The limits – and limiters – of external influence: donors, the Ugandan Electoral Commission and the 2011 elections

Abstract

This article explores the role of international ‘donors’ in the lead-up to the 2011 Ugandan elections, focusing particularly on their engagement with the issue of Electoral Commission partiality. Controversially reappointed without consultation in 2009 by Uganda's President, Yoweri Museveni, the Ugandan Electoral Commission was perceived as unacceptably pro-government by opposition parties, civil society and donors. Its seven commissioners’ administration of the 2011 polls cast a shadow of illegitimacy over the process long before the results were declared. This study attempts to explain why donors ultimately drew back from taking a ‘political’ (as opposed to a ‘technical’) approach to the matter in their dealings with the Museveni regime, in spite of their willingness to do so elsewhere (including in Nigeria) and with regard to other areas of disagreement with Kampala. It is argued that three major factors led donors to take the inconsistent and ineffective approach(es) they did: competing foreign policy priorities (particularly in relation to security – Somalia – and trade – oil); the internal politics of the donor community; and an arguably misplaced perception, in the minds of many donor officials, that their missions did not possess sufficient influence over the regime to alter its stance on the issue. The findings of this study, it is suggested, are of broader relevance for policy-makers and scholars, particularly in the fields of democratization and international development.

Keywords:

• Uganda
• elections
• donors
• democratization

Acknowledgements

An earlier version of this article was presented in 2011 at the US African Studies Association Annual Conference in Washington, DC, and the author thanks the participants at this event, particularly Holger Bernt Hansen, together with colleagues in Oxford, Kampala and Birmingham and two anonymous reviewers for helpful feedback. Fieldwork costs for the article were funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (award Numbers PTA-031-2007-ES/F024509/1 and PTA-026-27-2861) and Institut Français de Recherche en Afrique, Nairobi.

Notes

1. Crawford, Foreign Aid and Political Reform, pp. 163–81.

2. Lindberg and Morrison, “Are African Voters,” p. 98; Lynch and Crawford, “Democratization in Africa,” pp. 279–80.

3. Makara et al., “Turnaround.”

4. Tripp, Museveni's Uganda, pp. 9–38.

5. Cammack, “Logic of African Neopatrimonialism,” pp. 606–09.

6. Rakner and Svåsand, Maybe Free But Not Fair; Svåsand, “Financing Elections in Malawi.”

7. Elklit and Reynolds, “Impact of Election Administration”; Makulilo, “Independent Electoral Commission”; Svåsand, “Financing Elections in Malawi.”

8. Makulilo, “Independent Electoral Commission,” pp. 442–4.

9. Elklit and Reynolds, “Impact of Election Administration”; Rakner, “Management of the 2009 Electoral Process.”

10. Lyons, Ethiopia in 2005, pp. 1–2.

11. Suberu, “Nigeria's Muddled Elections,” pp. 97–8.

12. Throup, “The Count”; Brown, “Donor responses,” p. 392.

13. Chabal, “Power in Africa Reconsidered,” p. 30.

14. Cammack, “Logic of African Neopatrimonialism,” p. 607.

15. Khan and Sharma, IMF Conditionality; de Renzio, “Primacy of Domestic Politics”; Brown, “Authoritarian Leaders and Multiparty Elections,” pp. 730–1.

16. Mosley et al., Aid and Power, vol. 1, pp. 168–71.

17. Whitfield and Fraser, “Negotiating Aid,” pp. 345–50.

18. Cammack, “Logic of African Neopatrimonialism,” pp. 609–12.

19. Carothers, “Democracy Assistance,” pp. 7–8.

20. Carothers, “Democracy Assistance,” pp. 7–8.

21. Interview with a UK official, 23 November 2010; interview with a donor official, 10 February 2011; interview with a European official, 31 March 2011.

22. Hauser, “Ugandan Relations with Western Donors,” pp. 625–6, 633–4; Tangri and Mwenda, “Politics, Donors and the Ineffectiveness,” pp. 119–21.

23. Hauser, “Ugandan Relations with Western Donors,” pp. 625–6, 633–4; Tangri and Mwenda, “Politics, Donors and the Ineffectiveness,” pp. 119–21.

