6,287
Views
236
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice

Pages 3-21 | Received 01 May 2006, Accepted 01 Aug 2006, Published online: 17 Dec 2007

Keep up to date with the latest research on this topic with citation updates for this article.

Read on this site (25)

Jibin Baby, Seunghwan Lee & Dae-Young Kim. (2023) Accidents? Not me: The impact of optimism bias on visitor perceptions in cultural festivals. Journal of Convention & Event Tourism 24:3, pages 223-245.
Read now
Slavka Zeković & Tamara Maričić. (2022) Contemporary governance of urban mega-projects: a case study of the Belgrade waterfront. Territory, Politics, Governance 10:4, pages 527-548.
Read now
Ting Wang, Albert P.C Chan, Qinghua He & Junyan Xu. (2022) Identifying the gaps in construction megaproject management research: a bibliographic analysis. International Journal of Construction Management 22:9, pages 1585-1596.
Read now
Haozhi Pan, Yoonshin Kwak & Brian Deal. (2022) Participatory Development of Planning Support Systems to Improve Empowerment and Localization. Journal of Urban Technology 29:2, pages 33-54.
Read now
Judith Plummer Braeckman, Tim Disselhoff & Julian Kirchherr. (2020) Cost and schedule overruns in large hydropower dams: an assessment of projects completed since 2000. International Journal of Water Resources Development 36:5, pages 839-854.
Read now
Lin Wang, Martin Kunc & Jianping Li. (2020) Project portfolio implementation under uncertainty and interdependencies: A simulation study of behavioural responses. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71:9, pages 1426-1436.
Read now
Nick Benschop, Cokky A. R. Hilhorst, Arno L. P. Nuijten & Mark Keil. (2020) Detection of early warning signals for overruns in IS projects: linguistic analysis of business case language. European Journal of Information Systems 29:2, pages 190-202.
Read now
Chandrima Mukhopadhyay & Darshini Mahadevia. (2019) How do NDC and UN’s sustainable development goals introduce new meaning of sustainability within mega transport project appraisals?. Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development 1:3, pages 237-254.
Read now
Henning Grosse. (2019) An insider’s point of view: autoethnography in the construction industry. Construction Management and Economics 37:9, pages 481-498.
Read now
Jing Du, Dong Zhao & Ou Zhang. (2019) Impacts of human communication network topology on group optimism bias in Capital Project Planning: a human-subject experiment. Construction Management and Economics 37:1, pages 44-60.
Read now
. (2018) Corrigenda. The American Statistician 72:4, pages 394-394.
Read now
Marina Marinelli, Kleopatra Petroutsatou, Nikolaos Fragkakis & Sergios Lambropoulos. (2018) Rethinking new public infrastructure value for money in recession times: the Greek case. International Journal of Construction Management 18:4, pages 331-342.
Read now
Pierre Mukheibir & Cynthia Mitchell. (2018) The influence of context and perception when designing out risks associated with non-potable urban water reuse. Urban Water Journal 15:5, pages 461-468.
Read now
Jake J. Caffieri, Peter E. D. Love, Andrew Whyte & Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui. (2018) Planning for production in construction: controlling costs in major capital projects. Production Planning & Control 29:1, pages 41-50.
Read now
Peter E. D. Love, Zahir Irani, Jim Smith, Michael Regan & Junxiao Liu. (2017) Cost performance of public infrastructure projects: the nemesis and nirvana of change-orders. Production Planning & Control 28:13, pages 1081-1092.
Read now
Rajaa Alasad & Ibrahim Motawa. (2015) Dynamic demand risk assessment for toll road projects. Construction Management and Economics 33:10, pages 799-817.
Read now
Sandro Fabbro, Lara Brunello & Marco Dean. (2015) Reframing Large Transport Infrastructure Plans: A Study on European Corridors with a Focus on North-eastern Italy. International Planning Studies 20:4, pages 323-349.
Read now
Hans Lind & Fredrik Brunes. (2015) Explaining cost overruns in infrastructure projects: a new framework with applications to Sweden. Construction Management and Economics 33:7, pages 554-568.
Read now
Alan K. Gideon & James S. Wasek. (2015) Predicting the Likelihood of Cost Overruns: An Empirical Examination of Major Department of Defense Acquisition Programs. Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics 8:1, pages 34-48.
Read now
Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui & Simon D. Smith. (2014) Dealing with construction cost overruns using data mining. Construction Management and Economics 32:7-8, pages 682-694.
Read now
PeterE.D. Love & DavidJ. Edwards. (2013) Curbing rework in offshore projects: systemic classification of risks with dialogue and narratives. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 9:11, pages 1118-1135.
Read now
Evert Meijers, Joris Hoekstra & Marjolein Spaans. (2013) Fixed link, fixed effects? Housing market outcomes of new infrastructure development in the Dutch Delta Area. Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 113:1, pages 11-24.
Read now
Christian Koch. (2012) Contested overruns and performance of offshore wind power plants. Construction Management and Economics 30:8, pages 609-622.
