Best practice in conducting actuarial risk assessments with adult sexual offenders

Abstract

It is important for practitioners using actuarial scales to have some understanding of the methodological limitations of the technology and the possible errors and inaccuracies of reporting actuarial risk estimates in individual cases. Rather than enumerating every aspect of actuarial risk assessment measures, the aim of this paper is to summarize the strengths and weaknesses of actuarial risk data and to contribute to developing guidance on best practice when using actuarial measures in adversarial settings. This paper is organized into six areas: (1) actuarial scales in practice; (2) understanding risk prediction concepts; (3) factors known to affect actuarial estimates; (4) whether group data can be used to assess risk in individual cases; (5) choosing which actuarial risk measure to use; and (6) reporting actuarial risk estimates.

Keywords:

• Actuarial risk scales
• risk assessment
• sexual offenders
• best practice