References
- Ahlburg , D. A. 1982 . How accurate are the U.S. Bureau of the Census projections of total live births? . Journal of Forecasting , 1 : 365 – 374 .
- Ahlburg , D. A. and Land , K. C. 1992 . Population forecasting: Guest editors’ introduction . International Journal of Forecasting , 8 : 289 – 299 .
- Alonso , W. 1968 . Predicting best with imperfect data . Journal of the American Institute of Planners , 34 (4) : 248 – 255 .
- Armstrong , J. S. and Collopy , E. 1992 . Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons . International Journal of Forecasting , 8 (1) : 99 – 111 .
- Arthur , W. B. and McNicoll , G. 1975 . Large‐scale simulation models in population and development: What use to planners? . Population and Development Review , 1 (2) : 251 – 265 .
- Beaumont , P. M. and Isserman , A. M. 1987 . Comment . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 83 (400) : 1004 – 1009 .
- Brass , W. 1974 . Perspectives in population prediction: Illustrated by the statistics of England and Wales . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A , 137 (4) : 532 – 583 .
- Chenery , H. and Syrquin , M. 1975 . Patterns of Development, 1950–1970 , New York : Oxford University Press .
- Cohen , J. E. 1986a . An uncertainty principle in demography and the unisex issue . The American Statistician , 40 : 32 – 39 .
- Cohen , J. E. 1986b . Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: A comparison of model‐based and empirical approaches . Demography , 23 (1) : 105 – 126 .
- Feeney , G. Comparative structure of low fertility in Japan and the United States . Paper presented at the IIASA Conference on Future Changes in Population Age Structure . October 18–21 1988 , Sopron, Hungary.
- Grummer‐Strawn , L. and Espenshade , T. J. 1991 . “ Evaluating the accuracy of U.S. population projection models ” . In Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions: The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling , Edited by: Citro , C. F. and Hanushek , E. A. Vol. 2 , 305 – 329 . Washington, DC : National Academy Press . Chapter 9
- Isserman , A. M. 1977 . The accuracy of population projections for subcountry areas . Journal of the American Institute of Planners , 43 (3) : 247 – 259 .
- Keilman , N. W. 1990 . Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations , Amsterdam : Swets and Zeitlinger .
- Kelley , A. C. and Williamson , J. G. 1984 . What Drives Third World City Growth? , Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press .
- Keyfitz , N. 1981 . The limits of population forecasting . Population and Development Review , 7 : 579 – 593 .
- Keyfitz , N. 1982 . Can knowledge improve forecasts? . Population and Development Review , 8 : 729 – 751 .
- Keyfitz , N. Demography in the twenty‐first century: The uses of forecasting . In Proceedings of the IUSSP International Population Conferences . Vol. I , pp. 59 – 81 . Liege : International Union for the Scientific Study of Population .
- Ledent , J. and Rogers , A. 1986 . “ Assessing the United Nations urbanization projections for the Asian Pacific ” . In Population Structures and Models , Edited by: Woods , R. and Rees , P. 367 – 389 . London : Allen and Unwin .
- Lee , D. B. Jr. 1973 . Requiem for large‐scale models . Journal of the American Institute of Planners , 39 : 163 – 178 .
- Long , J. The accuracy of population projection methods at the U.S. census bureau . Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America . Apr. 29 1987 , Chicago. ‐May 2
- Long , J. The appropriate level of complexity in official population projections . Paper presented at the Colorado Workshop on Population Forecasting . September 1993 , Boulder, CO.
- Pant , P. N. and Starbuck , W. H. 1990 . Innocents in the forest: Forecasting and research methods . Journal of Management , 16 : 433 – 460 .
- Pittenger , D. B. and Schroeder , E. C. Limits to the size of deterministic demographic forecasting system . Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America . March 28–30 1985 , Boston, MA.
- Rogers , A. 1976 . Shrinking large‐scale population‐projection models by aggregation and decomposition . Environment and Planning , 8 : 515 – 541 .
- Rogers , A. 1985 . Regional Population Projection Models , Beverly Hills : Sage .
- Rogers , A. and Willekens , E . 1978 . The spatial reproductive value and the spatial momentum of zero population growth . Environment and Planning A , 10 (5) : 503 – 518 .
- Rogers , A. and Woodward , J. 1988 . The sources of regional elderly population growth: Migration and aging‐in‐place . Professional Geographer , 40 (4) : 450 – 459 .
- Rogers , A. and Woodward , J. A. 1991 . Assessing state population projections with transparent multiregional demographic models . Population Research and Policy Review , 10 : 1 – 26 .
- Shapiro , A. 1994 . The evolution of investing . Hemispheres United Airlines Magazine , March : 4 – 5 . issue
- Siegel , J. S. 1972 . Development and accuracy of projections of population and households in the United States . Demography , 9 : 51 – 68 .
- Smith , S. K. 1987 . Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 81 : 991 – 1003 .
- Smith , S. K. and Sincich , T. 1992 . Forecasting state and household populations. Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states . International Journal of Forecasting , 8 (3) : 495 – 508 .
- Stoto , M. 1983 . The accuracy of population projections . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 78 : 13 – 20 .
- United Nations . 1980 . Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth , Population Studies, No. 68 New York : Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations .
- United Nations . 1984 . Population Projections: Methodology of the United Nations , Population Studies, No. 83 New York : Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations .
- Vaupel , J. W. and Yashin , A. I. 1985 . Heterogeneity's ruses: Some surprising effects of selection in population dynamics . The American Statistician , 39 : 176 – 185 .
- The author thanks Robert McNown and Dennis Ahlburg for helpful discussions and comments.