Read now
Brian Atkin. (2012) Planning Major Projects. Construction Management and Economics 30:8, pages 708-710.
Read now

Articles from other publishers (211)

Peter E. D. Love, Lavagnon A. Ika, Jane Matthews & Weili Fang. (2024) Risk and Uncertainty in the Cost Contingency of Transport Projects: Accommodating Bias or Heuristics, or Both?. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 71, pages 205-219.
Crossref
Luis Alberto Camones GarcíaCarter B. Casady. (2024) Reviewing the Efficacy of Flexible Contracts: A Reassessment of the Least Present Value of Revenue Model for Public–Private Partnerships. Journal of Management in Engineering 40:1.
Crossref
Ryan O’Reilly, Jed Cohen & Johannes Reichl. (2024) Achievable load shifting potentials for the European residential sector from 2022–2050. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 189, pages 113959.
Crossref
Rebekka Baerenbold. (2023) Reducing risks in megaprojects: The potential of reference class forecasting. Project Leadership and Society 4, pages 100103.
Crossref
Jens Schmidt. (2023) Mitigating risk of failure in information technology projects: Causes and mechanisms. Project Leadership and Society 4, pages 100097.
Crossref
Sam McLeod. (2023) Rethinking public infrastructure megaproject performance: Theorizing alternative benefits, and the need for open science in project research. Project Leadership and Society 4, pages 100080.
Crossref
Agata Czarnigowska. (2023) Niepewność kosztów przedsięwzięciabudowlanego: statystyka to za mało. BUILDER 317:12, pages 116-118.
Crossref
Oluwole Alfred Olatunji & Chamil Erik D. Ramanayaka. (2023) Client attributes that motivate contractors' bid decision. Built Environment Project and Asset Management 13:6, pages 799-812.
Crossref
Rebecca Lordan-Perret, Rebekka Bärenbold, Hannes Weigt & Robert Rosner. (2023) An ex-ante method to verify commercial U.S. nuclear power plant decommissioning cost estimates. Energy Economics 127, pages 107023.
Crossref
Grant Douglas. 2023. Adapting for Inertia: Delivering Large Government ICT Projects in Australia and New Zealand. Adapting for Inertia: Delivering Large Government ICT Projects in Australia and New Zealand.
Peter E. D. Love, Lavagnon A. Ika, Jane Matthews & Weili Fang. (2023) Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Project Performance: Generating a Narrative of Context and Meaning. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 70:10, pages 3637-3652.
Crossref
Mostafa Barani, Stian Backe, Ryan O’Reilly & Pedro Crespo del Granado. (2023) Residential demand response in the European power system: No significant impact on capacity expansion and cost savings. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, pages 101198.
Crossref
Verena Stingl & Joana Geraldi. (2023) Imagining futures: Cognitive processes of desirable or undesirable project prospections. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 194, pages 122701.
Crossref
Jose Rodrigo Juarez Cornelio, Tristano Sainati & Giorgio Locatelli. (2023) Digging in the megaproject's graveyard: Why do megaprojects die, and how to check their health?. International Journal of Project Management 41:6, pages 102501.
Crossref
Etienne Theising, Dominik Wied & Daniel Ziggel. (2022) Reference class selection in similarity‐based forecasting of corporate sales growth. Journal of Forecasting 42:5, pages 1069-1085.
Crossref
Joachim Thiel & Gernot Grabher. (2023) Abolish, Accept, Apply: Coping With Ignorance in Project Ecologies. Project Management Journal.
Crossref
Jeffrey K. Pinto. (2023) Is this How Big Things Get Done?. International Journal of Project Management 41:5, pages 102484.
Crossref
Yizi Chen, Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui, Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem & Asheem Shrestha. (2023) Toward a Deeper Understanding of Optimism Bias and Transport Project Cost Overrun. Project Management Journal.
Crossref
Alolote I. Amadi. (2023) A weather-adaptive perspective to building cost estimation in Nigeria: exploring climate-induced cost variance. International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation.
Crossref
N Wanigarathna, K Jones, F Mulder, B Borzi, F Bozzoni & E Festa. (2023) Economic appraisal standards for planning earthquake early warning infrastructure acquisition. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1176:1, pages 012030.
Crossref
Patricia C. Johnson, Phoebe Everingham & Christine Everingham. (2023) The political economy of the supercars Newcastle 500 event. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights 4:1, pages 100094.
Crossref
Aaron Chadee, Hector Martin, Sihara Gallage & Upaka Rathnayake. (2023) Reducing Cost Overrun in Public Housing Projects: A Simplified Reference Class Forecast for Small Island Developing States. Buildings 13:4, pages 998.
Crossref
Alexandra Kriz, Maria Rumyantseva & Catherine Welch. (2023) When does the internationalization process begin? Problematizing temporal boundaries in international business. Journal of World Business 58:3, pages 101423.
