Publication Cover
Journal of Sexual Aggression
An international, interdisciplinary forum for research, theory and practice
Volume 15, 2009 - Issue 2
617
Views
7
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Practice papers

Best practice in conducting actuarial risk assessments with adult sexual offenders

&
Pages 193-211 | Published online: 30 Jun 2009

References

  • Allan , A. , Dawson , D. and Allan , M. M. 2006 . Prediction of the risk of male sexual reoffending in Australia . Australian Psychologist , 41 : 60 – 68 .
  • Amenta , A. E. , Guy , L. and Edens , J. F. 2003 . Sex offender risk assessment: A cautionary note regarding measures attempting to quantify violence risk . Journal of Forensic Psychology Practice , 3 : 39 – 50 .
  • Bagley , C. and Pritchard , C. 2000 . Criminality and violence in intra- and extra-familial child abusers in a 2-year cohort of convicted perpetrators . Child Abuse Review , 9 : 264 – 274 .
  • Baltieri , D. A. and de Andrade , A. G. 2008 . Comparing serial and nonserial sexual offenders: Alcohol and street drug consumption, impulsiveness and history of sexual abuse . Revista Brasileira de Psiquiatria , 30 : 25 – 31 .
  • Barbaree , H. E. 1997 . Evaluating treatment efficacy with sexual offenders: The insensitivity of recidivism studies to treatment effects . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 9 : 111 – 128 .
  • Barbaree , H. E. , Blanchard , R. and Langton , C. M. 2003 . “ The development of sexual aggression through the lifespan: The effect of age on sexual arousal and recidivism among sex offenders ” . In Understanding and Managing Sexually Coercive Behavior , Edited by: Prentky , R. A. , Janus , E. S. and Seto , M. C. Vol. 989 , 59 – 71 . New York : Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences .
  • Beech , A. R. 1998 . A psychometric typology of child abusers . International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology , 42 : 319 – 339 .
  • Beech , A. R. , Fisher , D. D. and Thornton , D. 2003 . Risk assessment of sex offenders . Professional Psychology: Research and Practice , 34 : 339 – 352 .
  • Bengtson , S. 2008 . Is newer better? A cross-validation of the Static-2002 and the Risk Matrix 2000 in a Danish sample of sexual offenders . Psychology, Crime and Law , 14 : 85 – 106 .
  • Borum , R. 1996 . Improving the clinical practice of violence risk assessment: Technology, guidelines and training . American Psychologist , 51 : 945 – 956 .
  • Cohen , J. 1988 . Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences , 2nd edn , Hillsdale, NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum .
  • Corbett , C. , Patel , V. , Erickson , M. and Friendship , C. 2003 . The violent reconvictions of sexual offenders . Journal of Sexual Aggression , 9 : 31 – 39 .
  • Cortoni , F. 2009 . “ Violence and women offenders ” . In Women and the Criminal Justice System: A Canadian Perspective , Edited by: Barker , J. 175 – 199 . Toronto : Emond Montgomery .
  • Cortoni , F. , Beech , A. R. & Craig , L. A. in press . Sexual offenders . In K. D. Browne , A. R. Beech & L. A. Craig Assessments in Forensic Practice: A Handbook . Wiley & Son .
  • Covington , J. R. 1997 . Preventive detention for sex offenders . Illinois Bar Journal , 85 : 493 – 498 .
  • Craig , L. A. 2008 . How should we understand the effect of age on sexual reconviction? . Journal of Sexual Aggression , 14 : 185 – 198 .
  • Craig , L. A. , Beech , A. R. and Browne , K. D. 2006 . Cross validation of the Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual and Violent scales . Journal of Interpersonal Violence , 21 : 621 – 633 .
  • Craig , L. A. , Browne , K. D. and Beech , A. R. 2008 . Assessing Risk in Sex Offenders: A Practitioner's Guide , Chichester : John Wiley & Son .
