Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Low Albumin-Bilirubin Grade in TACE Combined with Ablation: A Random Forest Cox Predictive Model

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and recurrence in patients who underwent TACE sequential ablation. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict low levels of ALBI patients’ recurrence.

Patients and Methods

A total of 880 patients undergoing TACE combined ablation at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 2014 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled, including 415 patients with L-ALBI (≤-2.6) and 465 patients with high levels (>-2.6) of ALBI (H-ALBI). L-ALBI patients were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into the training cohort (N=289) and validation cohort (N=126). Multivariate Cox regression followed by random survival forest was carried out to identify independent risk factors for prediction nomogram construction. An examination of nomogram accuracy was performed using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. According to the nomogram, the patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were applied to compare the difference in recurrence-free survival (RFS) among the three groups.

Results

The median RFS in L-ALBI patients was significantly longer than the H-ALBI patients (40.8m vs 20.1m, HR:1.71, 95% CI:1.44–2.04, P<0.0001). The nomogram was composed of five variables, such as age, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, globulin, gamma-glutamyl transferase to lymphocyte ratio (GLR), and international normalized ratio (INR). The C-index (0.722 and 0.731) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.725, 0.803, 0.870, and 0.764, 0.816, 0.798) of the training and validation cohorts proved the good predictive performance of the nomogram. Calibration curves and DCA curves demonstrated good consistency and good clinical utility. There were significant differences in RFS between the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups (P<0.0001).

Conclusion

L-ALBI Patients who underwent TACE combined ablation had better recurrence-free survival than patients with H-ALBI. The nomogram developed and validated in our study had good predictive ability in recurrence for L-ALBI patients.

Keywords:

• hepatocellular carcinoma
• HCC
• ablation
• nomogram
• recurrence
• albumin-bilirubin
• ALBI

Data Sharing Statement

Data to support the study findings are available on request from the corresponding author.

Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate

The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Beijing You ‘an Hospital and complied with the requirements of the Declaration of Helsinki. As a retrospective study, the requirement for patient written informed consent was waived.

Acknowledgments

The authors highly appreciate all patients who participated in the study.

Author Contributions

All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis, and interpretation, or all these areas; took part in drafting, revising, or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Disclosure

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Additional information

Funding

This study was funded by a grant Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation (7191004), Capital health development project (2020-1-2182 and 2020-2-1153). Beijing research center for respiratory infectious diseases project (BJRID2024-007) and Construction of research-oriented wards in Beijing municipality, Laboratory for Clinical Medicine,Capital Medical University)(SYLH2023-06), The grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, 82202025).