Crossref
Mogens Frank Mikkelsen & Kirsi Aaltonen. (2022) IT-enabled management of project complexity – An Action Design Research project. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business 16:1, pages 141-164.
Crossref
Johan Ninan, Stewart Clegg, Steve Burdon & John Clay. (2023) Reimagining Infrastructure Megaproject Delivery: An Australia—New Zealand Perspective. Sustainability 15:4, pages 2971.
Crossref
Oliver Thomas & Olivier Reimann. (2022) The bias blind spot among HR employees in hiring decisions. German Journal of Human Resource Management: Zeitschrift für Personalforschung 37:1, pages 5-22.
Crossref
Lisa A. Delise, Brandon Lee & Yunsik Choi. (2023) Understanding project management performance using a comparative overrun measure. International Journal of Project Management 41:2, pages 102450.
Crossref
Krzysztof Marcinek, Monika Foltyn-Zarychta & Marcin Tomecki. 2023. Megaprojekty. Dylematy oceny i podejmowania decyzji. Megaprojekty. Dylematy oceny i podejmowania decyzji.
Chinedum Eluwa, Baptiste Francois, Alec Bernstein & Casey Brown. (2023) Exploring the Implications of Modeling Choices on Prediction of Irrigation Water Savings. Water Resources Research 59:1.
Crossref
Dorota Kuchta & Oksana Yakivets. 2023. Artificial Intelligence in HCI. Artificial Intelligence in HCI 533 541 .
Efrain Rosemberg Montes. 2023. Judgment in Predictive Analytics. Judgment in Predictive Analytics 289 309 .
Ali El Chaabi, Nikolaos Anevlavis & Christian Thuesen. 2023. SDGs in Construction Economics and Organization. SDGs in Construction Economics and Organization 313 325 .
Mike Raco, Callum Ward, Frances Brill, Danielle Sanderson, Sonia Freire-Trigo, Jess Ferm, Iqbal Hamiduddin & Nicola Livingstone. (2022) Towards a virtual statecraft: Housing targets and the governance of urban housing markets. Progress in Planning 166, pages 100655.
Crossref
Jeen Guo, Pengcheng Xiang, Xia Wang & Yuanli Lee. (2022) Predicting and managing megaproject gray rhino risks with IF-ANP and DEMATEL based on panel data. Expert Systems with Applications 208, pages 118243.
Crossref
Johan Ninan, Ashwin Mahalingam & Stewart Clegg. (2022) Asset creation team rationalities and strategic discourses: evidence from India. Infrastructure Asset Management 9:3, pages 114-122.
Crossref
Ilias Krystallis & Giorgio Locatelli. (2022) Normalizing White-Collar Wrongdoing in Professional Service Firms. Journal of Management in Engineering 38:5.
Crossref
Seyed Ashkan Zarghami & Ofer Zwikael. (2022) Measuring project resilience – Learning from the past to enhance decision making in the face of disruption. Decision Support Systems 160, pages 113831.
Crossref
Iain Docherty, John Stone, Carey Curtis, Claus Hedegaard Sørensen, Alexander Paulsson, Crystal Legacy & Greg Marsden. (2022) The case for ‘public’ transport in the age of automated mobility. Cities 128, pages 103784.
Crossref
Sam Uden, Robert Socolow & Chris Greig. (2022) Bridging capital discipline and energy scenarios. Energy & Environmental Science 15:8, pages 3114-3118.
Crossref
Catherine Cleophas & Claudia Schüetze. (2022) Decision biases in revenue management revisited: Dynamic decision‐making under stationary and nonstationary demand. Decision Sciences.
Crossref
Jeen Guo, Pengcheng Xiang & Yuanli Lee. (2022) Analyzing and Controlling Construction Engineering Project Gray Rhino Risks with Innovative MCDM Methods: Interference Fuzzy Analytical Network Process and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory. Applied Sciences 12:11, pages 5693.
Crossref
Alireza Moghayedi & Abimbola Windapo. (2022) Modelling the uncertainty of cost and time in highway projects. Infrastructure Asset Management 9:2, pages 73-88.
Crossref
G. Jenkins, G. Olasehinde-Williams & S. Baurzhan. (2022) Is there a net economic loss from employing reference class forecasting in the appraisal of hydropower projects?. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 159, pages 112218.
Crossref
Peter E.D. Love & Lavagnon A. Ika. (2022) Making Sense of Hospital Project MisPerformance: Over Budget, Late, Time and Time Again—Why? And What Can Be Done About It?. Engineering 12, pages 183-201.
Crossref
Nick Benschop, Arno L.P. Nuijten, Cokky A.R. Hilhorst & Mark Keil. (2022) Undesirable framing effects in information systems projects: Analysis of adjective usage in IS project business cases. Information & Management 59:3, pages 103615.
Crossref
Jianfeng Zhao, David Greenwood, Niraj Thurairajah, Henry J. Liu & Richard Haigh. (2022) Value for money in transport infrastructure investment: An enhanced model for better procurement decisions. Transport Policy 118, pages 68-78.