  • Craig , L. A. , Browne , K. D. , Hogue , T. E. and &. Stringer , I. 2004 . “ New directions in assessing risk for sex offenders ” . In Risk Assessment and Management: Issues in Forensic Psychology , Edited by: Macpherson , G. and Jones , L. Vol. 5 , 81 – 99 . Leicester : The British Psychological Society .
  • Craig , L. A. , Browne , K. D. and Stringer , I. 2003 . Risk scales and factors predictive of sexual offence recidivism . Trauma, Violence & Abuse , 4 : 45 – 68 .
  • Craig , L. A. , Browne , K. D. , Stringer , I. and Beech , A. 2004 . Limitations in actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: A methodological note . British Journal of Forensic Practice , 1 : 16 – 32 .
  • Craig , L. A. , Browne , K. D. , Stringer , I. and Hogue , T. E. 2008 . Sexual reconviction rates in the United Kingdom and actuarial estimates . Child Abuse & Neglect: The International Journal , 32 : 121 – 138 .
  • Craig , L. A. and Hutchinson , R. 2005 . Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: Risk, recidivism and treatment . Journal of Sexual Aggression , 11 : 289 – 304 .
  • Criminal Justice Act 1991 (issued August 2004) . Office of Public Sector Information. Home Office . Available at : http://www.opsi.gov.uk/ACTS/acts1991/ukpga_19910053_en_4 (accessed 26 January 2008) .
  • Dingwall , R. 1989 . “ Some problems about predicting child abuse and neglect ” . In Child Abuse: Public Policy and Professional Practice , Edited by: Stevenson , O. 28 – 53 . Hemel Hempstead : Harvester Wheatsheaf .
  • Donaldson , T. and Wollert , R. 2008 . A mathematical proof and example that Bayes's Theorem is fundamental to actuarial estimates of sexual recidivism risk . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 20 : 207 – 217 .
  • Doren , D. M. 1998 . Recidivism base rates, predictions of sex offender recidivism, and the “sexual predator” commitment laws . Behavioral Sciences and the Law , 16 : 97 – 114 .
  • Doren , D. M. 2002 . Evaluating Sex Offenders: A Manual for Civil Commitments and Beyond , Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage Publications Inc .
  • Doren , D. M. 2004 . Toward a multidimensional model of sexual recidivism risk . Journal of Interpersonal Violence , 19 : 835 – 856 .
  • Doren , D. M. and Epperson , D. L. 2001 . Great analysis, but problematic assumptions: A critique of Janus and Meehl (1997) . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 13 : 45 – 51 .
  • Ducro , C. and Pham , T. 2006 . Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 in Belgian sex offenders committed to a forensic facility . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 18 : 15 – 26 .
  • Epperson , D. L. , Kaul , J. D. & Hesselton , D. 1998 . Final Report on the Development of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) . Paper presented at the 17th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Vancouver, Canada, 14–17 October 1998 .
  • Eldridge , H. and Saradjian , J. 2000 . “ Replacing the function of abusive behaviors for the offender: Remaking relapse prevention in working with women who sexually abuse children ” . In Remaking Relapse Prevention With Sex Offenders: A Sourcebook , Edited by: Laws , D. R. , Hudson , S. M. and Ward , T. 402 – 426 . Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage Publications .
  • Erickson , M. and Friendship , C. 2002 . A typology of child abduction events . Legal and Criminological Psychology , 7 : 115 – 120 .
  • Falshaw , L. , Bastes , A. , Patel , V. , Corbett , C. and Friendship , C. 2003 . Assessing reconviction, reoffending and recidivism in a sample of UK sexual offenders . Legal and Criminological Psychology , 8 : 207 – 215 .
  • Fazel , S. , Sjöstedt , G. , Långström , N. and Grann , M. 2006 . Risk factors fro criminal recidivism in older sexual offenders . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 18 : 159 – 167 .
  • Field , A. 2000 . Discovering Statistics Using SPSS for Windows , London : Sage Publications .
  • Finkelhor , D. and Jones , L. 2006 . Why have child maltreatment and child victimization declined? . Journal of Social Issues , 62 : 685 – 716 .
