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Abstract
Climate change is a potential threat to society and business. Although research has noted that the tourism sector may be robust on the macro scale, significant losses at local levels have been suggested. This paper examines Upper Norrland, in Northern Sweden, by measuring the perceptions of winter-oriented tourism entrepreneurs. Their perceptions of potential threats from climate change are assessed, including how entrepreneurs view the future, in terms of climate change impacts and sustainability of the region as a winter-tourism destination. A quantitative survey of entrepreneurs (n = 63) gave responses along geographical and operator dimensions to reveal local differences within the Upper Norrland region, showing the coastland to be perceived as more exposed to change than inland areas. Venue-based businesses see climate change as a higher priority than activity-based, potentially mobile, businesses, regardless of their location. The general perception among businesses is that climate change will not drastically impact the tourism sector over the next 10 years. A basic model for mapping local differences is outlined to stimulate further study of the under-researched intra-regional nuances in climate change and tourism research. A case is made for regional planners to use this tool and to educate local businesses on adaptation techniques.
瑞典北部的气候变化：区域内部对冬季旅游产业的脆弱性理解和看法
气候变化对社会和产业是一种潜在的威胁。虽然很多研究指出，在宏观上，旅游业仍然增长很快，但在一些局部范围已存在重大的损失。该文章通过冬季旅游企业家的看法审查了在瑞典北部的Upper Norrland地区,并着重于理解他们对气候变化的潜在威胁的看法，包括企业家对于在气候变化影响下和作为冬季旅游目的地的可持续性上如何看待将来。文章对企业家（n=63）的量化调查建立在地域性的和营业性的层面上，对在Upper Norrland区域里的当地区别作出解释，显示沿海地区受气候变化的影响相对于内陆地区来讲要来得严重。以场地为本的商业和以活动为本的商业相比，会将气候变化看成更重要的因素，因为以活动为本的商业对场地无要求，能灵活移动经营地点。综合来讲，企业家大体上认为气候变化对旅游业在接下去的10年内并不会造成颠覆性的影响。文章概述了一个能绘制当地不同性的基本模型，用来激励对气候改变和旅游研究相关的区域内部细微差别的研究做更深入的分析。这也为区域规划人员使用该工具和教育当地从商人员对适应性技能的运用提供了一个很好的例子。
