Analytical Derivation of Seismic Fragility Curves for Historical Masonry Structures Based on Stochastic Analysis of Uncertain Material Parameters

ABSTRACT

This work presents a probabilistic method to assess the seismic vulnerability of historical masonry structures, such as churches or cathedrals, including uncertainty analysis of the material parameters. The proposed approach considers the pushover analysis using the finite element method for the structural evaluation of the seismic behaviour of masonry structures. A stochastic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation investigates the effect of the uncertainty of the structural members’ mechanical parameters on the evaluation of the seismic fragility. The method is applied to the seismic assessment of the bay structure of Santa Maria del Mar church in Barcelona, Spain. This case study is characterised by complex geometry and material heterogeneity, and shows to be sensitive enough to the uncertainty of the material properties to experience two possible collapse mechanisms in case of an earthquake. The study presents how to derive analytical seismic fragility curves by considering the uncertainties regarding the material properties and the different types of collapse mechanism.

KEYWORDS:

• Finite element analysis
• gothic
• masonry church
• monte carlo simulation
• pushover analysis
• seismic fragility curves
• stochastic analysis

Acknowledgments

This research has received the financial support from the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and from the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities of the Spanish Government, as well as that of the ERDF (European Regional Development Fund) through projects MULTIMAS (Multiscale techniques for the experimental and numerical analysis of the reliability of masonry structures, ref. num. BIA2015-63882-P) and SEVERUS (Multilevel evaluation of seismic vulnerability and risk mitigation of masonry buildings in resilient historical urban centres, ref. num. RTI2018-099589-B-I00). The work was supported by the European Union within the framework of the Erasmus Mundus Advanced Master in Structural Analysis of Monuments and Historical Constructions (SAHC).

The authors would like to acknowledge Prof. Sergio Lagomarsino for the fruitful discussions after the presentation of the research during the SAHC 2018 conference in Cusco, Perú.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad [BIA2015-63882-P,RTI2018-099589-B-I00].