovye i politicheskie osobennosti predvaritel’nogo otbora partiyami kandidatov na rossiiskikh vyborakh 2016 goda (Moscow, Komitet grazhdanskikh initsiativ), available at: http://komitetgi.ru/analytics/2896/, accessed 22 January 2018. Much of the descriptive information reported in this section is derived from this source.

2 ‘10 voprosov o sisteme praimeriz v Rossii’, TASS, 16 May 2016, available at: http://tass.ru/politika/3280114, accessed 19 January 2018.

3 ‘Praimeriz partii “Edinaya Rossiya”. Dos’e’, TASS, 15 February 2016, available at: http://tass.ru/info/2669202, accessed 19 January 2018.

4 Ustav partii ‘Edinaya Rossiya’, 2016, available at: http://er.ru/party/rules/, accessed 22 January 2018.

5 See also ‘Chto takoe praimeriz “Edinoi Rossii”?’, BBC Russian Service, 12 April 2016, available at: http://www.bbc.com/russian/russia/2016/04/160412_united_russia_primaries, accessed 22 January 2018.

6 ‘Putin predlozhil sozdat’ k vyboram v Gosdumu “narodnyi front”, ob"edinyayushchii raznye politicheskie sily’, 2011, available at: http://www.gazeta.ru/news/lastnews/2011/05/06/n_1827013.shtml, accessed 28 January 2018. See also ‘Opublikovan proekt deklaratsii ob obrazovanii Narodnogo fronta’, 2011, available at: http://www.rbc.ru/politics/13/05/2011/5703e7589a79473c0df1dfeb, accessed 28 January 2018; Kolesnikov (2011); and Zakatnova and Latukhina (2011).

7 ‘Polozhenie o poryadke provedeniya narodnogo predvaritel’nogo golosovaniya’, Edinaya Rossiya. Ofitsial’nyi Sait Partii, 16 June 2011, available at: http://er.ru/news/54541/, accessed 22 January 2018.

8 ‘V ‘Narodnom fronte’ poyavyatsya vyborshchiki, kotorye budut otbirat’ kandidatov v Gosdumu’, gazeta.ru, 16 June 2011, available at: http://www.gazeta.ru/news/lenta/2011/06/16/n_1885933.shtml, accessed 28 January 2018.

9 ‘Kosmonavt E. Kondakova obvinila ‘ER’ v fal’sifikatsiyakh na praimeriz’, Rosbizneskonsalting, 17 August 2011, available at: http://www.rbc.ru/politics/17/08/2011/5703eae69a79477633d369f1, accessed 22 January 2018.

10 ‘V. Putin otmenil rezul’taty praimeriz ‘ER’ v dvukh gorodakh iz-za podtasovki’, Rosbizneskonsalting, 8 September 2011, available at: http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20110908175410.shtml, accessed 28 January 2018.

11 ‘Polozhenie o poryadke provedeniya predvaritel’nogo golosovaniya po kandidaturam dlya posleduyushchego vydvizheniya ot partii ‘Edinaya Rossiya’ kandidatov v deputaty Gosudartsvennoi Dumy Federal’nogo Sobraniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii sed’mogo sozyva’, Edinaya Rossiya. Respublika Tatarstan, 2016, available at: http://tatarstan.er.ru/pg/userdata/files/2016/02/12/polozhenie-1.pdf, accessed 22 January 2018.

12 ‘“Edinoi Rossii” zapretili brat’ na vybory ne proshedshikh praimeriz kandidatov’, lenta.ru, 6 February 2016, available at: http://lenta.ru/news/2016/02/06/ne_tepliza/, accessed 22 January 2018.

13 ‘“Edinaya Rossiya” isklyuchila Andreya Gorokhova iz spiskov praimeriz v Gosdumu’, Informatsionno-Analiticheskii Portal Kaliningrada, 26 June 2016, available at: http://kgd.ru/news/policy/item/54941-edinaya-rossiya-isklyuchila-andreya-gorohova-iz-spiskov-prajmeriz-v-gosdumu, accessed 28 January 2018; Zanyavshaya pervoe mesto v ivanovskom spiske ER Svetlana Moskvina snyala kandidaturu, 2016, Kommersant”, available at: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3023532, accessed 28 January 2018; ‘Edinaya Rossiya’ opredelilas’ s kandidatami v Gosdumu ot Sverdlovskoi oblasti, 2016, Vechernie vedomosti, available at: http://veved.ru/news/74998-edinaya-rossiya-opredelilas-s-kandidatami-v-gosdumu-ot-sverdlovskoj-oblasti.html, accessed 28 January 2018.

14 ‘Otchet ob itogakh nablyudeniya za organizatsiei i provedeniem politicheskimi partiyami protsedury predvaritel’nogo golosovaniya (praimeriz) po otboru kandidatov dlya vydvizheniya na vyborakh v edinyi den’ golosovaniya 18 sentyabrya 2016 g.’, Golos, 2016, available at: http://www.golosinfo.org/ru/articles/97861, accessed 28 January 2018; ‘Nas zastavlyayut idti na praimeriz ER—Mediki raionnoi bol’nitsy v Khabarovskom krae’, Mediakholding PrimaMedia, 21 May 2016, available at: http://amurmedia.ru/news/507392/, accessed 22 January 2018; Fomina (2012).

15 ‘KPRF: Rabotodateli zastavlyayut sotrudnikov progolosovat’ na praimeriz ER v Zabaikal’e’, Chitinskii Gorodskoi Portal, 2016, available at: http://www.chita.ru/news/87048/, accessed 22 January 2018.

16 ‘Makarony protiv administrativnogo resursa. Yurevich zovet na praimeriz’, Novosti Analitika Ural’skogo Federal’nogo Okruga, 17 May 2016, available at: http://www.naurfo.ru/news/33539, accessed 26 January 2018.

17 ‘Yavka na praimeriz prevysila ozhidaniya rukovodstva “Edinoi Rossii”’, Interfax, 22 May 2016, available at: http://www.interfax.ru/russia/509508, accessed 22 January 2018.

18 ‘Novye litsa “Edinoi Rossii”. Praimeriz partii vlasti: Kto pridet na smenu’, Meduza, 24 May 2016, available at: http://meduza.io/feature/2016/05/24/novye-litsa-edinoy-rossii, accessed 22 January 2018.

19 In the analysis below, we do not report the results of the analysis performed on the logit-transformed percentage shares, which is sometimes desirable for methodological reasons. It has to be mentioned, however, that such an analysis has been implemented by the authors and did not yield results significantly different from those reported below.

Additional information

Funding

This article was prepared within the framework of the Basic Research Programme at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and supported by the Russian Academic Excellence Project ‘5-100’.

Notes on contributors

Tatiana Tkacheva

Tatiana Tkacheva, Laboratory For Comparative Social Research, Higher School of Economics, St Petersburg, Russian Federation. Email: [email protected]

Grigorii V. Golosov

Grigorii V. Golosov, University Professor of Comparative Politics and Dean, Political Science Department, European University at St Petersburg, Gagarinskaya 6/1, St Petersburg 191187, Russian Federation