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Original Articles

Learning to predict human error: issues of acceptability, reliability and validity

Pages 1737-1756 | Published online: 10 Nov 2010

Keep up to date with the latest research on this topic with citation updates for this article.

Read on this site (20)

Peter McCormack, Gemma J. M. Read, Adam Hulme, Ben R. Lane, Scott McLean & Paul M. Salmon. (2023) Using systems thinking-based risk assessment methods to assess hazardous manual tasks: a comparison of Net-HARMS, EAST-BL, FRAM and STPA. Ergonomics 66:5, pages 609-626.
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Prabhjot Singh Virdi & Gulab Pamnani. (2023) Human error identification and risk prioritization in LPG unloading operations. International Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics 29:1, pages 392-406.
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Victoria Banks, Craig K. Allison, Katie Parnell, Katherine Plant & Neville A. Stanton. (2022) Predicting and mitigating failures on the flight deck: an aircraft engine bird strike scenario. Ergonomics 65:12, pages 1672-1695.
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Adam Hulme, Neville A. Stanton, Guy H. Walker, Patrick Waterson & Paul M. Salmon. (2022) Testing the reliability and validity of risk assessment methods in Human Factors and Ergonomics. Ergonomics 65:3, pages 407-428.
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Brian Thoroman, Paul Salmon & Natassia Goode. (2020) Evaluation of construct and criterion-referenced validity of a systems-thinking based near miss reporting form. Ergonomics 63:2, pages 210-224.
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Don Harris & Wen-Chin Li. (2019) Using Neural Networks to predict HFACS unsafe acts from the pre-conditions of unsafe acts. Ergonomics 62:2, pages 181-191.
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Clare Dallat, Paul M. Salmon & Natassia Goode. (2018) Identifying risks and emergent risks across sociotechnical systems: the NETworked hazard analysis and risk management system (NET-HARMS). Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 19:4, pages 456-482.
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Neville A. Stanton. (2016) On the reliability and validity of, and training in, ergonomics methods: a challenge revisited. Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 17:4, pages 345-353.
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Linda J. Sorensen & Neville A. Stanton. (2016) Inter-rater reliability and content validity of network analysis as a method for measuring distributed situation awareness. Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 17:1, pages 42-63.
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J.C.F. de Winter, D. Dodou & P.A. Hancock. (2015) On the paradoxical decrease of self-reported cognitive failures with age. Ergonomics 58:9, pages 1471-1486.
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Gemma J.M. Read, Paul M. Salmon, Michael G. Lenné & Neville A. Stanton. (2015) Designing sociotechnical systems with cognitive work analysis: putting theory back into practice. Ergonomics 58:5, pages 822-851.
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Charmayne M.L. Hughes, Chris Baber, Marta Bienkiewicz, Andrew Worthington, Alexa Hazell & Joachim Hermsdörfer. (2015) The application of SHERPA (Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach) in the development of compensatory cognitive rehabilitation strategies for stroke patients with left and right brain damage. Ergonomics 58:1, pages 75-95.
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RajM. Ratwani & J. Gregory Trafton. (2011) A Real-Time Eye Tracking System for Predicting and Preventing Postcompletion Errors. Human–Computer Interaction 26:3, pages 205-245.
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MichaelG. Lenné, Karen Ashby & Michael Fitzharris. (2008) Analysis of General Aviation Crashes in Australia Using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System. The International Journal of Aviation Psychology 18:4, pages 340-352.
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ClaireA. Williams, RogerA. Haslam & DavidJ. Weiss. (2008) The Cochran–Weiss–Shanteau performance index as an indicator of upper limb risk assessment expertise. Ergonomics 51:8, pages 1219-1237.
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Chris Baber & NevilleA. Stanton. (2002) Task analysis for error identification: Theory, method and validation. Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 3:2, pages 212-227.
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Peter E. D. Love, Jane Matthews & Lavagnon A. Ika. Fast-and-frugal heuristics: an exploration into building an adaptive toolbox to assess the uncertainty of rework. Production Planning & Control 0:0, pages 1-16.
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Articles from other publishers (73)

Nitsan Davidor, Yair Binyamin, Tamar Hayuni Kosovsky & Ilana Nisky. (2023) Design and Assessment of a Bimanual Haptic Epidural Needle Insertion Simulator. IEEE Transactions on Haptics 16:4, pages 736-747.