Crossref
John Patrick Fitzsimmons, Ruodan Lu, Ying Hong & Ioannis Brilakis. (2022) Construction schedule risk analysis – a hybrid machine learning approach. Journal of Information Technology in Construction 27, pages 70-93.
Crossref
James Prater, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos & Tony Ma. 2022. Research Anthology on Agile Software, Software Development, and Testing. Research Anthology on Agile Software, Software Development, and Testing 2001 2014 .
Cong Cong, Yoonshin Kwak & Brian Deal. (2022) Incorporating active transportation modes in large scale urban modeling to inform sustainable urban development. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 91, pages 101726.
Crossref
Elsa Kristiansen, Birgit A.A. Solem, Therese Dille & Barrie Houlihan. (2021) Stakeholder Management of Temporary Sport Event Organizations. Event Management 25:6, pages 619-639.
Crossref
You Zhou, Lingzhu Zhang & Alain J F Chiaradia. (2021) An adaptation of reference class forecasting for the assessment of large-scale urban planning vision, a SEM-ANN approach to the case of Hong Kong Lantau tomorrow. Land Use Policy 109, pages 105701.
Crossref
Jose Rodrigo Juarez Cornelio, Tristano Sainati & Giorgio Locatelli. (2021) What does it take to kill a megaproject? The reverse escalation of commitment. International Journal of Project Management 39:7, pages 774-787.
Crossref
Sandeep GandhiGeetam Tiwari. (2021) Sociopsychological, Instrumental, and Sociodemographic Determinants of Travel Mode Choice Behavior in Delhi, India. Journal of Urban Planning and Development 147:3.
Crossref
Herve Kabanda, Alex Romard, Fuze Yurtsever, Anjali Wadhera, Joshua Andrews & Craig Merrett. (2021) Construction Time Estimation Function for Canadian Utility Scale Power Plants. Energies 14:17, pages 5421.
Crossref
Steven R. Henderson. (2020) Policy mobility, advocacy and problem–potential bridging practices: A review of Scottish city council tax incremental financing business cases. Urban Studies 58:9, pages 1811-1830.
Crossref
S.A. Hirmer, H. George-Williams, J. Rhys, D. McNicholl & M. McCulloch. (2021) Stakeholder decision-making: Understanding Sierra Leone's energy sector. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 145, pages 111093.
Crossref
Eli Awtrey, Nico Thornley, Jennifer E. Dannals, Christopher M. Barnes & Eric Luis Uhlmann. (2021) Distribution neglect in performance evaluations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 165, pages 213-227.
Crossref
Christopher Hetro, Michael Hannagan & Thomas Maheady. 2021. 81St Conference on Glass Problems. 81St Conference on Glass Problems 37 50 .
Matej Lorko, Maroš Servátka & Le Zhang. (2020) Improving the Accuracy of Project Schedules. Production and Operations Management 30:6, pages 1633-1646.
Crossref
Cindrela Devi Annamalaisami & Ananthanarayanan Kuppuswamy. (2021) Managing Cost Risks: Toward a Taxonomy of Cost Overrun Factors in Building Construction Projects. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering 7:2.
Crossref
Siddharth BhandariMatthew R. Hallowell. (2021) Identifying and Controlling Biases in Expert-Opinion Research: Guidelines for Variations of Delphi, Nominal Group Technique, and Focus Groups. Journal of Management in Engineering 37:3.
Crossref
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn. (2020) Regression to the tail: Why the Olympics blow up. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 53:2, pages 233-260.
Crossref
James Prater, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos & Tony Ma. (2019) From “Technical Newbies” to “Optimistic Politicians”. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business 14:2, pages 329-344.
Crossref
Aaron Chadee, Indrajit Ray & Xsitaaz Chadee. (2021) Systemic Issues Influencing Technical Certainty in Social Housing Programmes in a Small Island Developing State. Buildings 11:2, pages 65.
Crossref
Bent Flyvbjerg & Dirk W. Bester. (2021) The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 12:3, pages 395-419.
Crossref
Haiyan Liu, Rong Zhang & Yawen Cao. 2021. Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate. Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate 1063 1073 .
Wayne Williamson. 2021. Urban Informatics and Future Cities. Urban Informatics and Future Cities 93 108 .
Hossein Seif Zadeh, Terence Weir, Alexei I. Filinkov & Steven Lord. 2021. Data and Decision Sciences in Action 2. Data and Decision Sciences in Action 2 185 194 .
Ting Wang, Albert P. C. Chan & Qinghua He. 2021. Collaboration and Integration in Construction, Engineering, Management and Technology. Collaboration and Integration in Construction, Engineering, Management and Technology 83 88 .
Tristano Sainati, Fiona Zakaria, Giorgio Locatelli, P. Andrew Sleigh & Barbara Evans. (2020) Understanding the costs of urban sanitation: towards a standard costing model. Journal of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for Development 10:4, pages 642-658.
