The impacts of trade intensity with China on carbon emissions in belt and road countries

Abstract

This study uses country-level panel data covering 97 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries for the period 2002–2017 and a dynamic panel system generalized method of moments model to investigate the impacts of trade intensity with China on per capita carbon emissions of BRI countries. The study finds that import intensity from China has reduced and export intensity to China has increased per capita carbon emissions of BRI countries. The findings are robust in using instrumental variables, explaining by energy intensity, and dividing the sample into different groups and different periods. Particularly, the absolute values of the coefficients of import intensity (-0.0071) and export intensity (0.0212) in resource-rich group are much higher than those in resource-poor group (-0.0046 and 0.0028), and the impacts are strengthened after 2013. Therefore, China should adjust trade relations with BRI countries to help them reduce carbon emissions while raising incomes under the context of BRI.

Keywords:

• Trade intensity
• belt and road initiative
• per capita carbon emissions
• dynamic panel system GMM model with instrumental variables
• China

JEL CODES:

• C33
• F18
• Q56

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 The data are available from https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/CHN.

2 The data are available from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.

3 The data are available from https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics.

4 The calculation is based on the 97 sample BRI countries used in this study.

5 There are 33 countries in natural resource-rich group. They are Angola, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Brunei, Chile, Congo, Ethiopia, Ecuador, Ghana, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Mongolia, Malaysia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Niger, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Somalia, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen and Zambia.

6 There are 64 countries in natural resource-poor group. They are Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Belarus, Benin, Bulgaria, Bahrain, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia, Cuba, Costa Rica, Cameroon, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Dominican, Egypt, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Italy, Jamaica, Kyrgyzstan, Kenya, Korea, Lebanon, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Morocco, Montenegro, Myanmar, Malta, Namibia, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Peru, Portugal, Poland, Panama, Romania, South Africa, Senegal, Serbia, Sri Lankan, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Thailand, The Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay, Ukraine, Vietnam and Zimbabwe.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China [grant number 20CGJ019].

Notes on contributors

Yan Wu

Yan Wu Associate Professor, School of Economics, Beijing Technology and Business University. Research interests are in FDI, International Trade and Urbanization.

Chunlai Chen

Chunlai Chen, Professor, College of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University. Research interests are in FDI, International Trade, Agricultural Economics and Chinese Economy.

Cong Hu

Dr. Cong Hu, School of International Development and Cooperation, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China. Research interests are in International Trade and Sustainable Development.