Climate change in the Horn of Africa: causations for violent extremism

ABSTRACT

Scientific evidence suggests our planet is experiencing climatic changes: increases in regional temperatures, variations in seasonal precipitation, stronger storms, sea level rise, and decreases in water availability. Consequently, these climatic changes have resulted in elevated rates of human migration, food insecurities, increased socioeconomic inequalities, civil conflict, and acts of terrorism. The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of climate change and its relationship to reported acts of terrorism in Somalia. Using a negative binomial regression model, various variables related to climate change were evaluated from 1991 to 2019. This study identified that annual increases in charcoal production, greenhouse gas emissions, and oil consumption were associated with reported terrorism attacks. Additionally, annual decreases in mean precipitation were also shown to be related to acts of terrorism. Controlling for the gross domestic product growth rate, the population growth rate, and state weakness, this study also determined that annual decreases in state weakness as well as the gross domestic product growth rate were also associated with reported terrorism incidents. Policy implications will be discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Al Shabaab
• climate change
• global warming
• Horn of Africa
• Somalia
• terrorism

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Walch (2018) reported that natural disasters had the inverse effect on terrorism. Assessing the aftermath of the 2013 Typhoon in the Philippines, Walch (2018) discovered that acts of terrorism declined. Natural disaster negatively affects the supply routes, required by terror networks to move troops and resources. Additionally, humanitarian relief organizations could displace terror organizations, offering less space for terror groups to base their operations (Walch, 2018).

2 Young males, in particular, are more likely to migrate and become participants with terror groups (Freeman, 2017).

3 Methane gases are linked to climate change (Rojas-Downing et al., 2017).

4 This was the operational definition that was utilized for this study.

5 Youth was defined as individuals 15–24 years of age.

6 Al Shabaab translated means ‘the youth.’

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Joshua M. Regan

Joshua Regan is a faculty member affiliated with the geography curriculum at Western Connecticut State University and the University of Connecticut. Additionally, Dr. Regan conducts research and teaches national security, homeland security, and criminal justice studies at the University of New Haven. His research primarily focuses on failed states, terrorism, contemporary maritime piracy, and patterns of criminal behavior in declining urban neighborhoods. His research has been presented throughout North America and Europe.

Sean K. Young

Sean Young is an undergraduate student majoring in social science education at Western Connecticut State University. Along with this, Sean is also a student-athlete being a goalie on the men’s lacrosse team. Additionally, Sean has been a Resident Assistant and a member of the education club at Western since his freshman year.