Crossref
Katie Biggs, Daniel Hind, Rebecca Gossage-Worrall, Kirsty Sprange, David White, Jessica Wright, Robin Chatters, Katherine Berry, Diana Papaioannou, Mike Bradburn, Stephen J. Walters & Cindy Cooper. (2020) Challenges in the design, planning and implementation of trials evaluating group interventions. Trials 21:1.
Crossref
Rami Bou Khalil, Ghassan Sleilaty, Joseph El-Khoury & Elie Nemr. (2020) Teaching the use of framing and decontextualization to address context-based bias in psychiatry. Asian Journal of Psychiatry 54, pages 102276.
Crossref
Carole Turley Voulgaris. (2019) Trust in forecasts? Correlates with ridership forecast accuracy for fixed-guideway transit projects. Transportation 47:5, pages 2439-2477.
Crossref
Wiebke Rabe, Genia Kostka & Sabrina Habich-Sobiegalla. (2021) Socio-Economic Development and Infrastructure Cost Performance in China: Comparing Transport and Energy Sectors. Journal of Current Chinese Affairs 49:2, pages 185-206.
Crossref
Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento. (2019) Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects. Transportation 47:4, pages 1571-1606.
Crossref
Armando Castro, Nelson Phillips & Shaz Ansari. (2020) Corporate Corruption: A Review and an Agenda for Future Research. Academy of Management Annals 14:2, pages 935-968.
Crossref
Manuela Liliana Muresan. 2020. New Trends and Opportunities for Central and Eastern European Tourism. New Trends and Opportunities for Central and Eastern European Tourism 142 167 .
Carl Koopmans & Niek Mouter. 2020. Standard Transport Appraisal Methods. Standard Transport Appraisal Methods 1 42 .
Emma Pleeging & Martijn Burger. 2020. Historical and Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Hope. Historical and Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Hope 165 178 .
Nicolay Worren, Jeroen van Bree & William Zybach. (2019) Organization design challenges: results from a practitioner survey. Journal of Organization Design 8:1.
Crossref
Katie Biggs, Daniel Hind, Mike Bradburn, Lizzie Swaby & Steve Brown. (2019) Design, planning and implementation lessons learnt from a surgical multi-centre randomised controlled trial. Trials 20:1.
Crossref
Johan Ninan, Ashwin Mahalingam & Stewart Clegg. (2019) External Stakeholder Management Strategies and Resources in Megaprojects: An Organizational Power Perspective. Project Management Journal 50:6, pages 625-640.
Crossref
Gerardo Zarazua de Rubens & Lance Noel. (2019) The non-technical barriers to large scale electricity networks: Analysing the case for the US and EU supergrids. Energy Policy 135, pages 111018.
Crossref
Nils O.E. Olsson, Johan Nyström & Roger Pyddoke. (2019) Governance regimes for large transport infrastructure investment projects: Comparative analysis of Norway and Sweden. Case Studies on Transport Policy 7:4, pages 837-848.
Crossref
Gábor Király. (2019) A vállalkozó egyetem fogalmi tere. Elméleti keretek és gyakorlati kérdések. Közgazdasági Szemle 66:11, pages 1187-1209.
Crossref
Tim Neerup Themsen. (2019) The processes of public megaproject cost estimation: The inaccuracy of reference class forecasting. Financial Accountability & Management 35:4, pages 337-352.
Crossref
. 2019. Values, Rationality, and Power: Developing Organizational Wisdom. Values, Rationality, and Power: Developing Organizational Wisdom 255 270 .
Gerald Eke, John ElgyGayan Wedawatta. (2019) Establishing a Link between Contractor Selection Strategy and Project Outcomes: Simulation Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 145:10.
Crossref
Qinghua He, Ting Wang, Albert P.C. Chan, Hanzhang Li & Yangxue Chen. (2019) Identifying the gaps in project success research. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 26:8, pages 1553-1573.
Crossref
. 2019. Gestion des risques et contrôle interne. Gestion des risques et contrôle interne 283 286 .
Daniel Y. Suh & Megan S. Ryerson. (2019) Forecast to grow: Aviation demand forecasting in an era of demand uncertainty and optimism bias. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 128, pages 400-416.
Crossref
Peter E.D. Love, Lavagnon A. Ika & Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui. (2019) On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 126, pages 397-408.
Crossref
Jing Du, Qi Wang & Qian Shi. (2019) Description–experience gap under imperfect information. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 26:6, pages 1151-1170.
Crossref
Ali Akbari Ahmadabadi & Gholamreza Heravi. (2019) Risk assessment framework of PPP-megaprojects focusing on risk interaction and project success. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 124, pages 169-188.
Crossref
Richard Ohene Asiedu & Ebenezer Adaku. (2019) Cost overruns of public sector construction projects: a developing country perspective. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business 13:1, pages 66-84.
Crossref
James Prater, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos & Tony Ma. (2019) Dilbert Moments. International Journal of Information Technology Project Management 10:2, pages 29-40.