24. Adam and Gunning, “Redesigning the Aid Contract,” pp. 2046–9; Epstein, Invisible Cure, pp. 186–8.

25. Hauser, “Ugandan Relations with Western Donors,” p. 634; Fisher, “Managing Donor Perceptions,” pp. 413–22.

26. Hauser, “Ugandan Relations with Western Donors,” p. 634; interview with a former US official, 19 November 2009.

27. Harrison, “Post-Conditionality Politics,” pp. 672–3.

28. Arieff and Ploch, The Lord's Resistance Army, p. 11; Tangri and Mwenda, “Politics, Donors and the Ineffectiveness,” pp. 120–1; Green, “Patronage, District Creation, and Reform,” p. 87; Tangri and Mwenda, “President Museveni,” pp. 45–6.

29. Arieff and Ploch, The Lord's Resistance Army, p. 11; Daily Monitor (Kampala), “Britain Suspends Aid to Uganda.”

30. Tangri and Mwenda, “Politics, Donors and the Ineffectiveness,” pp. 101–24; Tripp, Museveni's Uganda, pp. 185–8.

31. Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Geographical Distribution.

32. Mwenda and Tangri, “Patronage Politics,” pp. 452–3.

33. Interview with a former senior US official, 10 November 2009; Independent (Kampala), “We Need a Clean Election in 2011.”

34. Tangri, “Politics and Presidential Term Limits,” p. 192; interview with a former senior European diplomat, 5 May 2009.

35. Tangri and Mwenda, “President Museveni,” p. 46.

36. Therkildsen, “Uganda's Referendum 2000,” p. 233.

37. Independent (Kampala), “We Need a Clean Election in 2011”; interview with a former ‘US diplomatic observer’, 17 November 2009.

38. Makara et al., “Turnaround.”

39. Interview with a former senior European diplomat, 5 May 2009.

40. Interview with Simon Osborn (Deepening Democracy Programme, Kampala, 2008–2011), 9 February 2010.

41. Makara et al., “Turnaround,” pp. 270–1.

42. European Union Election Observation Mission (EUEOM), Uganda; Supreme Court of Uganda, “Rtd. Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye.”

43. Independent (Kampala), “Are Electoral Commissioners Cadres.”

44. EUEOM, Uganda, pp. 16–17.

45. Independent (Kampala), “Are Electoral Commissioners Cadres.”

46. Mudoola, “Political Transitions Since Idi Amin,” pp. 287, 297; Independent (Kampala), “Electoral Commissions, Africa's New Kingmakers?”; Sunday Vision (Kampala), “Uganda's Often Controversial Polls.”

47. Human Rights Watch, Uganda: Not a Level Playing Field, p. 6.

48. Human Rights Watch, Uganda: Not a Level Playing Field, p. 6; Daily Monitor (Kampala), “Kasujja's EC was Corrupt.”

49. EUEOM, Uganda, p. 41.

50. Interview with a European official, 31 March 2011.

51. Including in a May 2010 meeting with a junior DFID minister (BHC2, “eGram No. 6052/10”) and in an October 2010 meeting with FCO Minister Henry Bellingham (FCO5, “Summary of Mr Bellingham's Meeting”).

52. Daily Monitor (Kampala), “Free and Fair?”; Independent (Kampala), “Opposition Demand Election Re-Run.”

53. DFID1, “Minute on Preparations for May.”

54. Wikileaks, US Kampala Embassy Cable.

55. BHC3, “Summary of Meeting.”

56. Interview with Jeroen Verheul, Dutch Ambassador to Uganda (2007–2012), 23 March 2011.

57. BHC4, “The Story So Far”; Wikileaks, US Kampala Embassy Cable.

58. Independent (Kampala), “Are Electoral Commissioners Cadres.”

59. Interview with European diplomat, 22 November 2010; interview with UK Government official, 5 November 2010; interview with a European official, 31 March 2011; Wikileaks, US Kampala Embassy Cable.

60. Deepening Democracy Programme (DDP), Kampala. Enhancing the Integrity of Elections.

61. Deepening Democracy Programme (DDP), Kampala. Enhancing the Integrity of Elections.

62. Deepening Democracy Programme (DDP), Kampala. Enhancing the Integrity of Elections; FCO1, “Briefing for APPG Briefing”; FCO2, “Briefing for Mark Lyall-Grant's Visit”; FCO4, “Briefing on Election Observation Mission.”

