Scenarios and sustainability: tools for alleviating the gap between municipal means and responsibilities in adaptation planning

References

• Aalborg Commitments, 2004 [online]. Available from: http://www.aalborgplus10.dk/media/pdf2004/finaldraftaalborgcommitments.pdf [Accessed 9 November 2011].
   Google Scholar
• aalborgplus10.dk, 2011. Aalborg plus 10 home page [online]. Available from: http://www.aalborgplus10.dk [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• AIACC, 2011. AIACC home page [online]. Available from: http://www.aiaccproject.org [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Arnell , N. 2004 . Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines . Global Environmental Change , 14 ( 1 ) : 3 – 20 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bates, B.C., et al., 2008. Climate change and water. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
   Google Scholar
• Berkhout , F. , Hertin , J. and Jordan , A. 2002 . Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as learning machines . Global Environmental Change , 12 ( 2 ) : 83 – 95 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boardman , A. E. 2001 . Cost–benefit analysis: concepts and practice , 2 , Upper Saddle River , NJ : Prentice Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Botkyrka, 2007. Ett hållbart Botkyrka [A sustainable Botkyrka] [online]. Available in Swedish from: http://www.botkyrka.se/SiteCollectionDocuments/Kommun%20och%20politik/Ett_h%C3%A5llbart_Botkyrka_digital_slutlig_version%5B1%5D.pdf [Accessed 18 May 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Botkyrka kommun, 2011. Botkyrka kommun home page [online]. Available from: http://www.botkyrka.se [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Börjeson, L., et al., 2006. Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures, 38 (7), 723–739.
   Google Scholar
• Bradfield , R. 2005 . The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning . Futures , 37 ( 8 ) : 795 – 812 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brouwer , R. and van Ek , R. 2004 . Integrated ecological, economic and social impact assessment of alternative flood control policies in the Netherlands . Ecological Economics , 50 ( 1–2 ) : 296 – 312 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Campbell , S. 1996 . Green cities, growing cities, just cities? – Urban planning and the contradictions of sustainable development . Journal of the American Planning Association , 62 ( 3 ) : 296 – 312 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Callaway, J.M., et al., 2007. The Berg river dynamic spatial equilibrium model: a new tool for assessing the benefits and costs of alternatives for coping with water demand growth, climate variability, and climate change in the Western Cape. AIACC Working Paper No. 31 [online]. Available from: http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP31_Callaway.pdf [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Carlsen, H. and Dreborg, K.-H., 2008. Dynamisk generering av socioekonomiska scenarier för klimatanpassning: metod, byggstenar och exempel [Dynamic generation of socio-economic scenarios for climate change adaptation]. Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI-R–2512–SE. [online]. Available from: http://www.foi.se/upload/Dynamisk%20generering%20av%20socioekonomiska%20scenarier%20för%20klimatanpassning%20metod,%20byggstenar%20och%20exempel.pdf [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Carlsen, H., et al., 2009. Hälsokonsekvenser av extrem värme i Umeå-regionen, [Health consequences of extreme heat in the region of Umeå]. Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI-R–2811–SE [online]. Available from: http://www2.foi.se/rapp/foir2811.pdf [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Carter , J. , Wood , C. and Baker , M. 2003 . Structure plan appraisal and the SEA directive . Town Planning Review , 74 ( 4 ) : 395 – 422 .
   Google Scholar
• Carter, T.R., et al., 1994. IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. Tsukuba, Japan: Department of Geography, University College London UK and Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies.
   Google Scholar
• Carter, T.R., et al., 2005. FINADAPT scenarios for the 21st century. Alternative futures for considering adaptation to climate change in Finland. Helsinki: Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 332, FINADAPT Working Paper no. 2.
   Google Scholar
• Dreborg, K.-H., 2004. Scenarios and structural uncertainty: explorations in the field of sustainable transport. Thesis (PhD). Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm.
   Google Scholar
• Ds, 2009:63. Sveriges femte nationalrapport om klimatförändringar. I enlighet med Förenta Nationernas ramkonvention om klimatförändringar [Sweden's fifth national report on climate change. In accordance with United Nations convention on climate change] [online]. Available in Swedish from: http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/344/a/139741 [Accessed 19 May 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Edvardsson Björnberg, K. and Svenfelt, Å., 2009. Goal conflicts in adaptation to climate change. Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency, Report No. FOI-R-2747-SE [online]. Available from: http://www.foi.se/upload/FOI-R–2747–SE%20Goal%20conflicts.3.pdf [Accessed 25 May 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Emery , F. E. and Trist , E. L. 1965 . The causal texture of organizational environments . Human Relations , 18 ( 1 ) : 21 – 32 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eriksson, E.A. and Dreborg, K.-H., 2011. Archetypal planning situations: a framework for selecting FTA tools for global challenges. Paper presented at the conference Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). FTA and Grand Societal Challenges – Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations, 12–13 May, Seville.
