Arctic Ecosystems and their Services Under Changing Climate: Predictive‐Modeling Assessment

Abstract

There is increasing evidence that permafrost and vegetation have already responded to pronounced warming of the Arctic in the past few decades. In this study we used mathematical models to assess changes of permafrost and Arctic vegetation in the first half of the twenty‐first century. We tested the regional performance of the 5 Earth system models and eliminated outliers that have large errors in replicating temperature and precipitation trends in the Arctic over the historical time period. The remaining “best” models were combined into an optimal ensemble and used as climatic forcing in permafrost and vegetation modeling. Probabilistic metrics, such as the number of climate trajectories leading to different levels of impacts on permafrost and vegetation, have been used to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the climate projections. Results under all trajectories predict deeper seasonal thawing of the uppermost soil layer above permafrost, a northward shift of biome ranges, expansion of the boreal forest, and reduction of the tundra area. Such changes will have implications for land use, market and nonmarket economies, infrastructure in the urban and industrially developed regions of the Russian Arctic, indigenous peoples following traditional lifestyles, and wildlife.

Key words:

• climate change
• ecosystems
• modelling
• permafrost
• projection
• uncertainty

Predictive modelling of permafrost and vegetation was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, project 14‐17‐00037. We would also like to thank the USA National Science Foundation for funding our Partnership for International Research and Education: Promoting Urban Sustainability in the Arctic (award number 1545913), which helped make this research possible. The authors appreciate the assistance of Professor F.E. Nelson in editing the English text.

Predictive modelling of permafrost and vegetation was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, project 14‐17‐00037. We would also like to thank the USA National Science Foundation for funding our Partnership for International Research and Education: Promoting Urban Sustainability in the Arctic (award number 1545913), which helped make this research possible. The authors appreciate the assistance of Professor F.E. Nelson in editing the English text.

Notes

Predictive modelling of permafrost and vegetation was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, project 14‐17‐00037. We would also like to thank the USA National Science Foundation for funding our Partnership for International Research and Education: Promoting Urban Sustainability in the Arctic (award number 1545913), which helped make this research possible. The authors appreciate the assistance of Professor F.E. Nelson in editing the English text.

Additional information

Funding

Russian Science Foundation

National Science Foundation

Notes on contributors

Oleg Anisimov

Dr. Oleg Anisimov [[email protected]]

Vasily Kokorev

Dr. Vasily Kokorev [[email protected]]

Yelena Zhiltcova

Dr. Yelena Zhiltcova [[email protected]], State hydrological institute, St. Petersburg, Russia.