Israeli military intelligence’s understanding of the security environment in light of the Arab Awakening

Abstract

The Arab Awakening was a strategic surprise for the Israeli military intelligence (AMAN), but did not cause immediate damage for the security of Israel because of the internal character of events. At an early stage AMAN recognized the general direction of the upheavals, which were more conflicts rather than the establishment of a democratic new order in the Middle East. The Arab Awakening operated as an intervening factor, escalating some of Israel’s major security challenges and de-escalating others. AMAN provided strategic intelligence warnings (of Iran’s military nuclear plan) and actionable intelligence (about Hezbollah’s infrastructure across the Syrian border), but presumed to assess the stability of regimes in a chaotic environment (Egypt, Syria), faced difficulties in monitoring capabilities of new actors (ISIS) and intentions of adversaries (Hamas). Fighting Hamas and Hezbollah, AMAN might subordinate itself to the strategy of deterrence rather than defeating the enemy. AMAN’s chiefs viewed the Arab Awakening as a facilitator to implement an unbalanced intelligence concept focusing on “shaping reality”, undermining the strategic analysis that must remain central to intelligence work.

Keywords:

• Israel
• intelligence
• terror
• guerrilla
• air force
• operation

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank Professor William Harris from the Department of Politics at the University of Otago for helping me with this article.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.