Communication and use of climate scenarios for climate change adaptation in Finland, Sweden and Norway

Abstract

This paper assesses the communication and the use of climate scenarios at the science–science and science–policy interface in Finland, Sweden and Norway. It is based on document analysis and stakeholder questionnaires. The questionnaires targeted three stakeholder groups, all engaged in the communication and the use of climate scenario information: climate scenario producers; impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) experts; and policy-makers. The respondents were asked to identify issues associated with the communication of scenarios and other needs pertaining to the usefulness and availability of such information. Despite the relatively long history of climate change adaptation in the three countries, climate scenarios are not utilised to their full potential. Climate scenarios have been used in awareness raising, problem understanding and strategy development. However, far less examples can be found on adaptation actions, particularly on harnessing the benefits of climate change. The communication between climate scenario producers and IAV experts functions well; however, communication between climate researchers and policy-makers is less efficient. Each country has developed boundary services to enhance dissemination of the climate scenario information to policy-makers. They are cost-efficient but do not necessarily enhance the comprehension of the information and encourage the actual dialogue between scenario producers and the end-users. Further translation of scenario information to impact and vulnerability estimates together with established boundary work could improve the use of climate research information. As adaptation policy in these countries further progresses towards implementation, there are increasing expectations of support from research, further challenging the communication of climate scenarios.

Keywords:

• adaptation
• climate scenarios
• communication
• dissemination
• science–policy interface

Acknowledgement

Thanks to Curtis Wood and David Lazarevic for proofreading the paper.

Funding

This paper is a result of the CARePol project, which was supported by the Academy of Finland, The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Research Council of Norway through CIRCLE-Nordic call. The Swedish research was also part of the Swedish Mistra-SWECIA research programme funded by the Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra). Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola was supported by the Nessling Foundation.

Notes

1. Respondents indicated the use of scenarios at different scales; hence, the numbers do not add up to 52/52.