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Peng Yu, Zhou Fan, Hongping Xie, Liang Liu, Hongwu Li & Haiyue Yu. (2023) A Bayesian-network-based Method to Evaluate Worker Reliability in High-altitude Electrical Engineering Work. A Bayesian-network-based Method to Evaluate Worker Reliability in High-altitude Electrical Engineering Work.
Clare Dallat, Paul M. Salmon & Natassia Goode. (2023) Testing the validity of the Networked Hazard Analysis and Risk Management System (Net‐HARMS). Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries 33:4, pages 299-311.
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Brendan Fontes, Erin Chiou & Gernot Konrad. (2023) A method to select failure conditions for further human factors scrutiny based on the prediction of human errors using a Bayesian network and elicited error probabilities. A method to select failure conditions for further human factors scrutiny based on the prediction of human errors using a Bayesian network and elicited error probabilities.
Katie J. Parnell, Neville A. Stanton, Victoria A. Banks & Katherine L. Plant. (2023) Resilience engineering on the road: Using operator event sequence diagrams and system failure analysis to enhance cyclist and vehicle interactions. Applied Ergonomics 106, pages 103870.
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Sergey Dobrotvorskiy, Michal Balog, Andrew Ruzmetov, Yevheniia Basova, Serhii Hrdzelidze & Ludmila Dobrovolska. 2023. EAI International Conference on Automation and Control in Theory and Practice. EAI International Conference on Automation and Control in Theory and Practice 207 219 .
Niklas Grabbe, Almin Arifagic & Klaus Bengler. (2022) Assessing the reliability and validity of an FRAM model: the case of driving in an overtaking scenario. Cognition, Technology & Work 24:3, pages 483-508.
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Neville A. Stanton, James W. Brown, Kirsten M. A. Revell, Jisun Kim, Joy Richardson, Pat Langdon, Mike Bradley, Nermin Caber, Lee Skrypchuk & Simon Thompson. (2021) OESDs in an on-road study of semi-automated vehicle to human driver handovers. Cognition, Technology & Work 24:2, pages 317-332.
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Neville A. Stanton, James Brown, Kirsten M. A. Revell, Pat Langdon, Mike Bradley, Ioannis Politis, Lee Skrypchuk, Simon Thompson & Alexandros Mouzakitis. (2021) Validating Operator Event Sequence Diagrams: The case of an automated vehicle to human driver handovers. Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries 32:1, pages 89-101.
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Paul M. Salmon, Gemma J. M. Read, Guy H. Walker, Nicholas J. Stevens, Adam Hulme, Scott McLean & Neville A. Stanton. (2020) Methodological issues in systems Human Factors and Ergonomics: Perspectives on the research–practice gap, reliability and validity, and prediction. Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries 32:1, pages 6-19.
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Ripon C. Das, Imrul K. Shafie, Omar F. Hamim, Md. Shamsul Hoque, Rich C. McIlroy, Katherine L. Plant & Neville A. Stanton. (2021) Why do road traffic collision types repeat themselves? Look back before moving forward. Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries 31:6, pages 652-663.
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Neville A. Stanton, James W. Brown, Kirsten M. A. Revell, Jed Clark, Joy Richardson, Pat Langdon, Mike Bradley, Nermin Caber, Lee Skrypchuk & Simon Thompson. (2021) Modelling Automation–Human Driver Handovers Using Operator Event Sequence Diagrams. Future Transportation 1:2, pages 351-369.
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Katie J. Parnell, Victoria A. Banks, Katherine L. Plant, Thomas G. C. Griffin, Peter Beecroft & Neville A. Stanton. (2019) Predicting Design-Induced Error on the Flight Deck. Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 63:6, pages 938-955.
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Paul B. Stone, Hailey Marie Nelson, Mary E. Fendley & Subhashini Ganapathy. (2021) Development of a novel hybrid cognitive model validation framework for implementation under COVID‐19 restrictions. Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries 31:4, pages 360-374.
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Katie J. Parnell, Victoria A. Banks, Craig K. Allison, Katherine L. Plant, Peter Beecroft & Neville A. Stanton. (2020) Designing flight deck applications: combining insight from end-users and ergonomists. Cognition, Technology & Work 23:2, pages 353-365.
