When to Get Out of the Trench? Using Smart Pressure to Resolve Civil Wars

Abstract

This article puts forward a theory of smart pressure, which emphasises that third-party pressure only works if the conflict parties under pressure can agree with the endpoint of this pressure. Hence, a potential mutually acceptable agreement needs to be formulated before a mediator starts to apply pressure. To this argument, this article employs two case studies: the mediation efforts leading up to the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement concluded in 2005 and the Darfur Peace Agreement concluded in 2006. These cases support the smart pressure theory and suggest that mediators need to be modest about what they can accomplish using pressure.

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Neil MacFarlane, Johan Brosché and Birte Vogel for helpful comments and suggestions. Any mistakes are my own.

Notes

1. Interview with Lazaro Sumbeiywo in Addis Ababa, 1 February 2015.

2. Telephone interview with Abdulaziz Juma, 11 February 2015.

3. Interview with Sayed el-Tayeb in Khartoum, 8 January 2015.

4. Interview with Vladimir Zhagora in Boston, 16 October 2014.

5. Interview with Abdullahi El-Tom in Oxford, 22 February 2015.

6. Interview with Interview with Alex De Waal, adviser to the AU mediation team, in Boston, 3 September 2014.

7. Interview with Abdullahi El-Tom in Oxford, 22 February 2015.

8. Confirmed in an interview with Hilary Benn in London, 21 November 2014.