Predictors of displacement behaviour during the 2006 Lebanon war

Abstract

The July 2006 war in Lebanon was one of the country's shortest wars. Yet perhaps it was also the worst interstate war in the history of Lebanon. Over the course of 33 days, the war resulted in over 1000 deaths, thousands of injuries, large-scale destruction of infrastructure and properties, as well as massive population displacements. Approximately a third of the Lebanese population was displaced during the war. Population-based survey data collected in early 2007 and logistic regression models were used to examine the effects of some demographic and socio-economic factors on displacement, stratified by war-affected and non-affected areas. The sample was restricted to adults who were at least 18 years old. We found that the intensity of the conflict as captured by the region of residence was understandably the most important variable in predicting displacement. The odds of displacement were higher for those who were younger in age, married or who had obtained a higher education. Females and those of Lebanese nationality had higher odds of displacement than their male and non-Lebanese counterparts, but only in war-damaged areas. Interestingly, household composition and size, economic standing and car ownership were not related to the odds of displacement. Findings from the present study may help policy-makers and humanitarian agencies in their planning efforts during emergencies, including wars.

Keywords:

• displacement
• conflict
• war
• complex emergencies
• Middle East
• Lebanon

Notes

1. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Population Association of America meetings in Dallas, TX, 2010.