Fighting terrorism in Africa when existing terrorism levels matter

ABSTRACT

This study examines policy tools in the fight against terrorism when existing levels of terrorism matter in 53 African countries for the period 1998–2012. The empirical evidence is based on contemporary, non-contemporary and Instrumental Variable Quantile regressions (QR) which enable the investigation throughout the conditional distributions of domestic, transnational and total terrorism dynamics. The following findings are established. First, counterterrorism policy instruments of inclusive human development and military expenditure further fuel terrorim. Second, political stability negatively affects terrorism with a negative threshold effect. Political stability estimates are consistently significant with increasing negative magnitudes throughout the conditional distributions of domestic and total terrorism. Policy implications are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Terrorism
• inclusive development
• political stability
• military expenditure
• Africa

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• C52
• D74
• F42
• O16
• O38

Acknowledgements

The authors are indebted to the editor and reviewers for constructive comments. The research on which this work is based was made possible in 2015 by the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Comparative Research Network Grant funded by SAREC and NORAD. We thank Chris A. Shisanya, Phil R. Oyono and other participants of the Comparative Research Network Workshop of May 2015 in Dakar, for constructive comments. We are also highly indebted to Mamay Jah, Ato K. Onoma and Kouassivi A. Sofonnou for constructive comments, logistics and networking coordination.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Prof. Dr. Simplice A. Asongu is the Lead Economist and Director of the African Governance and Development Institute, Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Dr. Vanessa S. Tchamyou is a Senior Economist at the African Governance and Development Institute, Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Ndemaze Asongu is a PhD Candidate at the University of South Africa and a Research Assistant at the African Governance and Development Institute, Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Nina P. Tchamyou is a Research Assistant at the African Governance and Development Institute, Yaoundé, Cameroon.