  • Ford , H. and Cortoni , F. 2008 . “ Sexual deviance in females: Assessment and treatment ” . In Sexual Deviance , 2nd edn , Edited by: Laws , D. R. and O'Donohue , W. 508 – 526 . New York : Guilford Press .
  • Freeman , N. J. and Sandler , J.. 2008 . Female and male sex offenders: A comparison of recidivism patterns and risk factors . Journal of Interpersonal Violence , 23 : 1394 – 1413 .
  • Grayston , A. D. and De Luca , R. V. 1999 . Female perpetrators of child sexual abuse: A review of the clinical and empirical literature . Aggression and Violent Behavior , 4 : 93 – 106 .
  • Green , G. , Gray , N. S. and Willner , P. 2002 . Factors associated with criminal convictions for sexually inappropriate behavior in men with learning disabilities . Journal of Forensic Psychiatry , 13 : 578 – 607 .
  • Grove , W. M. and Meehl , P. E. 1996 . Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical–statistical controversy . Psychology, Public Policy, and Law , 2 : 293 – 323 .
  • Haag , A. M. 2005 . Do psychological interventions impact on actuarial measures: An analysis of the predictive validity of the Static-99 and the Static-2002 on a reconviction measure of sexual recidivism . Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Calgary, Alberta .
  • Hannah-Moffat , K. and Shaw , M. 2001 . Taking Risks: Incorporating Gender and Culture Into the Classification and Assessment of Federally Sentenced Women in Canada , Ottawa : Status of Women Canada .
  • Hanson , R. K. 1997 . The Development of a Brief Actuarial Risk Scale for Sexual Offence Recidivism (User Report no. 1997–04). Ottawa: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada. Available at : http://www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e199704/e199704.htm (accessed January 2009)
  • Hanson , R. K. 2005 . Twenty years of progress in violence risk assessment . Journal of Interpersonal Violence , 2 : 212 – 217 .
  • Hanson , R. K. 2006 . Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 18 : 343 – 356 .
  • Hanson , R. K. , Harris , A. J. R , Scott , T.-L. & Helmus , L. 2007 . Assessing the risk of sexual offenders on community supervision: The Dynamic Supervision Project (User Report 2007–05) . Ottawa, ON : Public Safety Canada . Available at: http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/_fl/crp2007-05-en.pdf (accessed 22 January 2008) .
  • Hanson , R. K. , Lloyd , C. D. , Helmus , L. & Thornton , D. 2008 . Using Multiple Samples to Estimate Percentile Ranks and Relative Risk Ratios for Actuarial Risk Tools: A Canadian Example Using Static-99 and Static-2002 . Unpublished manuscript. Available from the authors at Corrections Research, Public Safety Canada, Ottawa, ON .
  • Hanson , R. K. , Morton , K. E. and Harris , A. J. R. 2003 . Sexual offender recidivism risk: What we know and what we need to know . Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences , 989 : 154 – 166 .
  • Hanson , R. K. and Thornton , D. 2000 . Improving risk assessment for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales . Law and Human Behavior , 24 ( 1 ) : 119 – 136 .
  • Hanson , R. K. & Thornton , D. 2003 . Notes on the Development of a Static-2002 . Available at : http://ww2.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/200103_Static_2002_e.asp (accessed January 2009) .
  • Harkins , L. and Beech , A. R. 2007 . Measurement of the effectiveness of sex offender treatment . Aggression and Violent Behavior , 12 ( 1 ) : 36 – 44 .
  • Harris , G. 2003 . Men in his category have a 50% likelihood, but which half is he in? . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 15 : 389 – 392 .
  • Harris , G. T. , Rice , M. E. and Cormier , C. A. 2002 . Prospective replication of the violent risk appraisal guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients . Law and Human Behavior , 26 : 377 – 394 .
  • Harris , G. T. and Rice , M. E. 2003 . “ Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders ” . In Sexually Coercive Behavior: Understanding and Management , Edited by: Prentky , R. A. , Janus , E. S. and Seto , M. C. Vol. 989 , 198 – 210 . New York : Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences .
  • Harris , G. T. and Rice , M. E. 2007 . Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging or the passage of time . Criminal Justice and Behavior , 34 : 267 – 313 .
  • Harris , G. T. , Rice , M. E. & Quinsey , V. L. 2007 . Abandoning evidence-based risk appraisal in forensic practice: Comments on Hart et al British Journal of Psychiatry , 15 August, 2007. Electronic letters sent to the journal available from http://bjp.rcpsych.org/cgi/eletters/190/49/s60#6574
  • Harris , A. J. and Tough , S. 2004 . Should actuarial risk assessments be used with sex offenders who are intellectually disabled . Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities , 17 : 235 – 241 .
  • Hart , S. D. , Michie , C. and Cooke , D. J. 2007a . Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: Evaluating the ‘margins of error’ of group v. individual predictions of violence . British Journal of Psychiatry , 190 ( Suppl. 49 ) : 60 – 65 .
  • Hart , S. D. , Michie , C. and Cooke , D. J. 2007b . Authors’ reply . British Journal of Psychiatry , 191 : 561 – 562 .
  • Hart , S. D. , Webster , C. D. and Menzies , R. L. 1993 . A note on portraying the accuracy of violence predictions . Law and Human Behavior , 17 : 695 – 700 .
  • Helmus , L. , Hanson , R. K. & Thornton , D. 2009 . Reporting Static-99 in light of new research on recidivism norms . ATSA Forum, XX1 , 1 .
  • Janus , E. A. and Meehl , P. E. 1997 . Assessing the legal standard for predictions of dangerousness in sex offender commitment proceedings. Psychology . Public Policy and Law , 3 : 33 – 64 .
  • Jones , L. 2003 . “ Offense paralleling behaviour (OPB) as a framework for assessment and interventions with offenders ” . In Applying Psychology to Forensic Practice , Edited by: Needs , A. and Towl , G. 34 – 63 . Oxford, Blackwell Publishers Ltd .
  • Kingston , D. A. , Yates , P. M. , Firestone , P. , Babchishin , K. and Bradford , J. 2008 . Long term predictive validity of the Risk Matrix 2000: A comparison with the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 20 : 466 – 484 .
  • Krueger , J. 2007 . Research bulletin: Sex offender populations, recidivism and actuarial assessment . New York State: Division of Probation and Correctional Alternatives. Available at: http://dpca.state.ny.us/pdfs/somgmtbulletinmay2007.pdf (accessed 26 January 2008).
  • Langton , C. M. , Barbaree , H. E. , Harkins , L. and Peacock , E. J. 2006 . Sex offenders response to treatment and its association with recidivism as a function of psychopathy . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 18 : 99 – 120 .
  • Langton , C. M. , Barbaree , H. E. , Seto , M. , Hansen , K. T. , Harkins , L. and Peacock , E. J. 2007 . Reliability and validity of the Static-2002 among adult sex offenders with reference to treatment status . Criminal Justice and Behavior , 34 : 616 – 640 .
  • Lees , S. 1996 . Carnal Knowledge: Rape on Trial , London : Hamish Hamilton .
  • Lindsay , W. R. , Elliot , S. F. and Astell , A. 2004 . Predictors of sexual offence recidivism in offenders with intellectual disabilities . Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities , 17 : 299 – 305 .
  • Lindsay , W. R. , Hogue , T. E. , Taylor , J. L. , Steptoe , L. , Mooney , P. O'Brien , G. 2008 . Risk assessment in offenders with intellectual disability: A comparison across three levels of security . International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology , 52 : 90 – 111 .
  • Lindsay , W. R. and Taylor , J. L. 2009 . “ The assessment of treatment related issues and risk in sexual offenders and abusers with ID ” . In Assessment and Treatment of Sexual Offenders: A Handbook , Edited by: Beech , A. R. , Craig , L. A. and Browne , K. D. 217 – 236 . Chichester : Wiley-Blackwell .
  • Miller , H. A. , Amenta , A. and Conroy , M. 2005 . Sexually violent predator evaluations: Empirical evidence, strategies for professionals, and research directions . Law and Human Behavior , 29 : 29 – 54 .