   Google Scholar
• FOI, 2011. Climatools homepage [online]. Available from: http://www.climatools.se [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Fuguitt , D. and Wilcox , S. J. 1999 . Cost–benefit analysis for public sector decision makers , Westport , CT : Quorum .
   Google Scholar
• Glaas , E. 2010 . Managing climate vulnerabilities: formal institutions and knowledge use as determinants of adaptive capacity at the local level in Sweden . Local Environment , 15 ( 6 ) : 525 – 539 .
   Google Scholar
• Göransson, A., 2008. Kan grundvatten värderas? Grundvattenrådet för Kristianstadsslätten [Is it possible to value groundwater?] [online]. Available in Swedish from: http://www.kristianstad.se/upload/Milj%C3%B6%20Energi/dokument/Grundvatten/Kan%20Grundvatten%20v%C3%A4rderas_Rapport.pdf [Accessed 11 April 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Hanley , N. and Spash , C. L. 1993 . Cost–benefit analysis and the environment , Northampton , MA : Edward Elgar .
   Google Scholar
• van der Heijden , K. 2005 . Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation , 2 , Chichester : John Wiley & Sons .
   Google Scholar
• Hughes , N. , Tomei , J. and Ekins , P. 2009 . Critical review of the application of the UKCIP socioeconomic scenarios: lessons learnt and future directions , London : Department of Geography, King's College .
   Google Scholar
• Huss , W. R. and Honton , E. J. 1987 . Scenario planning – what style should you use . Long Range Planning , 20 ( 4 ) : 21 – 29 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• IPCC WG II, 2007. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability [online]. Available from: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org [Accessed 3 November 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Johansson , P.-O. 2002 . Värdering av grundvattenresurser. Metoder och tillvägagångssätt [Valuing groundwater resources. Methods and procedures]. Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Report 5142 [online]. Available from: http://www.naturvardsverket.se/documents/publikationer/620-6278-6.pdf [Accessed 17 December 2011]
   Google Scholar
• Julius , S. H. and Scheraga , J. D. 2000 . “ The TEAM model for evaluating alternative adaptation strategies ” . In Research and practice in multiple criteria decision making: proceedings of the XIV-th international conference on multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), Charlottesville, Virginia, USA, June 8–12, 1998 Edited by: Haimes , Y. Y. and Steuer , R. E. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Vol. 487. Berlin: Springer, 319–330
   Google Scholar
• Kahn , H. and Wiener , A. 1967 . The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years , New York : MacMillan .
   Google Scholar
• March , J. G. and Simon , H. A. 1958 . Organizations , New York : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• McKenzie Hedger , M. 2008 . Desk review: evaluation of adaptation to climate change from a development perspective , Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex .
   Google Scholar
• Meehl , G. A. 2007 . “ Global climate projections ” . In Climate change 2007: the physical science basis Edited by: Solomon , S. , Qin , D. , Manning , M. , Chen , Z. , Marquis , M. , Averyt , K. B. , Tignor , M. and Miller , H. L. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 747–845
   Google Scholar
• Mitchell , C. R. 1981 . The structure of international conflict , Basingstoke : Macmillan Press .
   Google Scholar
• Moss , R. H. 2010 . The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment . Nature , 463 ( 7282 ) : 747 – 756 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mossberg Sonnek, K. and Hörnsten Friberg, L., 2009. Test av Climatools Scenarioverktyg. Utveckling av socioekonomiska scenarier inom turismnäringen på Österlen [Test of Climatools scenario tool] FOI-R–2798–SE. Swedish Defence Research Agency [online]. Available from: http://www.foi.se/upload/FOI-R–2798–SE.pdf [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Nakićenović , N. 2000 . Emission scenarios. Special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel of climate change , Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Njie , M. 2006 . Making economic sense of adaptation in upland cereal production systems in the Gambia AIACC Working Paper No. 37 [online]. Available from: http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP37_Njie%202.pdf [Accessed 17 December 2011]
   Google Scholar
• OECD . 2008 . Economic aspects of adaptation to climate change. Costs, benefits and policy instruments , Paris : OECD .
