The Effect of Alcohol Beverage Restrictions on Consumption: A 25-Year Longitudinal Analysis

Abstract

This project analyzed the impact of state regulation and control measures on per capita apparent distilled spirits consumption using a 25-year period, 1955-1980. The project was an effort to determine if statistically significant associations between regulation of spirits and per capita consumption could be found for the 48 states of the continental United States. A series of regression models was employed to obtain estimates of the effects of a set of independent variables, including (1) alcoholic beverage control laws, (2) price and price-related variables, and (3) social/cultural control variables on apparent distilled spirits consumption. Most previous studies of the relationship of restrictions on spirits availability have led to a belief that control efforts have little or no impact on per capita consumption. This study was undertaken with the expectation of similar findings. What was found instead was that certain laws and regulations do seem to play a significant role in holding down distilled spirits consumption. The regression models developed predict a decrease of about two drinks per month per person if the state was to shift its regulatory laws (including the price of liquor, which is not always subject to regulation) from being relatively loose to being relatively strict. This decrease in drinking would cut down the level of consumption in the median state by nearly one-fourth.