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Original Articles

SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias

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Pages 337-356 | Published online: 22 Sep 2010

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Read on this site (12)

Rüdiger F. Pohl, Ute J. Bayen, Nina Arnold, Tina-Sarah Auer & Claudia Martin. (2018) Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study. Journal of Cognition and Development 19:3, pages 278-300.
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Martin Van Boekel, Keisha Varma & Sashank Varma. (2017) A retrieval-based approach to eliminating hindsight bias. Memory 25:3, pages 377-390.
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DustinP. Calvillo. (2012) Working memory and the memory distortion component of hindsight bias. Memory 20:8, pages 891-898.
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Daniel Hausmann, Damian Läge, RüdigerF. Pohl & Arndt Bröder. (2007) Testing QuickEst: No evidence for the Quick-Estimation heuristic. European Journal of Cognitive Psychology 19:3, pages 446-456.
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Ulrich Hoffrage & Rüdiger Pohl. (2003) Research on hindsight bias: A rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future. Memory 11:4-5, pages 329-335.
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Ralph Hertwig, Carola Fanselow & Ulrich Hoffrage. (2003) Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past. Memory 11:4-5, pages 357-377.
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Lioba Werth & Fritz Strack. (2003) An inferential approach to the knew-it-all-along phenomenon. Memory 11:4-5, pages 411-419.
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Jochen Musch. (2003) Personality differences in hindsight bias. Memory 11:4-5, pages 473-489.
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Hartmut Blank, Volkhard Fischer & Edgar Erdfelder. (2003) Hindsight bias in political elections. Memory 11:4-5, pages 491-504.
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Oliver Hardt & Rüdiger Pohl. (2003) Hindsight bias as a function of anchor distance and anchor plausibility. Memory 11:4-5, pages 379-394.
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Stefan Schwarz & Dagmar Stahlberg. (2003) Strength of hindsight bias as a consequence of meta-cognitions. Memory 11:4-5, pages 395-410.
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Articles from other publishers (49)