   Google Scholar
• Ranger, N., et al., 2010. Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process. Policy brief, September 2010. The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy [online]. Available from: http://www.cccep.ac.uk/Publications/Policy/docs/PB-annexes-Ranger-september.pdf [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Reilly , J. 2001 . Uncertainty and climate change assessments . Science , 293 ( 5529 ) : 430 – 433 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• SALAR (Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions), 2009. Läget i landet. En enkätundersökning om klimatanpassning i den fysiska planeringen. Sammanställning och presentation av resultat [A survey on climate change adaptation in physical planning] [online]. Available in Swedish from: http://www.skl.se/vi_arbetar_med/tillvaxt_och_samhallsbyggnad/plan/klimatanpassning/nyheter_4/laget-i-landet [Accessed 19 May 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Schneider , S. H. 2001 . What is dangerous climate change . Nature , 411 ( 6833 ) : 17 – 19 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simon , H. A. 1956 . Rational choice and the structure of the environment . Psychological Review , 63 ( 2 ) : 129 – 138 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simon , H. A. 1972 . “ Theories of bounded rationality ” . In Decision and organization , Edited by: Mcguire , C. B. and Radner , R. 161 – 176 . Amsterdam : North-Holland Publishing Company .
   Google Scholar
• SMHI, 2011. [online] Available from: http://www.smhi.se/sgn0106/leveranser/sverigeanalysen/ [Accessed 25 May 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Stahre, P. and Geldof, G.D., 2003. New approach to sustainable stormwater planning. International Green Roof Institute, Publication No 005 [online]. Available from: http://www.greenroof.se/data/archive/media/Forskarrapporter/005-New-approach-to-sustainable-stormwater-planning.pdf [Accessed 17 December 2011]
   Google Scholar
• Stern, N., 2006. Stern review: the economics of climate change [online]. Available from: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm [Accessed 19 September 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Sterte, Å., 2010. Cost benefit analysis of protecting Tullinge water catchment. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2010-11-25. Mimeo [Unpublished, but available from authors upon request].
   Google Scholar
• Strandberg, G., 2007. En jämförelse av de två klimatscenarierna A1FI och A2 med två globala klimatmodeller, underlag till Climatools [A comparison of the two climate scenarios A1FI and A2 with two global climate models]. SMHI Rossby Centre, November [Unpublished manuscript].
   Google Scholar
• Sveriges riksbank, 2011. Sveriges rikbanks home page [online]. Available from: http://www.riksbank.se [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability . 2007 . Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities Stockholm. Final report from the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability. Swedish Governmental Official Reports (SOU) 2007:60 [online]. Available in Swedish from: http://www.regeringen.se/sb/d/108/a/94595 [Accessed 17 December 2011]
   Google Scholar
• Swedish Government Official Report, 2007:60. Sverige inför klimatförändringarna. Bilaga B 13 Dricksvattenförsörjning i förändrat klimat [Sweden and climate changes] [online]. Available in Swedish from: http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/8704/a/89334 [Accessed 19 May 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Tyréns, 2011. Tyréns home page [online]. Available from: http://www.tyrens.se [Accessed 17 December 2011].
   Google Scholar
• UKCIP . 2001 . Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment: a guide to their use in the UK Climate Impacts Programme , Oxford : UK Climate Impacts Programme .
   Google Scholar
• UKCIP, 2011. UKCIP home page [online]. Available from: http://www.ukcip.org.uk [Accessed 2 November 2011].
   Google Scholar
• UNFCCC Secretariat, 2008. Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change [online]. Available from: http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/nairobi_workprogramme/compendium_on_methods_tools/application/pdf/20080307_compendium_m_t_complete.pdf [Accessed 18 April 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Van Drunen , M. , van't Klooster , S. A. and Berkhout , F. 2011 . Bounding the future: the use of scenarios in assessing climate change impacts . Futures , 43 ( 4 ) : 488 – 496 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• VAS-council, 2009. Dricksvattenförekomster i Stockholms län. Prioriteringar för långsiktigt skydd. VAS-rådets rapporter nr 6 [The occurrence of drinking water in Stockholm County] [online]. Available in Swedish from: http://www.lansstyrelsen.se/stockholm/SiteCollectionDocuments/Sv/miljo-och-klimat/halsoskydd/dricksvatten/RAPPORT_nr_6_Dricksvattenforekomster_i_Stockholms_lan_utanbilagor.pdf [Accessed 19 May 2011].
   Google Scholar
• Wack , P. 1985a . Scenarios, uncharted waters ahead . Harvard Business Review , 63 ( 5 ) : 73 – 89 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wack , P. 1985b . Scenarios, shooting the rapids . Harvard Business Review , 63 ( 6 ) : 139 – 150 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weitzman , M. L. 2009 . On modelling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change . The Review of Economics and Statistics , 91 ( 1 ) : 1 – 19 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar