American Voters' Statements of Positive and Negative Preference for Candidates and Parties 1980–2000

Abstract

Pre-election and post-election interview data from the NES archive enables analysis of the relationship between statements of positive and negative preference for candidates and parties, and actual voting behaviour in the American presidential elections, 1980 to 2000. Having previously established that what American voters say they want (or say they like) is “almost always” different in content/meaning to what they say they don't want (or dislike), hence that the causes of any specific voting behaviour are complex, a fuzzy set approach to analysis was adopted.

Analysing in excess of 10,000 individual cases, 5 out of 14 categories of preference are identified as “almost always” or “usually” necessary causes of voting in a particular way. Dealing with these necessary causes of voting is not an option; it is mandatory for the political marketer in America.

Six out of 14 categories of preference are identified as “almost always” or “usually” sufficient causes of voting in a particular way. Having first ensured that there is nothing stopping the target electorate voting in the desired way, the political marketer's task is to establish the optimum combinations of sufficient causes and to manage a campaign that focuses on those combinations.

Key Words:

• Voting behaviour
• positive preference
• negative preference
• fuzzy set
• necessary cause
• sufficient cause