Arctic Ecosystems and their Services Under Changing Climate: Predictive‐Modeling Assessment

References

• Anisimov, O. A., E. L. Zhiltcova, and S. A. Reneva. 2011. Evaluation of Thresholds Governing the Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems in Russia. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 36 (11): 723–730.
   Google Scholar
• Bachelet, D., R. P. Neilson, T. Hickler, R. J. Drapek, J. M. Lenihan, M. T. Sykes, B. Smith, S. Sitch, and K. Thonicke. 2003. Simulating Past and Future Dynamics of Natural Ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17 (14): 1–21.
   Google Scholar
• Bhatt, U. S., D. A. Walker, M. K. Raynolds, P. A. Bieniek, H. E. Epstein, J. C. Comiso, J. E. Pinzon, C. J. Tucker, and I. V. Polyakov. 2013. Recent Declines in Warming and Arctic Vegetation Greening Trends Over Pan‐Arctic Tundra. Remote Sensing (Special NDVI issue) 5: 4229–4254.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bjerke, J. W., S. R. Karlsen, E. Hogda, E. Malnes, J. U. Jepsen, S. Lovibond, D. Vikhamar‐schuler, and H. Tommervik. 2014. Record‐Low Primary Productivity and High Plant Damage in the Nordic Arctic Region in 2012 Caused by Multiple Weather Events and pest Outbreaks. Environmental Research Letters (9): 084006.
   Google Scholar
• CAVM [Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map; 1:7,500,000 scale]. 2003. Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) Map No. 1. Anchorage, Alas.: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,.
   Google Scholar
• Collins, W., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.‐L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W. J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A. J. Weaver, and M. Wehner. 2013. Long‐Term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.‐K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley, P. Smith, and D. Jones, 1029–1136. Cambridge, U.K: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Degteva, A., and C. Nellemann. 2013. Nenets Migration in the Landscape: Impacts of Industrial Development in Yamal Peninsula, Russia. Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice, 15 (3). DOI: 10.1186/2041‐7136‐3‐15
   Google Scholar
• Flato, G., J. Marotzke, B. Abiodun, P. Braconnot, S. C. Chou, W. Collins, P. Cox, F. Driouech, S. Emori, V. Eyring, C. ForestP. Gleckler, E. Guilyardi, C. Jakob, V. Kattsov, C. Reason, and M. Rummukainen. 2013. Evaluation of Climate Models. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.‐K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley, P. Smith, and D. Jones, 741–866. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Forbes, B. C. 2013. Cultural Resilience of Social‐Ecological Systems in the Nenets and Yamal‐Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, Russia: A Focus on Reindeer Nomads of the Tundra. Ecology and Society 18 (4): article 36, http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05791-180436.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Forbes, B. C., and T. Kumpula. 2009. The Ecological Role and Geography of Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Northern Eurasia. Geography Compass 3 (4): 1356–1380.
   Google Scholar
• Forkel, M., N. Carvalhais, C. Rödenbeck, R. Keeling, M. Heimann, K. Thonicke, S. Zaehle, and M. Reichstein. 2016. Enhanced Seasonal CO2 Exchange Caused by Amplified Plant Productivity in Northern Ecosystems. Science 351 (6274): 696–699. doi:10.1126/science.aac4971.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fraser, R. H., T. C. Lantz, I. Olthof, S. V. Kokelj, and R. A. Sims. 2014. Warming‐Induced Shrubs Expansion and Lichen Decline in the Western Canadian Arctic. Ecosystems (17): 1151–1168.
   Google Scholar
• Frost, G. V., and H. E. Epstein. 2014. Tall Shrub and Tree Expansion in Siberian Tundra Ecotones since the 1960s. Global Change Biology (20): 1264–1277.
