The humpty dumpty effect: Emerging media diffusion and (Granger) causal democratic change in 122 countries from 1946 to 2014

ABSTRACT

This study extended prior findings examining traditional with cross-national time-series data analyses in sequences of Granger causality tests to examine the democratizing effects of internet and mobile phone diffusion through 2014. In this context, Media System Dependency (MSD) theory has suggested that in countries with high media diffusion or high sociopolitical instability, such emerging media diffusion should Granger cause democracy. However, no such relationships were observed when studying emerging media technology in the form of mobile phones or online access. Mobile diffusion was, however, observed to Granger cause sociopolitical instability in countries with high and low sociopolitical instability alike, as well as in countries with low media diffusion. These findings suggest that the diffusion of emerging media to date has not necessarily demonstrated the same democratizing capacity that MSD theory has previously ascribed to traditional media diffusion, and that any effects are indirect.

KEYWORDS:

• Democracy
• internet diffusion
• media system dependency theory
• Granger causality
• mobile communication

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Blake Wertz

Blake Wertz (M.A., Boston University) is a doctoral student in the Division of Emerging Media Studies at Boston University whose research focuses on the intersection of media psychology and political communication in the study of political talk online.

Jacob Groshek

Jacob Groshek (Ph.D., Indiana University) is the endowed Ross Beach Chair of Emerging Media Research at Kansas State University and Honorary Associate Professor at Roskilde University.  Topically, his areas of expertise concern online and mobile media technologies as their use may relate to sociopolitical and behavioral health change at the macro and micro levels. His work also include analyses of media content and user influence in social media.

Alex Rochefort

Alex Rochefort (M.S., Northeastern University) is a doctoral student in the Division of Emerging Media Studies at Boston University. His research agenda focuses on platform governance, communication policy, content moderation, and the political uses of misinformation.