Refugees and the Study of Civil War

Abstract

This introduction examines the current literature on refugees and civil conflict. Rather than treating refugees as the unfortunate victims of conflict and the by-product of war, recent literature places forced migration squarely within the study of political violence. While humanitarian issues are certainly significant, refugees are also important political actors who play an active part in conflict dynamics. Three themes are considered here: conflict as a cause of forced migration, forced migration as a cause of conflict, and policy responses to refugee flows. This contribution also outlines promising areas for future research and introduces the articles in this special issue.

Notes

 1. Jeff Crisp, ‘No Solutions in Sight: the Problem of Protracted Refugee Situations in Africa’, New Issues in Refugee Research, United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) Working Paper 75 (2003).

 2. James D. Fearon., and David D. Laitin, ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’, American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003), pp.75–90; Nils Petter Gleditsch, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg and Havard Strand, ‘Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset’, Journal of Peace Research 39/5 (2002) pp.615–37.

 3. Fearon et al., ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’ (note 3); Håvard Hegre, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Petter Gleditsch, ‘Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992’, American Political Science Review 95/1 (2001) pp.33–48; Mark I. Lichbach, ‘Deterrence or Escalation? The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression and Dissent’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 31/2 (1987) pp.266–97; Edward N. Muller and Erich Weede, ‘Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 34/4 (1990) pp.624–51; Barbara F. Walter, ‘Building Reputation: Why Governments Fight Some Separatists but not Others’, American Journal of Political Science 50 /2 (2006) pp.313–30.

 4. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Greed and Greivance in Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers 56/4 (2004) pp.563–95; David Cunningham, ‘Veto Players and Civil War Duration’, American Journal of Political Science 50/4 (2006); Karl DeRouen and David Sobek, ‘The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome’, Journal of Peace Research 41/3 (2004) pp.303–20; James Fearon, ‘Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?’ Journal of Peace Research 41 /3 (2004) pp.275–301. Fearon et al., ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’ (note 3). Hegre et al., ‘Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? (note 3). T. David Mason, Joseph Weingarten, and Patrick Fett, ‘Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars’, Political Research Quarterly 52/2 (1999) pp.239–68. Barbara F. Walter, ‘The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement’, International Organization 51/3 (1997) pp.335–64.

 5. Lindsay Heger and Idean Salehyan, ‘Ruthless Rulers: Coalition Size and the Severity of Civil Conflict’, International Studies Quarterly Forthcoming (2007); Bethany Lacina, ‘Explaining the Severity of Civil Wars’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 50/2 (2006) pp.276–89.

 6. Scott Gates, ‘Recruitment and Allegiance: the Microfoundations of Rebellion’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 46/1 (2002) pp.111–30; Jeremy Weinstein, ‘Resources and the Information Problem in Rebel Recruitment.’ Journal of Conflict Resolution 49/4 (2005) pp.598–624.

 7. Albert O. Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States (Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP 1970).

 8. United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951, Article 1. Full text available online at < www.unhchr.ch/html/menu3/b/o_c_ref.htm> (accessed 25 April 2006).

 9. Leon Gordenker, Refugees in International Politics (New York: Columbia UP 1987).

10. B.S.Chimni, International Refugee Law: A Reader (New Delhi: Sage Publications 2000). Aristide Zolberg, Astri Suhrke, and Sergio Aguayo, Escape from Violence: Conflict and the Refugee Crisis in the Developing World (New York: Oxford UP 1989).

11. Myron Weiner, ‘Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighborhoods: and Inquiry into the Causes of Refugee Flows.’ International Security 21/1 (1996) pp.5–42. Zolberg et al., ‘Escape from Violence’ (note 10).

12. Myron Weiner, ‘Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighborhoods: and Inquiry into the Causes of Refugee Flows.’ International Security 21/1 (1996) pp.5–42. Zolberg et al., ‘Escape from Violence’ (note 10)

13. Nora Hamilton and Norma Stoltz Chinchilla, ‘Central American Migration: A Framework for Analysis’, Latin American Research Review 26 /1 (1991) pp.75–110.

14. Zolberg et al., ‘Escape from Violence’ (note 10).

15. Susanne Schmeidl, ‘Exploring the Causes of Forced Migration: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, 1971–1990’, Social Science Quarterly 78/2 (1997) pp.284–308.

16. Christian Davenport, Will Moore and Steven Poe, ‘Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Refugee Movements, 1964–1989’, International Interactions 29/1 (2003) pp.27–55.

17. While several recent works focus on these micro-motivations in developing their theoretical arguments, due to data limitations most statistical analyses of forced migration continue to use broad, country-level indicators.

18. Will Moore and Stephen Shellman, ‘Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952–1995’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 40/5 (2004) pp.723–45.

19. Clair Apodaca, ‘Human Rights Abuses: Precursor to Refugee Flight?’ Journal of Refugee Studies 11/1 (1998) pp.80–93; Jean-Paul Azam and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Violence Against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror?’ Journal of Peace Research 39/4 (2002) pp.461–85.

20. Will Moore and Stephen Shellman. ‘Refugee or Internally Displaced Person: To Where Should One Flee?’ Comparative Political Studies 39/5 (June 2006) pp.599–622.

21. Will Moore, and Stephen Shellman, ‘Whither Will They Go? A Global Analysis of Refugee Flows, 1955–1995’, Unpublished Typescript, Florida State University (2005).

22. Eric Neumayer, ‘Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe’, International Studies Quarterly 49/3 2005) pp.389–409.

23. Myron Weiner, ‘Security, Stability, and International Migration’, International Security 17/3 (1992–93) pp.91–126.

24. Myron Weiner, ‘Security, Stability, and International Migration’, International Security 17/3 (1992–93) pp.91–126 p.91.