Kosuke Kaida, Ikue Mori, Ken Kihara & Naoko Kaida. (2023) The function of REM and NREM sleep on memory distortion and consolidation. Neurobiology of Learning and Memory 204, pages 107811.
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Xiaoming Yu, Wenjun Wu & Yangzhou Wang. (2023) Integrating Cognition Cost With Reliability QoS for Dynamic Workflow Scheduling Using Reinforcement Learning. IEEE Transactions on Services Computing 16:4, pages 2713-2726.
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Karolin Salmen, Florian K. G. Ermark & Klaus Fiedler. (2022) Pragmatic, constructive, and reconstructive memory influences on the hindsight bias. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 30:1, pages 331-340.
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Aglaé Navarre, André Didierjean & Cyril Thomas. (2022) Are the anchoring effect and the Einstellung effect two facets of the same phenomenon?. New Ideas in Psychology 64, pages 100918.
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Haomai Shi, Hanchuan Xu, Xiaofei Xu & Zhongjie Wang. (2021) Service Composition Considering QoS Fluctuations and Anchoring Cost. Service Composition Considering QoS Fluctuations and Anchoring Cost.
Jieying Chen, Lok Ching Kwan, Lok Yeung Ma, Hiu Yee Choi, Ying Ching Lo, Shin Yee Au, Chi Ho Tsang, Bo Ley Cheng & Gilad Feldman. (2021) Retrospective and prospective hindsight bias: Replications and extensions of Fischhoff (1975) and Slovic and Fischhoff (1977). Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 96, pages 104154.
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Vincent Wayne Mitchell & George Balabanis. (2021) The role of brand strength, type, image and product-category fit in retail brand collaborations. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 60, pages 102445.
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Mauro Bertolotti & Patrizia Catellani. (2021) Hindsight Bias and Electoral Outcomes: Satisfaction Counts More Than Winner-Loser Status. Social Cognition 39:2, pages 201-224.
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Marie L. Ivanco & Christopher A. Jones. (2020) Assessing the Science Benefit of Space Mission Concepts in the Formulation Phase. Assessing the Science Benefit of Space Mission Concepts in the Formulation Phase.
Lioba Werth, Markus Denzler & Jennifer MayerLioba Werth, Markus Denzler & Jennifer Mayer. 2020. Sozialpsychologie – Das Individuum im sozialen Kontext. Sozialpsychologie – Das Individuum im sozialen Kontext 55 91 .
Yin-Hua Chen, Hsu-Po Cheng, Yu-Wen Lu, Pei-Hong Lee, Georg Northoff & Nai-Shing Yen. (2019) Can knowledge of election results change recall of our predictions? Neural correlates of political hindsight bias. PLOS ONE 14:10, pages e0220690.
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Daniel M. Bernstein, Ragav Kumar, Michael E. J. Masson & Daniel J. Levitin. (2018) Fluency misattribution and auditory hindsight bias. Memory & Cognition 46:8, pages 1331-1343.
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Julia Groß, Hartmut Blank & Ute J. Bayen. (2017) Hindsight Bias in Depression. Clinical Psychological Science 5:5, pages 771-788.
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Susan A.J. Birch, Patricia E. Brosseau-Liard, Taeh Haddock & Siba E. Ghrear. (2017) A ?curse of knowledge? in the absence of knowledge? People misattribute fluency when judging how common knowledge is among their peers. Cognition 166, pages 447-458.
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Ina von der Beck, Aileen Oeberst, Ulrike Cress & Steffen Nestler. (2017) Cultural Interpretations of Global Information? Hindsight Bias after Reading Wikipedia Articles across Cultures. Applied Cognitive Psychology 31:3, pages 315-325.
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Nadine Fleischhut, Björn Meder & Gerd Gigerenzer. (2017) Moral Hindsight. Experimental Psychology 64:2, pages 110-123.
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Christian Boris Brunner, Sebastian Ullrich, Patrik Jungen & Franz-Rudolf Esch. (2016) Impact of symbolic product design on brand evaluations. Journal of Product & Brand Management 25:3, pages 307-320.
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Alisha Coolin, Edgar Erdfelder, Daniel M. Bernstein, Allen E. Thornton & Wendy Loken Thornton. (2014) Explaining individual differences in cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 22:2, pages 328-348.
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Nakeung Lee. (2013) Judgment of Likelihood of Risky Events and Hindsight Bias: The effects of expectation-outcome inconsistency in hypothetical design. Ewha Journal of Social Sciences 29:null, pages 363-382.
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Karim Nader, Oliver Hardt, Einar Örn Einarsson & Peter S.B. Finnie. 2013. Memory Reconsolidation. Memory Reconsolidation 15 41 .
Daw-An Wu, Shinsuke Shimojo, Stephanie W. Wang & Colin F. Camerer. (2012) Shared Visual Attention Reduces Hindsight Bias. Psychological Science 23:12, pages 1524-1533.
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Neal J. Roese & Kathleen D. Vohs. (2012) Hindsight Bias. Perspectives on Psychological Science 7:5, pages 411-426.
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Guido Palazzo, Franciska Krings & Ulrich Hoffrage. (2011) Ethical Blindness. Journal of Business Ethics 109:3, pages 323-338.
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Kristóf Madarász. (2012) Information Projection: Model and Applications. The Review of Economic Studies 79:3, pages 961-985.