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Yaniel Torres, Sylvie Nadeau & Kurt Landau. (2021) Classification and Quantification of Human Error in Manufacturing: A Case Study in Complex Manual Assembly. Applied Sciences 11:2, pages 749.
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Aoife Lavelle, Mary White, Mark J.D. Griffiths, Dara Byrne & Paul O’Connor. (2020) Human reliability analysis of bronchoscope-assisted percutaneous dilatational tracheostomy: implications for simulation-based education. Advances in Simulation 5:1.
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Luis A. Saavedra-Robinson, Sergio Páez-Sarmiento & Jhon F Ramírez. (2020) Cuantificación del error humano en la cadena de suministro: caso de estudio en los servicios de transporte terrestre. Revista UIS Ingenierías 19:4, pages 287-300.
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Lukman Irshad, H. Onan Demirel, Irem Y. Tumer & Guillaume Brat. (2020) Using Rio-Paris Flight 447 Crash to Assess Human Error and Failure Propagation Analysis Early in Design. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering 6:1.
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Mark A. Sujan, David Embrey & Huayi Huang. (2020) On the application of Human Reliability Analysis in healthcare: Opportunities and challenges. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 194, pages 106189.
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Lukman Irshad, Salman Ahmed, H. Onan Demirel & Irem Y. Tumer. (2019) Computational Functional Failure Analysis to Identify Human Errors During Early Design Stages. Journal of Computing and Information Science in Engineering 19:3.
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Yang Siong Robson Ng & Hamad Rashid. (2019) Enhancing human performance reliability in aircraft pushback operations. International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management 36:4, pages 485-509.
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Anastácio Pinto Gonçalves Filho, Carlos Augusto Souza, Eduardo Luiz Bonecker Siqueira, Mozart Anderson Souza & Tales Pinheiro Vasconcelos. (2019) An analysis of helicopter accident reports in Brazil from a human factors perspective. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 183, pages 39-46.
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Gregory B. Omondi, George Serem, Nancy Abuya, David Gathara, Neville A. Stanton, Dorothy Agedo, Mike English & Georgina A. V. Murphy. (2018) Neonatal nasogastric tube feeding in a low-resource African setting – using ergonomics methods to explore quality and safety issues in task sharing. BMC Nursing 17:1.
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Daniela Schmid & Neville A. Stanton. (2018) How are laser attacks encountered in commercial aviation? A hazard analysis based on systems theory. Safety Science 110, pages 178-191.
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Evica Stojiljkovic, Bojan Bijelic, Miroljub Grozdanovic, Marko Radovanovic & Igor Djokic. (2018) Pilot error in process of helicopter starting. Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology 90:1, pages 158-165.
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Giuliana Faiella, Anam Parand, Bryony Dean Franklin, Prem Chana, Mario Cesarelli, Neville A. Stanton & Nick Sevdalis. (2018) Expanding healthcare failure mode and effect analysis: A composite proactive risk analysis approach. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 169, pages 117-126.
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Behzad Fouladi Dehaghi, Ali Rastin, Maryam Malekzadeh & Leila Ibrarahimi Ghavamabadi. (2017) Analyzing Human Error in Municipal Water Systems Using Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach SHERPA Method. Jundishapur Journal of Health Sciences In Press:In Press.
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N. Goode, P.M. Salmon, N.Z. Taylor, M.G. Lenné & C.F. Finch. (2017) Developing a contributing factor classification scheme for Rasmussen's AcciMap: Reliability and validity evaluation. Applied Ergonomics 64, pages 14-26.
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Nikki Olsen & Ann Williamson. (2017) Application of classification principles to improve the reliability of incident classification systems: A test case using HFACS-ADF. Applied Ergonomics 63, pages 31-40.
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Teena M. Garrison, Leif T. Jensen, Lucas Cagle, John A. McGinley, Daniel W. Carruth, Cindy L. Bethel, Christopher T. Goodin & Phillip J. Durst. 2017. Advances in Ergonomics Modeling, Usability & Special Populations. Advances in Ergonomics Modeling, Usability & Special Populations 613 620 .