Crossref
Peter E.D. Love, Michael C.P. Sing, Lavagnon A. Ika & Sidney Newton. (2019) The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 122, pages 1-20.
Crossref
Francisco Pinheiro Catalão, Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento. (2019) The determinants of cost deviations and overruns in transport projects, an endogenous models approach. Transport Policy 74, pages 224-238.
Crossref
Simona Hašková. (2019) Randomness vs. fuzziness in managerial decision-making. SHS Web of Conferences 61, pages 01002.
Crossref
Johan Ninan, Stewart Clegg & Ashwin Mahalingam. (2019) Branding and governmentality for infrastructure megaprojects: The role of social media. International Journal of Project Management 37:1, pages 59-72.
Crossref
Shalin Hai-JewShalin Hai-Jew. 2019. Designing Instruction For Open Sharing. Designing Instruction For Open Sharing 229 267 .
Dan Lovallo & Olivier Sibony. (2018) Broadening the Frame: How Behavioral Strategy Redefines Strategic Decisions. Strategy Science 3:4, pages 658-667.
Crossref
Magne Jorgensen. (2018) Looking Back on Previous Estimation Error as a Method to Improve the Uncertainty Assessment of Benefits and Costs of Software Development Projects. Looking Back on Previous Estimation Error as a Method to Improve the Uncertainty Assessment of Benefits and Costs of Software Development Projects.
Bent Flyvbjerg, Atif Ansar, Alexander Budzier, Søren Buhl, Chantal Cantarelli, Massimo Garbuio, Carsten Glenting, Mette Skamris Holm, Dan Lovallo, Daniel Lunn, Eric Molin, Arne Rønnest, Allison Stewart & Bert van Wee. (2018) Five things you should know about cost overrun. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 118, pages 174-190.
Crossref
Huimin Liu, Canhui Jiang, Yan Liu, Marcel Hertogh & Xue Lyu. (2018) Optimism Bias Evaluation and Decision-Making Risk Forecast on Bridge Project Cost Based on Reference Class Forecasting: Evidence from China. Sustainability 10:11, pages 3981.
Crossref
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Sanjiv Erat & Joel Wooten. 2018. The Handbook of Behavioral Operations. The Handbook of Behavioral Operations 367 392 .
Oluwole Alfred Olatunji, Adenike Omolabake Orundami & Oluwatomi Ogundare. (2018) Causal relationship between material price fluctuation and project’s outturn costs. Built Environment Project and Asset Management 8:4, pages 358-371.
Crossref
Anna Neumeier, Sven Radszuwill & Tirazheh Zare Garizy. (2018) Modeling project criticality in IT project portfolios. International Journal of Project Management 36:6, pages 833-844.
Crossref
Peter E.D. Love & Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui. (2018) Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 113, pages 357-368.
Crossref
Stewart Clegg, Catherine P. Killen, Christopher Biesenthal & Shankar Sankaran. (2018) Practices, projects and portfolios: Current research trends and new directions. International Journal of Project Management 36:5, pages 762-772.
Crossref
Diletta Colette Invernizzi, Giorgio Locatelli & Naomi J Brookes. (2018) Cost overruns – helping to define what they really mean. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Civil Engineering 171:2, pages 85-90.
Crossref
Ayobami Oyewo, Javier Farfan, Pasi Peltoniemi & Christian Breyer. (2018) Repercussion of Large Scale Hydro Dam Deployment: The Case of Congo Grand Inga Hydro Project. Energies 11:4, pages 972.
Crossref
Alolote Ibim Amadi & Anthony Higham. (2018) The trickle-down effect of psycho-social constructs and knowledge deficiencies as organizational barriers to cost performance on highway projects. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction 23:1, pages 57-72.
Crossref
Muhammad Umer Farooq, Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem & Husnain Arshad. (2018) Improving the risk quantification under behavioural tendencies: A tale of construction projects. International Journal of Project Management 36:3, pages 414-428.
Crossref
EEA Wolf & Wouter Van Dooren. (2017) ‘Time to move on’ or ‘taking more time’? How disregarding multiple perspectives on time can increase policy-making conflict. Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space 36:2, pages 340-356.
Crossref
Bent Flyvbjerg. (2018) Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?. World Development 103, pages 383-386.
Crossref
Hedley Smyth, Laurence Lecoeuvre & Philippe Vaesken. (2018) Co-creation of value and the project context: Towards application on the case of Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station. International Journal of Project Management 36:1, pages 170-183.
Crossref
Paul Parsons. 2018. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations 137 147 .
Sindre Lorentzen, Atle Oglend & Petter Osmundsen. (2017) Cost overruns on the Norwegian continental shelf: The element of surprise. Energy 133, pages 1094-1107.
Crossref
Maryam ShahtaheriCarl T. HaasRoozbeh Rashedi. (2017) Applying Very Large Scale Integration Reliability Theory for Understanding the Impacts of Type II Risks on Megaprojects. Journal of Management in Engineering 33:4.
