Cash flow forecasting with risk consideration using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS)

Abstract

Cash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects usually depends on valuating all risks. However, conventional methods suggested by extant research on cash flow forecasting do not consider comprehensive identification of risk factors, interactions between the factors, and simultaneous occurrences of the factors. This study introduced a simple and appropriate probabilistic cash flow forecasting model using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to avoid bankruptcy of contractors by considering influence diagrams and risk factors that affect a project. Workability and reliability of the proposed approach was tested on an important building construction project in Iran as a real case study, and the results indicated that the model performed well.

Keywords:

• probabilistic cash flow
• construction risk factors
• Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs)
• forecasting

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mostafa Khanzadi

Mostafa KHANZADI. Is an Associate Professor of Civil Engineering at Iran University of Science & Technology, Iran. His main research interests include construction project management, risk management, sustainable development and concrete technology. He has published over 100 technical articles.

Ehsan Eshtehardian

Ehsan ESHTEHARDIAN. Is an Assistant Professor at Tarbiat Modares University, Iran. He is a professional engineer in project control and planning with more than 10 years of experience in the construction sector. His main research interests include project management, risk management, ICT in construction (artificial intelligence techniques, decision support system) and building information modelling.

Mahdiyar Mokhlespour Esfahani

Mahdiyar MOKHLESPOUR ESFAHANI. He received his Master of Engineering degree from Iran University of Science & Technology. He is a Project Planner & Controller and Civil Engineer at the City of Tehran, Iran. His research interests include risk management, project cost estimation, sustainable development and artificial intelligence techniques.