Natassia Goode, Gemma J. M. Read, Michelle R. H. van Mulken, Amanda Clacy & Paul M. Salmon. (2016) Designing System Reforms: Using a Systems Approach to Translate Incident Analyses into Prevention Strategies. Frontiers in Psychology 7.
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Catherine Harvey & Neville A. Stanton. 2016. Usability Evaluation for In-Vehicle Systems. Usability Evaluation for In-Vehicle Systems 122 151 .
Nikki S. Olsen & Ann M. Williamson. (2015) Development of safety incident coding systems through improving coding reliability. Applied Ergonomics 51, pages 152-162.
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Dale Su & Kuei-Yuan Chan. (2015) Compensating for Operational Uncertainty in Man–Machine Systems: A Case Study on Intelligent Vehicle Parking Assist System. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B: Mechanical Engineering 1:3.
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Miranda Cornelissen, Roderick McClure, Paul M. Salmon & Neville A. Stanton. (2014) Validating the Strategies Analysis Diagram: Assessing the reliability and validity of a formative method. Applied Ergonomics 45:6, pages 1484-1494.
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Peng Liu & Zhizhong Li. (2014) Human Error Data Collection and Comparison with Predictions by SPAR‐H. Risk Analysis 34:9, pages 1706-1719.
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Neville Stanton, Mark Young & Catherine Harvey. 2014. Guide to Methodology in Ergonomics. Guide to Methodology in Ergonomics 89 98 .
Neville Stanton, Mark Young & Catherine Harvey. 2014. Guide to Methodology in Ergonomics. Guide to Methodology in Ergonomics 9 82 .
Neville A. Stanton, Mark S. Young & Catherine Harvey. 2014. Guide to Methodology in Ergonomics. Guide to Methodology in Ergonomics 34 107 .
Tania di Mascio, Laura Tarantino, Pierpaolo Vittorini & Mattia Caputo. (2013) Design choices: affected by user feedback? affected by system performances?. Design choices: affected by user feedback? affected by system performances?.
Nikki S. Olsen. (2013) Reliability studies of incident coding systems in high hazard industries: A narrative review of study methodology. Applied Ergonomics 44:2, pages 175-184.
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Gemma J. M. Read, Paul M. Salmon & Michael G. Lenné. 2013. Engineering Psychology and Cognitive Ergonomics. Applications and Services. Engineering Psychology and Cognitive Ergonomics. Applications and Services 43 52 .
Nikki S. Olsen. (2011) Coding ATC incident data using HFACS: Inter-coder consensus. Safety Science 49:10, pages 1365-1370.
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Melissa T. Baysari, Carlo Caponecchia & Andrew S. McIntosh. (2011) A reliability and usability study of TRACEr-RAV: The technique for the retrospective analysis of cognitive errors – For rail, Australian version. Applied Ergonomics 42:6, pages 852-859.
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Liang Wang, Yaohua Wang, Xiaoqiang Yang, Kai Cheng, Haishan Yang, Baoguo Zhu, Chengfei Fan & Xinwei Ji. (2011) Coding ATC Incident Data Using HFACS: Intercoder Consensus. International Journal of Quality, Statistics, and Reliability 2011, pages 1-8.
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Paul Salmon, Neville Stanton, Adam Gibbon, Daniel Jenkins & Guy Walker. 2009. Human Factors Methods and Sports Science. Human Factors Methods and Sports Science 325 337 .
Muhammad Ajmal, Susan Power, Tim Smith & George D Shorten. (2009) An ergonomic task analysis of spinal anaesthesia. European Journal of Anaesthesiology 26:12, pages 1037-1042.
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Neville Stanton, Paul Salmon, Daniel Jenkins & Guy Walker. 2009. Human Factors in the Design and Evaluation of Central Control Room Operations. Human Factors in the Design and Evaluation of Central Control Room Operations 337 368 .
Gursimran Singh Walia & Jeffrey C. Carver. (2009) A systematic literature review to identify and classify software requirement errors. Information and Software Technology 51:7, pages 1087-1109.
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Melinda Lyons. (2009) Towards a framework to select techniques for error prediction: Supporting novice users in the healthcare sector. Applied Ergonomics 40:3, pages 379-395.
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Neville A. Stanton, Paul Salmon, Don Harris, Andrew Marshall, Jason Demagalski, Mark S. Young, Thomas Waldmann & Sidney Dekker. (2009) Predicting pilot error: Testing a new methodology and a multi-methods and analysts approach. Applied Ergonomics 40:3, pages 464-471.