Crossref
Ibrahim Saidu & Winston Shakantu. (2017) An investigation into cost overruns for ongoing building projects in Abuja, Nigeria. Acta Structilia 24:1.
Crossref
Leandro Ranolfi Girardi, Roque Rabechini Junior & José da Assunção Moutinho. (2017) Caracterização da gestão de fatores de risco em projetos de infraestrutura. Gestão & Produção 25:1, pages 30-43.
Crossref
James Prater, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos & Tony Ma. (2017) Optimism bias within the project management context. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business 10:2, pages 370-385.
Crossref
Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui, Peter E. D. Love, Simon D. Smith & Fran Ackermann. (2017) Toward a Systemic View to Cost Overrun Causation in Infrastructure Projects: A Review and Implications for Research. Project Management Journal 48:2, pages 88-98.
Crossref
Giorgio Locatelli, Diletta Colette Invernizzi & Naomi J. Brookes. (2017) Project characteristics and performance in Europe: An empirical analysis for large transport infrastructure projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 98, pages 108-122.
Crossref
Wenxue Lu, YuanYuan Hua & SuJuan Zhang. (2017) Logistic regression analysis for factors influencing cost performance of design-bid-build and design-build projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 24:1, pages 118-132.
Crossref
Patrick James & Steve A. Yetiv. 2017. Advancing Interdisciplinary Approaches to International Relations. Advancing Interdisciplinary Approaches to International Relations 323 337 .
K. Chandrashekhar Iyer & Partha S. Banerjee. (2016) Project ambidexterity: case of recovering schedule delay in a brownfield airport project in India. Organization, Technology and Management in Construction: an International Journal 8:1, pages 1464-1481.
Crossref
Olav Torp & Ole Klakegg. (2016) Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant. Administrative Sciences 6:4, pages 14.
Crossref
Welton Chang, Eva Chen, Barbara Mellers & Philip Tetlock. (2023) Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments. Judgment and Decision Making 11:5, pages 509-526.
Crossref
Omotola Awojobi & Glenn P. Jenkins. (2016) Managing the cost overrun risks of hydroelectric dams: An application of reference class forecasting techniques. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 63, pages 19-32.
Crossref
Gabriel J. Power, Mark Burris, Sharada Vadali & Dmitry Vedenov. (2016) Valuation of strategic options in public–private partnerships. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 90, pages 50-68.
Crossref
Ole Jonny Klakegg & Steen Lichtenberg. (2016) Successive Cost Estimation – Successful Budgeting of Major Projects. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 226, pages 176-183.
Crossref
Jessica Wiese, Roger Buehler & Dale Griffin. (2023) Backward planning: Effects of planning direction on predictions of task completion time. Judgment and Decision Making 11:2, pages 147-167.
Crossref
Carl Thompson, Ryan Pulleyblank, Steve Parrott & Holly Essex. (2015) The cost‐effectiveness of quality improvement projects: a conceptual framework, checklist and online tool for considering the costs and consequences of implementation‐based quality improvement. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 22:1, pages 26-30.
Crossref
Ole Jonny Klakegg, Terry Williams & Asmamaw Tadege Shiferaw. (2016) Taming the ‘trolls’: Major public projects in the making. International Journal of Project Management 34:2, pages 282-296.
Crossref
Genia Kostka & Niklas Anzinger. 2016. Large Infrastructure Projects in Germany. Large Infrastructure Projects in Germany 147 189 .
Jobst Fiedler & Sascha Schuster. 2016. Large Infrastructure Projects in Germany. Large Infrastructure Projects in Germany 39 85 .
Genia Kostka & Niklas Anzinger. 2016. Large Infrastructure Projects in Germany. Large Infrastructure Projects in Germany 15 38 .
Genia Kostka & Jobst Fiedler. 2016. Large Infrastructure Projects in Germany. Large Infrastructure Projects in Germany 1 13 .
David White & Daniel Hind. (2015) Projection of participant recruitment to primary care research: a qualitative study. Trials 16:1.
Crossref
Olugbenga Jide Olaniran, Peter E. D. Love, David Edwards, Oluwole Alfred Olatunji & Jane Matthews. (2015) Cost Overruns in Hydrocarbon Megaprojects: A Critical Review and Implications for Research. Project Management Journal 46:6, pages 126-138.
Crossref
Julian Kopmann, Alexander Kock, Catherine P. Killen & Hans Georg Gemunden. (2015) Business Case Control in Project Portfolios—An Empirical Investigation of Performance Consequences and Moderating Effects. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 62:4, pages 529-543.
Crossref
Naomi J. Brookes & Giorgio Locatelli. (2015) Power plants as megaprojects: Using empirics to shape policy, planning, and construction management. Utilities Policy 36, pages 57-66.
Crossref
Jane Elisabeth FriskFrank BannisterRikard Lindgren. (2015) Evaluation of Information System Investments: A Value Dials approach to closing the theory-practice gap. Journal of Information Technology 30:3, pages 276-292.
