Models of Computer-Based Outbreak Detection

Summary

Despite intensive development of computer-based surveillance (CBS), there has been little work on models of such systems. This paper describes a computational model of CBS-output, inputs, and algorithms required to create the output from the inputs. Starting from an assumed requirement that an ideal CBS system be capable of mitigating a bioterroristic outbreak of inhalational Anthrax, the author shows that an output of CBS should be a continuously updated probabilistic threat assessment, which is used to trigger response actions at levels of threat determined by cost-benefit analyses. The paper considers the types of algorithmic transformations required to map from a full spectrum of types of input data to the required output. The set of input data is much broader than previously considered. The specific complementary relationship between the computational model and the evolving architectural model of the National Electronic Disease Surveillance System is discussed.

Key Words:

• Public health
• models
• decision theory
• detection
• population surveillance