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John K. Layer, Waldemar Karwowski & Allen Furr. (2009) The effect of cognitive demands and perceived quality of work life on human performance in manufacturing environments. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics 39:2, pages 413-421.
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Wen-Chin Li, Don Harris, Yueh-Ling Hsu & Lon-Wen Li. 2009. Engineering Psychology and Cognitive Ergonomics. Engineering Psychology and Cognitive Ergonomics 547 553 .
Micky P. Kerr, David S. Knott, Michael A. Moss, Chris W. Clegg & Robin P. Horton. (2008) Assessing the value of human factors initiatives. Applied Ergonomics 39:3, pages 305-315.
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D Phipps, G.H. Meakin, P.C.W. Beatty, C Nsoedo & D Parker. (2008) Human factors in anaesthetic practice: insights from a task analysis. British Journal of Anaesthesia 100:3, pages 333-343.
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B Dhillon. 2008. Reliability Technology, Human Error, and Quality in Health Care. Reliability Technology, Human Error, and Quality in Health Care 165 189 .
Rhonda Lane, Neville A. Stanton & David Harrison. (2006) Applying hierarchical task analysis to medication administration errors. Applied Ergonomics 37:5, pages 669-679.
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H. Hwang, J. Lim, C. Kinnaird, A. G. Nagy, O. N. M. Panton, A. J. Hodgson & K. A. Qayumi. (2005) Correlating motor performance with surgical error in laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Surgical Endoscopy 20:4, pages 651-655.
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Brendan Wallace & Alastair Ross. 2006. Beyond Human Error. Beyond Human Error 65 95 .
N. A. Stanton, D. Harris, P. M. Salmon, J. M. Demagalski, A. Marshall, M. S. Young, S. W. A. Dekker & T. Waldmann. (2016) Predicting design induced pilot error using HET (human error template) – A new formal human error identification method for flight decks. The Aeronautical Journal 110:1104, pages 107-115.
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W. H. Gibson, E. D. Megaw, M. S. Young & E. Lowe. (2005) A taxonomy of human communication errors and application to railway track maintenance. Cognition, Technology & Work 8:1, pages 57-66.
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John Annett & Neville Stanton. 2006. International Review of Industrial and Organizational Psychology 2006. International Review of Industrial and Organizational Psychology 2006 45 78 .
Don Harris, Neville A. Stanton, Andrew Marshall, Mark S. Young, Jason Demagalski & Paul Salmon. (2005) Using SHERPA to predict design-induced error on the flight deck. Aerospace Science and Technology 9:6, pages 525-532.
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A.J. Ross, J.B. Davies & M. Plunkett. (2005) Reliable Qualitative Data for Safety and Risk Management. Process Safety and Environmental Protection 83:2, pages 117-121.
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A.J Ross, B Wallace & J.B Davies. (2004) Technical note: measurement issues in taxonomic reliability. Safety Science 42:8, pages 771-778.
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Neville Stanton. 2004. Handbook of Human Factors and Ergonomics Methods. Handbook of Human Factors and Ergonomics Methods 37-1 37-8 .
Neville A. Stanton & Mark S. Young. (2003) Giving ergonomics away? The application of ergonomics methods by novices. Applied Ergonomics 34:5, pages 479-490.
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B. S. DHILLON & MUTHURAMAN RAJENDRAN. (2012) HUMAN ERROR IN HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS: BIBLIOGRAPHY. International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 10:01, pages 99-117.
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Neville A Stanton & Christopher Baber. (2002) Error by design: methods for predicting device usability. Design Studies 23:4, pages 363-384.
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Janice (Ginny) RedishRandolph G. Bias, Robert BaileyRolf Molich, Joe Dumas & Jared M. Spool. (2002) Usability in practice. Usability in practice.
E Jones, N.A Stanton & D Harrison. (2001) Applying structured methods to Eco-innovation. An evaluation of the Product Ideas Tree diagram. Design Studies 22:6, pages 519-542.
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Jan Noyes & Chris BaberJan Noyes & Chris Baber. 1999. User-Centred Design of Systems. User-Centred Design of Systems 197 217 .

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