   Google Scholar
• Goberville, E., G. Beaugrand, N. C. Hautekèete, Y. Piquot, and C. Luczak. 2015. Uncertainties in the Projection of Species Distributions Related to General Circulation Models. Ecology and Evolution 5 (5): 1100–1116.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gruber, S. 2012. Derivation and Analysis of a High‐Resolution Estimate of Global Permafrost Zonation. The Cryosphere 6: 221–233.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harris, I., P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and D. H. Lister. 2014. Updated High‐Resolution Grids of Monthly Climatic Observations—The CRU TS3.10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology 34 (3): 623–642.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heleniak, T., and D. Bogoyavlensky. 2014. Arctic Populations and Migration. In Arctic Human Development Report: Regional Processes and Global Linkages (AHDR‐II), edited by J. Larsen, and G. Fondahl, 53–104. Copenhagen, Denmark: Rosendahls‐Schultz Grafisk.
   Google Scholar
• Hobbie, S. E., and L. Gough. 2004. Litter Decomposition in Moist Acidic and Non‐Acidic Tundra with Different Glacial Histories. Oecologia 140 (1): 113–124.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hollister, R. D., J. L. May, K. S. Kremers, C. E. Tweedie, S. F. Oberbauer, J. A. Liebig, T. F. Botting, R. T. Barrett, and J. L. Gregory. 2015. Warming Experiments Elucidate the Drivers of Observed Directional Changes in Tundra Vegetation. Ecology and Evolution (5): 1881–1895.
   Google Scholar
• Hovelsrud, G. K., and B. Smit. 2010. Community Adaptation and Vulnerability in Arctic Regions. New York: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Huskey, L., I. Maenpaa, and A. Pelyasov. 2014. Economic Systems. In Arctic Human Development Report: Regional Processes and Global Linkages (AHDR‐II), edited by J. Larsen, and G. Fondahl, 151–182.Copenhagen, Denmark: Rosendahls‐Schultz Grafisk.
   Google Scholar
• Knutti, R. 2010. The End of Model Democracy? Climatic Change 102: 395–404.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kudryavtcev, V. A., L. S. Garagulya, K. A. Kondrat'yeva, and V. G. Melamed. 1974. Fundamentals of Frost Forecasting in Geological Engineering Investigations. Arctic and Alpine Research 23 (4): 436–443.
   Google Scholar
• Larsen, J., and G. Fondahl, eds. 2014. Arctic Human Development Report: Regional Processes and Global Linkages (AHDR‐II), II. Copenhagen, Denmark: Rosendahls‐Schultz Grafisk.
   Google Scholar
• Myers‐smith, I. H., S. C. Elmendorf, P. S. A. Beck, M. Wilmking, M. Hallinger, D. Blok, K. D. Tape, S. A. Rayback, M. Macias‐fauria, B. C. Forbes, J. D. M. Speed, N. Boulanger‐lapointe, C. Rixen, E. Lévesque, N. Martin schmidt, C. Baittinger, A. J. Trant, L. Hermanutz, L. Sieqwart collier, M. A. Dawes, T. C. Lantz, S. Weijers, R. Halfdan jørgensen, A. Buchwal, A. Buras, A. T. Naito, V. Ravolainen, G. Schaepman‐strub, J. A. Wheeler, S. Wipf, K. C. Guay, D. S. Hik, and M. Vellend. 2015. Climate Sensitivity of Shrub Growth Across the Tundra Biome. Nature Climate Change 5: 887–891. doi:10.1038/nclimate2697.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peterson, A. T. 2006. Uses and Requirements of Ecological Niche Models and Related Distributional Models. Biodiv. Inform 3: 59–72.
   Google Scholar
• Prentice, I. C., A. Bondeau, W. Cramer, S. P. Harrison, T. Hickler, W. Lucht, S. Sitch, B. Smith, and M. Sykes. 2007. Dynamic Global Vegetation Modeling: Quantifying Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Large‐Scale environmental change. In Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, edited by J. G. Canadell, D. E. Pataki, and L. F. Pitelka, 175–192. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Raisanen, J., and J. S. Ylhaisi. 2011. How Much Should Climate Model Output Be Smoothed in Space? Journal of Climate 24 (3): 867–880.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sazonova, T. S., and V. E. Romanovsky. 2003. A Model for Regional‐Scale Estimation of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Active‐Layer Thickness and Mean Annual Ground Temperatures. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 14 (2): 125–140.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sazonova, T. S., V. E. Romanovsky, J. E. Walsh, and D. O. Sergueev. 2004. Permafrost Dynamics in the 20th and 21st Centuries along the East Siberian Transect. Journal of Geophysical Research‐Atmospheres 109(D01108): DOIi:10.1029/2003JD003680.
