Assessment of China's Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Target for 2030: Possibility of Earlier Peaking

Abstract

Whether China's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction target “to peak around 2030” is “fair, ambitious and adequate” or not depends on how much emphasis be placed on the historical responsibilities. However, China's peak in coal consumption may come earlier than expected, thereby advancing the peak of CO₂ emission to come before 2030. In fact, the calculation based on the recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China released indicates that its coal consumption and CO₂ emission (from fossil fuels) have almost flatted in 2014. Moreover, National Bureau of Statistics of China has upwardly adjusted the data for energy consumption and coal consumption in 2013, which led to confusion in its interpretation. Although it is difficult to say anything definite at this moment, the issue of upward adjustment of statistical data until 2013 and the recent declining trend of coal consumption and, possibly CO₂ emission (from fossil fuels) can be discussed separately. All things considered, it seems more appropriate to assume that, in China, the coal consumption and CO₂ emission are not likely to show significant increases in the future.

Keyword:

• Climate change
• China
• greenhouse gas
• INDC
• CO₂ emission
• coal consumption
• air pollution
• data adjustment

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Jusen Asuka

Jusen ASUKA is Professor of Center for Northeast Asian Studies, Tohoku University, Japan. He had also worked for the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan as the director of the Climate change group from April 2010 to March 2013. He holds a Ph.D. from the Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo, a MBA from the INSEAD, and a M.S. from the Graduate School of Agriculture, University of Tokyo. His primary areas of interest are about energy policy and environmental policy (e.g. climate policy, air pollution policy) and international environmental/energy cooperation. His research area also covers China's climate/energy policy. He recently published a book titled “Climate Justice: Politics, Economics and Philosophy of the Climate Policy and Negotiation” (Nihon Hyoron-sha, 2015).