Scenarios and sustainability: tools for alleviating the gap between municipal means and responsibilities in adaptation planning

Abstract

Adaptation to climate change often involves long-time frames and uncertainties over the consequences of chosen adaptation measures. In this study, two tools designed for assisting local decision-makers in adaptation planning were tested: socio-economic scenarios and sustainability analysis. The objective was to study whether these tools could be of practical relevance to Swedish municipalities and facilitate local-level climate change adaptation. We found that the municipal planners who participated in the testing generally considered the tools useful and of high relevance, but that more time was needed to use the tools than was provided during the test process.

Keywords:

• climate change
• adaptation
• socio-economic scenarios
• goal conflict
• cost–benefit analysis

Notes

The Oxford English Dictionary defines tool as “a device used to carry out a particular function”. By decision (support) tool, we mean a device (a method, checklist, handbook, computer program, etc.) that can be used to facilitate decision-making; for example, by helping to structure the decision problem (define objectives and constraints, identify options etc.), evaluate decision alternatives, or monitor and evaluate implemented decisions. Hence, we distinguish between decision tools and decision analyses; a decision tool is typically applied to enhance to the possibilities of making structured analyses.

Within the program, a “toolbox” is developed with the aim of supporting climate-adaptation planning at the local and regional levels in Sweden. A key tenet of the program is that the tools are developed in close collaboration with researchers, who develop prototypes, and practitioners, who test the tools, which are then further refined.

In mid-October 2011, the ground-water aquifer was temporarily closed due to a discovery of perfluorinated substances (PFOSs). Although not an impact from climate change, PFOS in the Tullinge aquifer increases Botkyrka municipality's vulnerability to other drinking-water disruptions.

See, for example, UNFCCC Secretariat (2008) for an overview of different methods and tools. See also the UKCIP Adaptation Wizard (UKCIP 2011).

For a thorough treatment of this model and its implications for long-range planning (see Eriksson and Dreborg 2011).

Climate sensitivity is introduced as a measure of the range of response from different climate models. A non-technical definition of climate sensitivity is that it is the long-term equilibrium warming response to a doubling in atmospheric CO₂ (see Meehl et al. 2007, p. 762).

There are other decision support tools such as cost-effectiveness analysis (sometimes called simplified CBA), in which the costs are measured monetarily but where the benefits are measured in their “natural” units (e.g. fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide), and multi-criteria analysis (MCA), which weighs together consequences of very different character (e.g. see the previous examples) with explicit weights rather than monetarily. In essence, part A of the sustainability analysis tool is a CBA with strong emphasis on ecological and social values and consequences.

Municipal decision-making is often based on purely economic analyses that ignore potential differences in societal (e.g. social and ecological) consequences of different options.

Tyréns AB (Tyréns 2011).

The second workshop took place less than 2 months after the first workshop.

The Aalborg commitments is the conference declaration of the Fourth European Conference on Sustainable Cities and Towns (see aalborgplus10.dk 2011).

Not published but available from the authors upon request.

In 2008 prices unless otherwise stated. €1 was on average equal to SEK 9.61 in 2008 (Sveriges riksbank 2011).

The time declining discount rate was 3.5% (years 1–20), 2.5% (years 21–100), 1.5% (years 101–200) and 0.5% (years 201–300).

In an effort to economise on space, we do not present all the details of the calculations. Full information is available from the authors upon request.

To give one example, the Thames Estuary 2100 project used a multi-criteria decision analysis to rank the options against multiple objectives, where key criteria included economic value of investments and various environmental and social factors (Ranger et al. 2010). See also Brouwer and van Ek (2004), who use MCA to evaluate alternative flood control policies in the Netherlands and Julius and Scheraga (2000), who use MCA to evaluate agricultural adaptation strategies in the Nile Delta.