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Melissa A. Z. Marks & Hal R. Arkes. (2010) The effects of mental contamination on the hindsight bias: Source confusion determines success in disregarding knowledge. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23:2, pages 131-160.
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Oliver HardtEinar Örn EinarssonKarim Nader. (2010) A Bridge Over Troubled Water: Reconsolidation as a Link Between Cognitive and Neuroscientific Memory Research Traditions. Annual Review of Psychology 61:1, pages 141-167.
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Franz‐Rudolf Esch, Bernd H. Schmitt, Joern Redler & Tobias Langner. (2009) The brand anchoring effect: A judgment bias resulting from brand awareness and temporary accessibility. Psychology & Marketing 26:4, pages 383-395.
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Mandeep K. Dhami & Henrik Olsson. (2023) Evolution of the interpersonal conflict paradigm. Judgment and Decision Making 3:7, pages 547-569.
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Hartmut Blank, Steffen Nestler, Gernot von Collani & Volkhard Fischer. (2008) How many hindsight biases are there?. Cognition 106:3, pages 1408-1440.
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Steffen Nestler, Hartmut Blank & Gernot von Collani. (2008) Hindsight Bias and Causal Attribution. Social Psychology 39:3, pages 182-188.
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Steffen Nestler & Gernot von Collani. (2008) Hindsight Bias and the Activation of Counterfactual Mind-Sets. Experimental Psychology 55:5, pages 342-349.
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Lynn Nadel, Almut Hupbach, Oliver Hardt & Rebecca Gomez. 2008. Handbook of Episodic Memory. Handbook of Episodic Memory 43 56 .
Daniel M. Bernstein, Cristina Atance, Andrew N. Meltzoff & Geoffrey R. Loftus. (2007) Hindsight Bias and Developing Theories of Mind. Child Development 78:4, pages 1374-1394.
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Susan A. J. Birch & Daniel M. Bernstein. (2007) What Can Children Tell Us About Hindsight Bias: A Fundamental Constraint on Perspective–Taking?. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 98-113.
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Ute J. Bayen, Rüdiger F. Pohl, Edgar Erdfelder & Tina–Sarah Auer. (2007) Hindsight Bias Across the Life Span. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 83-97.
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Giuliana Mazzoni & Manila Vannucci. (2007) Hindsight Bias, the Misinformation Effect, and False Autobiographical Memories. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 203-220.
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Lawrence J. Sanna & Norbert Schwarz. (2007) Metacognitive Experiences and Hindsight Bias: It's Not Just the Thought (Content) That Counts!. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 185-202.
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Patrick A. Müller & Dagmar Stahlberg. (2007) The Role of Surprise in Hindsight Bias: A Metacognitive Model of Reduced and Reversed Hindsight Bias. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 165-184.
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Rüdiger F. Pohl. (2007) Ways to Assess Hindsight Bias. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 14-31.
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Hartmut Blank & Steffen Nestler. (2007) Cognitive Process Models of Hindsight Bias. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 132-146.
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Edgar Erdfelder, Martin Brandt & Arndt Bröder. (2007) Recollection Biases in Hindsight Judgments. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 114-131.
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Hartmut Blank, Jochen Musch & Rüdiger F. Pohl. (2007) Hindsight Bias: On Being Wise After the Event. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 1-9.
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Hartmut Blank & Steffen Nestler. (2006) Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics. British Journal of Social Psychology 45:1, pages 149-160.
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Ute J. Bayen, Edgar Erdfelder, J. Neil Bearden & Jeffrey P. Lozito. (2006) The interplay of memory and judgment processes in effects of aging on hindsight bias.. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 32:5, pages 1003-1018.
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Rik Pieters, Hans Baumgartner & Richard Bagozzi. (2006) Biased memory for prior decision making: Evidence from a longitudinal field study. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 99:1, pages 34-48.
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Rüdiger Pohl & Irma Haracic. (2005) Der Rückschaufehler bei Kindern und Erwachsenen. Zeitschrift für Entwicklungspsychologie und Pädagogische Psychologie 37:1, pages 46-55.
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Mandeep K. Dhami, Ralph Hertwig & Ulrich Hoffrage. (2004) The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition.. Psychological Bulletin 130:6, pages 959-988.
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Guido Palazzo, Franciska Krings & Ulrich Hoffrage. (2013) Ethical Blindness. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Kristof Madarasz. (2009) Information Projection: Model and Applications. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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