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Articles

Violence begets violence: Why states should not lethally repress popular protest

Pages 893-913 | Received 06 Dec 2015, Accepted 18 May 2016, Published online: 30 Jun 2016
 

Abstract

State repression committed upon political opposition is one of the most commonly reoccurring events in the age of the nation state. A popular question has been whether repression increases or decreases mobilisation during periods of social conflict. In this study, I demonstrate that when repression is aimed at large social movements, regardless of movement strategy and characteristics, repression will, on average, increase dissident mobilisation. These effects are even greater when the movement seeks regime change and is highly threatening. Statistical analysis gives support to my argument which concurrently raises important policy-oriented questions regarding civil resistance and governmental human rights practices.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes on contributor

Alexei Anisin received his PhD in 2016 in the Department of Government at the University of Essex.

Notes

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2. Erica Chenoweth and Orion A. Lewis, ‘Unpacking Nonviolent Campaigns: Introducing the NAVCO 2.0 Dataset’, Journal of Peace Research 50, no. 3 (2013): 415–23. doi:10.1177/0022343312471551.

3. United Nations Human Rights Council, ‘Rights Council, 25th Regular Session of the Human Rights Council’, 3–28 March 2014, http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/RegularSessions/Session25/Pages/25RegularSession.aspx

4. Tedd Gurr, Why Men Rebel (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1970).

5. Christian Davenport, ‘State Repression and Political Order’, Annual Review of Political Science 10, no. 1 (2007): 1–23.

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8. Christopher M. Sullivan, ‘Undermining Resistance Mobilization, Repression, and the Enforcement of Political Order’, Journal of Conflict Resolution (February 2015).

9. Phillip Ayoub, ‘Repressing Protest: Threat and Weakness in the European Context, 1975–1989’, Mobilization: An International Quarterly 15, no. 4 (2010): 465–88.

10. Jennifer Earl, ‘Tanks, Tear Gas, and Taxes: Toward a Theory of Movement Repression’, Sociological Theory 21, no. 1 (2003): 44–68. doi:10.1111/1467-9558.00175.

11. Gene Sharp, The Politics of Nonviolent Action: Part One, the Methods of Nonviolent Action (Boston, MA: Porter Sargent, 1973); Gene Sharp, Sharp’s Dictionary of Power and Struggle: Language of Civil Resistance in Conflicts (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011).

12. Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict (New York: Columbia University Press, 2011).

13. Ronald Francisco, ‘After the Massacre: Mobilization in the Wake of Harsh Repression’, Mobilization: An International Quarterly 9, no. 2 (2004): 107–26.

14. Jonathan Sutton, Charles R. Butcher, and Isak Svensson, ‘Explaining Political Jiu-Jitsu Institution-Building and the Outcomes of Regime Violence against Unarmed Protests’, Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 5 (2014): 559–73.

15. Conway W. Henderson, ‘Conditions Affecting the Use of Political Repression’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 35, no. 1 (1991): 120–42.

16. Emily Hencken Ritter, ‘Policy Disputes, Political Survival, and the Onset and Severity of State Repression’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 58, no. 1 (2014): 143–68.

17. Jan Henryk Pierskalla, ‘Protest, Deterrence, and Escalation: The Strategic Calculus of Government Repression’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 54, no. 1 (2010): 117–45.

18. Alexei Anisin, ‘The Russian Bloody Sunday massacre: a discursive account of nonviolent transformation’, Politics, Groups, and Identities 2, no. 4 (2014): 643–660.

19. Steven C. Poe, and C. Neal Tate, ‘Repression of Human Rights to Personal Integrity in the 1980s: A Global Analysis’, The American Political Science Review 88, no. 4 (1994): 853–72.

20. E.A. Ziegenhagen, The Regulation of Political Conflict (Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 1986); Christian Davenport, ‘Multi-Dimensional Threat Perception and State Repression: An Inquiry into Why States Apply Negative Sanctions’, American Journal of Political Science 39, no. 3 (1995): 683–713. doi:10.2307/2111650.

21. Sabine C. Carey, Michael P. Colaresi, and Neil J. Mitchell, ‘Governments, Informal Links to Militias, and Accountability’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, no. 5 (2015): 850–76.

22. Sabine C. Carey, ‘The Use of Repression as a Response to Domestic Dissent’, Political Studies 58, no. 1 (2010): 167–86.

23. Kristine Eck, ‘Repression by Proxy How Military Purges and Insurgency Impact the Delegation of Coercion’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, no. 5 (2015): 924–46.

24. Lucia Liste Muñoz and Indra de Soysa, ‘The Blog versus Big Brother: New and Old Information Technology and Political Repression, 1980–2006’, The International Journal of Human Rights 15, no. 8 (2011): 1315–30. doi:10.1080/13642987.2010.518729.

25. Ibid.; Chenoweth and Lewis, ‘Unpacking Nonviolent Campaigns’.

26. Philip Hultquist, ‘Is Collective Repression an Effective Counterinsurgency Technique? Unpacking the Cyclical Relationship between Repression and Civil Conflict’, Conflict Management and Peace Science (October 2015). doi:10.1177/0738894215604972.

27. Sabine C. Carey, ‘The Dynamic Relationship Between Protest and Repression’, Political Research Quarterly 59, no. 1 (2006): 1–11. doi:10.1177/106591290605900101.

28. David Hess, and Brian Martin, ‘Repression, Backfire, and the Theory of Transformative Events’, Mobilization: An International Quarterly 11, no. 2 (2006): 249–67.

29. For example, Francisco, ‘After the Massacre’; Sutton et al., ‘Explaining Political Jiu-Jitsu Institution-Building’.

30. Leonie Ansems De Vries and Jorg Spieker, ‘Hobbes, War, Movement’, Global Society 23, no. 4 (2009): 453–74.

31. Halvard Buhaug and Scott Gates, ‘The Geography of Civil War’, Journal of Peace Research 39, no. 4 (2002): 417–33.

32. France 24 News Agency, ‘Africa – Police Open Fire on Protesters in Northwestern Tunisia’, France 24, 2011, http://www.france24.com/en/20110205-police-open-fire-protesters-northern-el-kef-tunisia (accessed 2 November 2011).

33. Oona A. Hathaway, ‘Why Do Countries Commit to Human Rights Treaties?’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 4 (2007): 588–621.

34. Daniel W. Hill, ‘Avoiding Obligation Reservations to Human Rights Treaties’, Journal of Conflict Resolution (February 2015). doi:10.1177/0022002714567947.

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