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ABSTRACT
In this paper, we focus on the role of the institution of external and domestic observers in electoral turnovers. Observers have come under scrutiny in recent years, particularly following their assessments of the Kenya and Malawi elections, for which they raised no serious concerns, but the polls were subsequently annulled by courts on the basis of serious irregularities. By comparing and contrasting the role played by international and domestic observers in Zambia’s general elections in 2016 with those of 2021, it can be shown that observer groups can contribute to positive electoral outcomes and, while not under their remit, can be in a position to facilitate peaceful transitions. While acknowledging that the biggest factor of the smooth transition in Zambia was the huge turnout of voters and the wide margin of the opposition’s victory, election observers played a key role in aiding the democratic transition. This paper contributes to the literature on the role of domestic and international observers by examining key areas of their engagement in Zambia’s last two general elections. The research was carried out through participant observation, a panel survey conducted before and after the 2021 elections and interviews with stakeholders.
Acknowledgment
O’Brien and Hinfelaar would like to acknowledge the support of the ESRC-funded “Local Perceptions and Media Representations of Election Observation in Africa” project, in particular Dr Robert Macdonald and Dr Tom Molony, University of Edinburgh.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Sishuwa Sishuwa, “Zambia may burn after the August elections,” Mail & Guardian, 22 March 2021. Accessed 20 June 2023. https://mg.co.za/africa/2021-03-22-zambia-may-burn-after-the-august-electons-heres-how-to-prevent-this.
2 Various surveys, including Afrobarometer Survey Round 8, 2020. Accessed 21 June 2023. https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/migrated/files/publications/Summary%20of%20results/summary_of_results-zambia-afrobarometer_round_8-29june2021.pdf.
3 Lindberg, Democratization by Elections; Bleck and Van de Walle, Electoral Politics in Africa, 65.
4 Kelley, “Assessing the Complex Evolution of Norms.”
5 Johnstone and Snyder, “Democracy Promotion.”
6 See Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation and Code of Conduct for International Observers, 2005. Accessed 19 June 2023. https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/c/215556.pdf.
7 The UNDP-managed basket fund in the context of electoral assistance is an arrangement aimed at improving coordination among donors and relevant international partners involved in electoral assistance. To emphasise their cooperation in supporting electoral assistance projects, the donors and partners usually sign a memorandum of understanding with UNDP, which then manages a collective pot of funds aimed at supporting agreed areas of the electoral process.
8 See Helpdesk Research Report: Multi-donor Funding for Elections in Post-conflict or Fragile States (8 July 2008) Governance and Social Development Research Centre. Accessed 5 March 2019. http://www.gsdrc.org/docs/open/hd538.pdf.
9 Guidelines for African Union Electoral Observations and Monitoring Missions. http://www.achpr.org/instruments/guide-elections/. Also see Commonwealth Election Observation Guidelines at Accessed 5 June 2023. http://thecommonwealth.org/elections-observation.
10 See The Future of International Election Observation (11 October 2018). Accessed 5 June 2023. https://eeas.europa.eu/regions/africa/51967/future-international-election-observation_en.
11 For instance, for the 2016 General Elections in Zambia, the Commonwealth Secretary-General deployed an Envoy, HE Professor Ibrahim Gambari, to promote and facilitate an inclusive dialogue before, during and after the elections. See Accessed 5 June 2023. https://www.zambiahc.org.uk/news_events/commonwealths-secretary-general-appoints-ibrahim-gambari-as-special-advisor-for-zambian-elections/.
12 See Revised Commonwealth Guidelines for the Conduct of Election Observation in Member States. Accessed 5 June 2023. https://www.chogm2018.org.uk/sites/default/files/CommonwealthGuidelinesfortheConductofElectionObservationinMemberCountries%20pdf.pdf.
13 Cheeseman and Klaas, How to Rig an Election.
14 Carothers, “The Observers Observed,” Cheeseman and Klaas, How to Rig an Election.
15 Nevitte, Canton, and Santiago, “The Rise of Election Monitoring.”
16 Gromping, “Agents of Resistance and Revival,” 118.
17 O'Grady, Lopez-Pintor, and Stevens, “The Work of Domestic Election Observer,” 21.
18 Sjoberg, “Making Voters Count,” 35.
19 MacDonald and Molony, “Can Domestic Observers Serve as Impartial Arbiters,” 635.
20 Ibid.
21 CCMG, 2016 Election Report (2017), 3
22 Ibid., 4.
23 ZAP, “Tools for Accountability.” Accessed 28 March 2022. https://www.britishcouncil.org.zm/sites/default/files/stories_of_change_tools_for_transparency_pvt.pdf.
24 Lusaka Times, “3.5 Million-dollar Fraud at DFID Funded ZAP? DEC Says it knows Nothing.” 6 November 2017. Accessed 19 October 2021. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/11/06/3-5-million-dollar-fraud-dfid-dec-says-knows-nothing; Zambia Watchdog, “Zambian NGOs Steal Millions of US Dollars from UK’s DFI,” 5 November 2017. Accessed 19 October 2021. https://www.zambiawatchdog.com/zambian-ngos-steal-millions-of-us-dollars-from-uks-dfid/.
25 Cheeseman and Klaas, How to Rig an Election.
26 Ibid.
27 Ibid., 200.
28 Lusaka Times, “Emulate President Lungu in peace building, YALI urges opposition,” 14 September 2020. Accessed 28 March 2021. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2020/09/14/emulate-president-lungu-in-peace-building-yali-urges-opposition/. See also Yamiko Banda, “Ntewewe Cautions Zambians,” ZNBC, 25 May 2021. Accessed 28 March 2022. https://www.znbc.co.zm/news/ntewewe-cautions-zambians/.