   Google Scholar
• Shiklomanov, N. I., O. A. Anisimov, T. Zhang, S. Marchenko, F. E. Nelson, and C. Oelke. 2007. Analysis of Model‐Produced Permafrost Active Layer Fields: Results for Northern Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research, Earth Surface 12 (2), DOI: 10.1029/2006JF000571.
   Google Scholar
• Sitch, S., C. Huntingford, N. Gedney, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, S. L. Piao, R. Betts, P. Cians, P. Cox, P. Friedlingstein, C. D. Jones, I. C. Prentice, and F. I. Woodward. 2008. Evaluation of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle, Future Plant Geography and Climate‐Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Using Five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 2015–2039. doi:10.1111/j.1365‐2486.2008.01626.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sitch, S., B. Smith, I. C. Prentice, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, W. Cramer, J. O. Kaplan, S. Levis, W. Lucht, M. T. Sykes, K. Thonicke, and S. Venevsky. 2003. Evaluation of Ecosystem Dynamics, Plant Geography and Terrestrial Carbon Cycling in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Change Biology 9: 161–185.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.‐K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley. 2013. Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 33–115. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Stolbovoi, V., and I. Mccallum. 2002. Land Resources of Russia. (CD‐ROM). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the Russian Academy of Science.
   Google Scholar
• Streletskiy, D. A., O. A. Anisimov, and A. A. Vasiliev. 2014. Permafrost Degradation. In Snow and ice‐related hazards, risks, and disasters, edited by W. Haeberli and C. Whiteman, 303–344. New York: Elsevier.
   Google Scholar
• Streletskiy, D. A., N. I. Shiklomanov, and F. E. Nelson. 2012. Permafrost, Infrastructure and Climate Change: A GIS‐Based Landscape Approach to Geotechnical Modeling. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research 44 (3): 368–380.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tchebakova, N. M., G. E. Rehfeldt, and E. I. Parfenova. 2010. From Vegetation Zones to Climatypes: Effects of Climate Warming on Siberian Ecosystems. In Permafrost Ecosystems: Siberian Larch Forests, EcologicalSstudies, edited by A. Osawa, O.A. Zyryanova, Y. Matsuura, T. Kajimoto, and R.W. Wein, 427–447. Springer Science+Business Media, Berlin, Germany. DOI 10.1007/978‐1‐4020‐9693‐8_22
   Google Scholar
• Vaughan, D. G., J. C. Comiso, I. Allison, J. Carrasco, G. Kaser, R. Kwok, P. Mote, T. Murray, F. Paul, J. Ren, E. Rignot, O. Solomina, K. Steffen, and T. Zhang. 2013. Observations: Cryosphere. In Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.‐K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley, P. Smith, and D. Jones, 317–382. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Washburn, A. L. 1979. Geocryology: A Survey of Periglacial Processes and Environments. London: Edward Arnold.
   Google Scholar
• Xu, L., R. B. Myneni, F. S. Chapin, T. V. Callaghan, J. E. Pinzon, C. J. Tucker, Z. Zhu, J. Bi, P. Ciais, H. Tommervik, E. S. Euskirchen, B. C. Forbes, S. L. Piao, B. T. Anderson, S. Ganguly, R. R. Nemani, S. J. Goetz, P. S. A. Beck, A. G. Bunn, C. Cao, and J. C. Stroeve. 2013. Temperature and Vegetation Seasonality Diminishment Over Northern Lands. Nature Climate Change, vol. 3, 581–586. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1836.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yurtsev, B. A. 1994. The Floristic Division of the Arctic. Journal of Vegetation Science 5 (6): 765–776.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zamin, T. J., M. S. Bret‐harte, and P. Grogan. 2014. Evergreen Shrubs Dominate Responses to Experimental Summer Warming and Fertilization in Canadian Mesic Low Arctic Tundra. Journal of Ecology (102): 749–766. doi:10.1093/aobpla/plw021.
   Google Scholar