  • Nathan , P. and Ward , T. 2002 . Female sex offenders: Clinical and demographic features . Journal of Sexual Aggression , 8 : 5 – 21 .
  • National Parole Board (NPB) 2004 . Evaluation report for The National Parole Board's Effective Corrections and Citizen Engagement Initiatives 2000–2003 . Available at: http://www.npbcnlc.gc.ca/rprts/pdf/ecce_2000_2003/ecce_2000_2003_e.pdf (accessed 30 October 2008) .
  • Packard , R. 2002 . Age & Sexual Recidivism . Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Washington Chapter of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Blaine, WA, 22 February .
  • Parole Board for England and Wales August 2004 . Directions to the Parole Board under life sentence prisoners . Available at : http://www.paroleboard.gov.uk/policy_and_guidance/secretary_of_states_directions/directions_august_2004/ (accessed 30 October 2008) [Also available from The Parole Board for England and Wales, Grenadier House, 99–105 Horseferry Road, London, SW1P 2DX.]
  • Phenix , A. , Doren , D. , Helmus , L. , Hanson , R. K & Thornton , D. 2008 . Coding rules for Static-2002 . Available at: http://www.static99.org/pdfdocs/static2002codingrules.pdf (accessed 22 January 2008) .
  • Prentky , R. A. and Lee , A. F. S. 2007 . Effect of age-at-release on long term sexual re-offence rates in civilly committed sexual offenders . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 119 : 43 – 59 .
  • Quinsey , V. L. , Harris , G. T. , Rice , M. E. and Cormier , C. A. 2006 . Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk , 2nd edn , Washington, DC : American Psychological Association .
  • Rice , M. E. , Harris , G. T. , Lang , C. and Cormier , C. 2006 . Violent sex offenses: How are they best measured from official records . Law and Human Behavior , 30 : 525 – 541 .
  • Skelton , A. , Riley , D. , Wales , D. and Vess , J. 2006 . Assessing risk for sexual offenders in New Zealand: Development and validation of a computer-scored risk measure . Journal of Sexual Aggression , 12 : 277 – 286 .
  • Skelton , A. and Vess , J. 2008 . Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk . Journal of Sexual Aggression , 14 : 199 – 209 .
  • Slovic , P. , Monahan , J. and MacGregor , D. G. 2000 . Violence risk assessment and risk communication: The effects of using actual cases, providing instruction, and employing probability versus frequency formats . Law and Human Behavior , 24 : 271 – 296 .
  • Stadtland , C. , Hollweg , M. , Kleindienst , N. , Dietl , J. , Reich , U. and Nedopil , N. 2006 . Evaluation of risk assessment instruments for sex offenders . Nervenarzt , 77 : 587 – 595 .
  • Swets , J. A. , Dawes , R. M. and Monahan , J. 2000 . Better decisions through science . Scientific America , 155 : 70 – 76 .
  • Terry , K. J. 2008 . Stained glass: The nature and scope of child sexual abuse in the Catholic church . Criminal Justice and Behavior , 35 : 549 – 569 .
  • Thornton , D. 2002 . Constructing and testing a framework for dynamic risk assessment . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , 14 : 139 – 153 .
  • Thornton , D. , Mann , R. , Webster , S. , Blud , L. , Travers , R Friendship , C. 2003 . “ Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism ” . In Understanding and Managing Sexually Coercive Behavior , Edited by: Prentky , R. , Janus , E. and Seto , M. Vol. 989 , 225 – 235 . New York : Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences .
  • Webster , S. D. , Mann , R. E. , Carter , A. J. , Long , J. , Milner , R. J. , O'Brein , M. D. , Wakeling , H. C. and Ray , N. L. 2006 . Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders. Psychology . Crime and Law , 12 : 439 – 452 .
  • Wechsler , D. 1999 . Manual for the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI) , San Antonio, TX : The Psychological Corporation .
  • Wollert , R. 2006 . Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarial tests are used to identify sexually violent predators: An application of Bayes's Theorem . Psychology, Public Policyand Law , 12 : 56 – 85 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.