29 Zambia Elections Information Centre, “Petition Update,” 5 September 2015. Accessed 19 October 2021. https://www.facebook.com/ZEIC2016/.
30 GEARS, “Interim Statement on the Just Ended 12 August 2021 General Elections,” 12 August 2021. Accessed 30 June 2023. https://web.facebook.com/160258384598749/posts/pre-election-statement-on-the-august-12-general-election-by-gears-initiative-zam/896295260995054/?_rdc=1&_rdr.
31 Lusaka Times, “President Lungu has rejected the elections results, the elections were not free and fair,” 14 August 2021. Accessed 28 March 2022. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2021/08/14/president-lungu-has-rejected-the-elections-results-the-elections-were-not-free-and-fair/.
32 See SADC statement announcing that SADC was not going to deploy a physical observer mission to Zambia: https://www.sadc.int/files/7516/2871/2335/Statement.pdf.
33 NDI, “The Quick Count and Election Observation,” 3
34 Mwanyisa, “An Introduction to Sample Based Observation,” 2.
35 NDI, “The Quick Count and Election Observation,” 19.
36 CCMG, “Verification Statement on the Accuracy of the Results of the 2016 Presidential Election,” 15 August 2016. Accessed 28 March 2022. https://www.eisa.org/pdf/zam2016ccmg.pdf.
37 CCMG, “Verification Statement on the Accuracy of the Official 2021 Presidential Results,” 16 August 2021. Accessed 28 March 2022. https://ccmgzambia.org/ccmg-verification-statement-on-the-accuracy-of-the-official-2021-presidential-results/.
38 Lusaka Times, “President Lungu has Rejected the Elections Results, the Elections were not Free and Fair,” 14 August 2021. Accessed 28 March 2022. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2021/08/14/president-lungu-has-rejected-the-elections-results-the-elections-were-not-free-and-fair/.
39 Molony and Macdonald, “Re-evaluating International Observation.”
40 R. Macdonald, “How Election Observers Facilitated Zambia’s Smooth Change of Power.” African Arguments, 7 September 2021. Accessed 5 June 2023. https://africanarguments.org/2021/09/how-election-observers-facilitated-zambias-smooth-change-of-power/.
41 Lindstrom, Orenstein, and Bloom, Transnational Actors in Central and East European Transitions.
42 The Coalition for Peaceful Elections in Zambia is an initiative co-convened by the Zambia Centre for Inter-party Dialogue and the Christian Churches Monitoring Group, supported by the Law Association of Zambia, the Human Rights Commission, the Non- Governmental Organisations Coordinating Council, the Zambia Federation of Disability Organisations, the Zambia Police Service, the Media Institute for Southern Africa, and the National Youth Development Council. The initiative was supported by the Commonwealth and the United Nations, to build a coalition of strategic organizations to advocate peace and encourage political party leaders and candidates in the 2021 elections to commit to peaceful polls by signing a peace pledge and making a joint public commitment reaffirming non-violence and a credible electoral process. See Accessed 5 June 2023. https://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/zambia%E2%80%99s-political-leaders-urged-commit-peaceful-elections.
43 The Coalition for Peaceful Elections hosted an event that saw the signing of a peace pledge by all the main political parties, including the PF and the UPND leaders before the nation on 14 July 2021, to reaffirm their commitment to peace before, during and after the 2021 elections. For details, refer to Lusaka Times, “Political Parties Sign a Peace and Non-Violence Accord,” 14 July 2021. Accessed 5 June 2023. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2021/07/14/political-parties-sign-a-peace-and-non-violence-accord/.
44 The leader of the UPND had addressed a letter to the leadership of the UNDP expressing concerns over the RC’s bias in favor of the governing party. See Accessed 5 June 2023. https://www.polity.org.za/article/zambian-opposition-leader-accuses-un-representative-of-bias-2018-05-30.
45 Macdonald and Moloney, “Can Domestic Observers Serve as Impartial Arbiters.”
46 Professor Gambari is an eminent Nigerian personality, former Foreign Minister and United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and recently President Buhari’s Chief of Staff. For details on the engagement, see Sawyer, “Elections and Conflict Prevention in Africa.”
47 See details of his appointment at https://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/secretary-general-appoints-ibrahim-gambari-nigeria-special-adviser-zambian-elections.
48 The Pre-election statement issued by Prof Gambari, for instance. https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/Prof-Gambari-Press%20Conference%20Address-10-08-2016.pdf.
49 R. Macdonald, “How election observers facilitated Zambia’s smooth change of power,” African Arguments, 7 September 2021. Accessed 5 June 2023. https://africanarguments.org/2021/09/how-election-observers-facilitated-zambias-smooth-change-of-power/.
50 Given especially Zambia’s strong diplomatic ties with Nigeria compared to those with Sierra Leone.
51 See Declaration of Principles of International Election Observation and Code of Conduct for International Election Observers. https://www.ndi.org/sites/default/files/1923_declaration_102705_0.pdf.
52 Lusaka Times, “Ballot papers manipulation fears baseless-EFZ,” 21 April 2016. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2016/04/21/ballot-papers-manipulation-fears-baseless-efz/.
53 “Coalition for Peaceful Elections in Zambia urges Peace, Convenes National Day of Prayer.” Accessed 19 June 2023. https://diggers.news/local/2021/07/28/coalition-for-peaceful-elections-in-zambia-urges-peace-convenes-national-day-of-prayer/.
54 Macdonald and Molony, “Can Domestic Observers Serve as Impartial Arbiters.”