Crossref
Philip Mark Plotch. (2015) What’s Taking So Long? Identifying the Underlying Causes of Delays in Planning Transportation Megaprojects in the United States. Journal of Planning Literature 30:3, pages 282-295.
Crossref
Thomas Schultze & Stefan Schulz-Hardt. (2015) The impact of biased information and corresponding meta-information on escalating commitment. Journal of Economic Psychology 49, pages 108-119.
Crossref
Brian H. MacGillivray & Keith Richards. (2015) Approaches to evaluating model quality across different regime types in environmental and public health governance. Global Environmental Change 33, pages 23-31.
Crossref
Eamonn Molloy & Trish Chetty. (2015) The Rocky Road to Legacy: Lessons from the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Stadium Program. Project Management Journal 46:3, pages 88-107.
Crossref
Calvin Jones & ShiNa Li. (2015) The economic importance of meetings and conferences: A satellite account approach. Annals of Tourism Research 52, pages 117-133.
Crossref
Per Hetland. (2015) Popularizing the Internet. Nordicom Review 36:2.
Crossref
Vasilios Zarikas & Christos P. Kitsos. 2015. Theory and Practice of Risk Assessment. Theory and Practice of Risk Assessment 235 247 .
Derek Walker & Mattias Jacobsson. (2014) A rationale for alliancing within a public-private partnership. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 21:6, pages 648-673.
Crossref
Stefano Moroni. (2014) Grandi e piccole opere Per un'azione pubblica responsabile. SCIENZE REGIONALI:3, pages 103-112.
Crossref
Dan Galorath. (2014) Why Can't People Estimate: Estimation Bias and Strategic Mis-estimation. Why Can't People Estimate: Estimation Bias and Strategic Mis-estimation.
Dejan Makovšek. (2014) Systematic construction risk, cost estimation mechanism and unit price movements. Transport Policy 35, pages 135-145.
Crossref
Werner G. Meyer. (2014) The Effect of Optimism Bias on the Decision to Terminate Failing Projects. Project Management Journal 45:4, pages 7-20.
Crossref
James Odeck. (2014) Do reforms reduce the magnitudes of cost overruns in road projects? Statistical evidence from Norway. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 65, pages 68-79.
Crossref
Kenneth Button. (2014) Transport safety and traffic forecasting: An economist's perspective. IATSS Research 38:1, pages 27-31.
Crossref
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn. (2014) Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development. Energy Policy 69, pages 43-56.
Crossref
D Stamatis. 2014. Introduction to Risk and Failures. Introduction to Risk and Failures 1 24 .
Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui & Simon D Smith. (2014) Rethinking construction cost overruns: cognition, learning and estimation. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction 19:1, pages 38-54.
Crossref
Colette Russell & Joanne Meehan. (2014) Exploring legitimacy in major public procurement projects. Journal of Public Procurement 14:4, pages 495-537.
Crossref
David BaccariniPeter E. D. Love. (2014) Statistical Characteristics of Cost Contingency in Water Infrastructure Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 140:3.
Crossref
Clive Barnett. (2013) Geography and ethics III. Progress in Human Geography 38:1, pages 151-160.
Crossref
Benjamin E. Sharp & Shelie A. Miller. (2014) Estimating maximum land use change potential from a regional biofuel industry. Energy Policy 65, pages 261-269.
Crossref
Fredy Kurniawan, Stephen Ogunlana & Ibrahim Motawa. (2014) Stakeholders’ expectations in utilising financial models for public-private partnership projects. Built Environment Project and Asset Management 4:1, pages 4-21.
Crossref
James Laird, Chris Nash & Peter Mackie. (2014) Transformational transport infrastructure: cost-benefit analysis challenges. Town Planning Review 85:6, pages 709-730.
Crossref
Roger Flanagan. (2014) Whole-life Thinking and Engineering the Future. Frontiers of Engineering Management 1:3, pages 290.
Crossref
Magne Jorgensen. (2014) What We Do and Don't Know about Software Development Effort Estimation. IEEE Software 31:2, pages 37-40.
Crossref
Martin Shepperd. 2014. Software Project Management in a Changing World. Software Project Management in a Changing World 51 71 .
Jonas Eliasson & Mogens Fosgerau. (2013) Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 57, pages 105-113.
Crossref
Matthew M. McConnachie & Richard M. Cowling. (2013) On the accuracy of conservation managers' beliefs and if they learn from evidence-based knowledge: A preliminary investigation. Journal of Environmental Management 128, pages 7-14.
Crossref
Erik Louw, Martijn Leijten & Evert Meijers. (2013) Changes subsequent to infrastructure investments: Forecasts, expectations and ex-post situation. Transport Policy 29, pages 107-117.
Crossref
Homayoun KhamooshiDenis F. Cioffi. (2013) Uncertainty in Task Duration and Cost Estimates: Fusion of Probabilistic Forecasts and Deterministic Scheduling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 139:5, pages 488-497.
Crossref

Displaying 200 of 236 citing articles. Use the download link below to view the full list of citing articles.

Download full citations list

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.