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Original Articles

Population forecasting: Do simple models outperform complex models?

Pages 187-202 | Received 20 Feb 1995, Published online: 21 Sep 2009

Keep up to date with the latest research on this topic with citation updates for this article.

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David Burg & Jesse H. Ausubel. (2023) Jewish population trajectories between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Israel Affairs 29:3, pages 653-668.
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RonaldD. Lee, Lawrence Carter & Shripad Tuljapurkar. (1995) Disaggregatton in population forecasting: Do we need it? And how to do it simply. Mathematical Population Studies 5:3, pages 217-234.
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Colin Small & J. Eric Bickel. (2022) Model Complexity and Accuracy: A COVID-19 Case Study. Decision Analysis 19:4, pages 354-383.
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Sergio Ginebri & Carlo Lallo. (2021) Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy. Genus 77:1.
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Branislav Bleha. (2019) How much can societal turning points affect forecasts’ accuracy in Europe? Case of post-communistic transformation in Slovakia and the Czech Republic. European Journal of Futures Research 7:1.
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Phillip Granberry, Christina Kim, Matthew Resseger, Jonathan Lee, Alvaro Lima & Kevin Kang. (2018) Who Is At Risk of Migrating? Developing Synthetic Populations to Produce Efficient Domestic Migration Rates Using the American Community Survey. Urban Science 2:3, pages 80.
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Samir KC, Marcus Wurzer, Markus Speringer & Wolfgang Lutz. (2018) Future population and human capital in heterogeneous India. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115:33, pages 8328-8333.
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Arvydas Jadevicius & Simon Huston. (2015) Property market modelling and forecasting: simple vs complex models. Journal of Property Investment & Finance 33:4, pages 337-361.
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Jack Baker, Adelamar Alcantara, Xiaomin Ruan, Kendra Watkins & Srini Vasan. (2013) A Comparative Evaluation of Error and Bias in Census Tract-Level Age/Sex-Specific Population Estimates: Component I (Net-Migration) vs Component III (Hamilton–Perry). Population Research and Policy Review 32:6, pages 919-942.
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Mikko Myrskylä, Joshua R. Goldstein & Yen‐hsin Alice Cheng. (2013) New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals. Population and Development Review 39:1, pages 31-56.
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Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman & David A. SwansonStanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman & David A. Swanson. 2013. A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections. A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections 323 371 .
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Luis Alvarez, Cristina Santos, Amanda Ramos, Roser Pratdesaba, Paolo Francalacci & María Pilar Aluja. (2010) Mitochondrial DNA patterns in the Iberian Northern plateau: Population dynamics and substructure of the Zamora province. American Journal of Physical Anthropology 142:4, pages 531-539.
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Christina Bohk, Roland Ewald & Adelinde M. Uhrmacher. (2009) Probabilistic population projection with JAMES II. Probabilistic population projection with JAMES II.
Tom Wilson. (2009) A Multistate Model for Projecting Regional Populations by Indigenous Status: An Application to the Northern Territory, Australia. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 41:1, pages 230-249.
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Andrei Rogers. (2008) Demographic Modeling of the Geography of Migration and Population: A Multiregional Perspective. Geographical Analysis 40:3, pages 276-296.
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Greg L Christensen, Ivaylo P Ivanov, Stephen P Wooding, John F Atkins, Anna Mielnik, Peter N Schlegel & Douglas T Carrell. (2006) Identification of polymorphisms and balancing selection in the male infertility candidate gene, ornithine decarboxylase antizyme 3. BMC Medical Genetics 7:1.
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Ó. Moya, H.G. Contreras-Díaz, P. Oromí & C. Juan. (2006) Using statistical phylogeography to infer population history: Case studies on Pimelia darkling beetles from the Canary Islands. Journal of Arid Environments 66:3, pages 477-497.
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MARK A. CULLING, KAREL JANKO, ALICJA BORON, VICTOR P. VASIL’EV, ISABELLE M. CÔTÉ & GODFREY M. HEWITT. (2005) European colonization by the spined loach (Cobitis taenia) from Ponto-Caspian refugia based on mitochondrial DNA variation. Molecular Ecology 15:1, pages 173-190.
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Heather Booth. (2006) Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review. International Journal of Forecasting 22:3, pages 547-581.
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ÓSCAR MOYA, HERMANS G. CONTRERAS-DÍAZ, PEDRO OROMÍ & CARLOS JUAN. (2004) Genetic structure, phylogeography and demography of two ground-beetle species endemic to the Tenerife laurel forest (Canary Islands). Molecular Ecology 13:10, pages 3153-3167.
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Stanley K. Smith & Jeff Tayman. (2003) An evaluation of population projections by age. Demography 40:4, pages 741-757.
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Ewa Tabeau, Peter Ekamper, Corina Huisman & Alinda Bosch. 2001. Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries 159 187 .
Ewa Tabeau, Anneke Van Den Berg Jeths & Christopher Heathcote. 2001. Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries 281 303 .
Stanley K. Smith. (1997) Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models. International Journal of Forecasting 13:4, pages 557-565.
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