25. Alan Dowty and Gil Loescher, ‘Refugee Flows as Grounds for International Action’, International Security 21/1 (1996) pp.43–71; Gil Loescher, Beyond Charity: International Cooperation and the Global Refugee Crisis (Oxford: OUP 1993); Michael Teitelbaum, ‘Immigration, Refugees, and Foreign Policy’, International Organization 38/3 (1984) pp.429–50; Michael Teitelbaum and Myron Weiner, Threatened Peoples, Threatened Borders: World Migration and US Policy (New York: W.W Norton 1995); Zolberg et al., ‘Escape from Violence’ (note 10).

26. Zolberg et al., ‘Escape from Violence’ (note 10).

27. Sarah Kenyon Lischer, Dangerous Sanctuaries: Refugee Camps, Civil War, and the Dilemmas of Humanitarian Aid (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 2005).

28. John Stedman and Fred Tanner, Refugee Manipulation: War, Politics, and the Abuse of Human Suffering (Washington DC: Brookings Institution 2003).

29. Idean Salehyan, ‘Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups’, Typescript, University of North Texas (2005).

30. James Murdoch and Todd Sandler, ‘Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 46/1 (2002) pp.91–110.

31. Ghobarah Hazem, Paul Huth, and Bruce M. Russett, ‘Civil Wars Kill and Maim People-Long after the Shooting Stops’, American Political Science Review 97/2 (2003) pp.189–202.

32. Adrian Martin, ‘Environmental Conflict Between Refugee and Host Communities’, Journal of Peace Research 42/3 (2005) pp. 329–46.

33. Paul Collier, V.L. Elliot, Haavard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol, and Nicholas Sambanis, Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy (Washington DC: World Bank /Oxford UP 2003).

34. Idean Salehyan, and Kristian S. Gleditsch, ‘Refugees and the Spread of Civil War’, International Organization 60/2 (2006) pp.335–66.

35. Monty Marshall, and Ted R. Gurr, Peace and Conflict: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy (College Park, MA: Center for International Development and Conflict Management 2003); Nicholas Sambanis, ‘A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Literature on Civil War’, Defense and Peace Economics 13/3 (2002) pp.215–43.

36. Kevin Hartigan, ‘Matching Humanitarian Norms with Cold, Hard Interests: the Making of Refugee Policies in Mexico and Honduras, 1980–1989’, International Organization 46/3 (1992) pp.709–30; Marc R. Rosenblum, and Idean Salehyan, ‘Norms and Interests in US Asylum Enforcement’, Journal of Peace Research 41/6 (2004) pp.677–97; Eiko Thielemann, ‘Between Interests and Norms: Explaining Burden-Sharing in the European Union’, Journal of Refugee Studies 16/3 (2003) pp.253–73.

37. Martha Finnemore, and Kathryn Sikkink, ‘International Norm Dynamics and Politica Change’, International Organization 52/2 (1998) pp.887–917; Christian Joppke (eds.), Challenge to the Nation-State: Immigration in Western Europe and the United States (New York: Oxford UP 1998); Yasemin Soysal, Limits of Citizenship (Univ. of Chicago Press 1994).

38. Loescher, Beyond Charity (note 25). Astri Suhrke, ‘Burden-Sharing during Refugee Emergencies: the Logic of Collective versus National Action’, Journal of Refugee Studies 11/4 (1998) pp.396–415. Teitelbaum, ‘Immigration, Refugees, and Foreign Policy’ (note 25).

39. Karen Jacobsen, ‘Factors Influencing the Policy Responses of Host Governments to Mass Refugee Influxes’, International Migration Review 30/3 (1996) pp. 655–78.

40. Hartigan, ‘Matching Humanitarian Norms’ (note 36).

41. Eric Neumayer, ‘Asylum Recognition Rates in Western Europe: the Determinants, Variation, and Lack of Convergence’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49/1 (2005) pp.43–66.

42. Rosenblum and Salehyan, ‘Norms and Interests in US Asylum Enforcement’ (note 36).

43. Suhrke, ‘Burden-Sharing during Refugee Emergencies’ (note 38).

44. Thielemann, ‘Between Interests and Norms’ (note 36).

45. Sarah Kenyon Lischer, ‘Collateral Damage: Humanitarian Assistance as a Cause of Conflict’, International Security 28 (2003) pp.179–209.

46. Michael Barnett and Martha Finnemore, ‘The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations’, International Organization 53/4 (1999) pp.699–732.

47. Michael Barnett, ‘Humanitarianism with a Sovereign Face: UNHCR in the Global Undertow’, International Migration Review 35/1 (2001) pp.244–77.

48. Halvard Buhaug and Scott Gates, ‘The Geography of Civil War’, Journal of Peace Research 39/4 (2002) pp.417–33; Clionadh Raleigh and Havard Hegre, ‘Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset’, Typescript, Centre for the Study of Civil War, International Peace Research Institute Oslo (2005).

49. Erik Melander and Magnus Öberg, ‘Time to Go? Duration Dependence in Forced Migration’, International Interactions 32/2 (2006) pp.129–52.

50. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Kyle C. Beardsley, ‘Nosy Neighbors: Third Party Actors In Central American Conflicts’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 48/3 (2004) pp.379–402. Joshua S. Goldstein and Jon C. Pevehouse, ‘Reciprocity, Bullying, and International Cooperation: Time-Series Analysis of the Bosnia Conflict’, American Political Science Review 91/3 (1997) pp.515–30.

51. William Deane Stanley, ‘Economic Migrants or Refugees from Violence? A Time-Series Analysis of Salvadoran Migration to the United States’, Latin American Research Review 22/1 (1987) pp.132–54.