63. Interview with a UK official, 18 January 2011.

64. Interview with donor official, 10 February 2011.

65. Interview with two Kampala-based diplomats, 23 November 2010.

66. Interview with a Dutch official, 7 March 2011.

67. Interview with Jeroen Verheul, Dutch Ambassador to Uganda (2007–2012), 23 March 2011.

68. Interview with a Kampala-based donor official, 10 February 2011.

69. US Department of State, Report on the 2011 Ugandan Elections, pp. 1–2. (This report is not publicly available and was provided to the author by an anonymous source.)

70. Daily Monitor (Kampala), “Museveni Tells US”; interview with a senior US official, 19 May 2011.

71. Daily Monitor (Kampala), “Museveni Tells US”; interview with a senior US official, 19 May 2011.

72. Interview with a Kampala-based donor official, 10 February 2011.

73. US Department of State, “Uganda's Elections.”

74. Daily Monitor (Kampala), “Opposition Takes Anti-Museveni Protests.”

75. BHC1, “eGram No. 3954/11”; East African (Nairobi), “EU Calls for Electoral Reforms.”

76. Interview with a senior US official, 19 May 2011.

77. Nation (Lagos), “Iwu Must Go.”

78. Nation (Lagos), “Iwu Must Go.”; This Day (Lagos), “US Top Official Seeks”; Wikileaks, US Abuja Embassy Cable.

79. BBC News, “Nigerians Welcome Sacking”; Daily Trust (Abuja), “New INEC Commissioners.”

80. Wikileaks. US Abuja Embassy Cable.

81. Interview with a Kampala-based donor official, 10 February 2011.

82. Harrison and Wang, “New Approach,” pp. 1290–1.

83. Hauser, “Ugandan Relations with Western Donors,” pp. 621–34.

84. Daily Telegraph (London), “William Hague.”

85. Daily Telegraph (London), “William Hague.”

86. Daily Telegraph (London), “William Hague.”; FCO3, “Briefing Note on Visit to UNGA.”

87. Fisher, “Managing Donor Perceptions.”

88. BBC News, “‘Somali Link”’.

89. Interview with a Kampala-based European diplomat, 22 November 2010; Daily Monitor (Kampala), “I Can Win”; interview with a Kampala-based donor official, 10 February 2011; Time Magazine (New York), “Balancing Counterterrorism and Democracy.”

90. Daily Monitor (Kampala), “Why US Funds the War”; Voice of America, “US Urges Transparent Investigation.”

91. Interview with a former ‘US diplomatic observer’, 17 November 2009; New Vision (Kampala), “Norway Cuts Aid.”

92. Hauser, “Ugandan Relations with Western Donors,” pp. 628–30.

93. Interview with Jeroen Verheul, Dutch Ambassador to Uganda (2007–2012), 23 March 2011.

94. One Kampala-based donor official has mused that Uganda ‘doesn't get the A team’; interview with a Kampala-based donor official, 9 February 2010.

95. Interviews with eight current and former diplomatic officials in Kampala (19, 20, 22 and 28 May 2009, and 1 June 2009), London (25 June 2009), and Washington, DC (16 October 2010); see also Brown, “Well, What Can You Expect?,” pp. 525–6.

96. Interview with a UK official, 18 January 2011.

97. Interview with a UK official, 29 March 2011.

98. Daily Monitor (Kampala), “Museveni is Not a US Puppet”; New Vision (Kampala), “Diplomats Speak Out”; Sunday Monitor (Kampala), “Corrupt Ministers Must Resign”.

99. Interview with a Kampala-based donor official, 10 February 2011; interview with a UK official, 29 March 2011; interview with a European official, 30 March 2011.

100. Interview with a Kampala-based donor official, 10 February 2011; interview with a UK official, 29 March 2011; interview with a European official, 30 March 2011.

101. Time Magazine (New York), “An African for Africa”; Daily Monitor (Kampala), 15 March 2010; New Vision (Kampala), 6 April 2011.

102. Interview with a UK official, 18 January 2011; interview with a European official, 31 March 2011; interview with a UK official, 29 March 2011.

103. Interview with a UK official, 18 January 2011; interview with a UK official, 22 October 2010; interview with a European official, 31 March 2011.

104. Electoral Commission of Uganda, Report, pp. 25–32; I am also grateful to Simon Osborn for assistance with these figures.

105. Crawford, Foreign Aid and Political Reform, pp. 163–81.

106. Interview with a UK donor official, 29 March 2011.