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Original Articles

Risk Assessment: What is Being Predicted by Actuarial Prediction Instruments?

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Pages 179-183 | Published online: 17 Feb 2012

Keep up to date with the latest research on this topic with citation updates for this article.

Read on this site (13)

Claudia Pouls & Inge Jeandarme. (2023) Reliability and Validity of the ARMIDILO-S in Sex Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities. Journal of Mental Health Research in Intellectual Disabilities 16:1, pages 37-53.
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Igor Areh, Fanny Verkampt & Alfred Allan. (2022) Critical review of the use of the Rorschach in European courts. Psychiatry, Psychology and Law 29:2, pages 183-205.
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Charlotte Gould, Tristan McGeorge & Karen Slade. (2018) Suicide Screening Tools for use in Incarcerated Offenders: A Systematic Review. Archives of Suicide Research 22:3, pages 345-364.
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Zoran Vasiljevic, Mats Berglund, Agneta Öjehagen, Peter Höglund & Claes Andersson. (2017) Daily Assessment of Acute Dynamic Risk in Paroled Offenders: Prediction, Predictive Accuracy and Intervention Effect. Psychiatry, Psychology and Law 24:5, pages 715-729.
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Inge Jeandarme, Claudia Pouls, Jan De Laender, T. I. Oei & Stefan Bogaerts. (2017) Field validity of the HCR-20 in forensic medium security units in Flanders. Psychology, Crime & Law 23:4, pages 305-322.
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Evy Frantzsen. (2012) Indefinitely Sentenced to Denmark—The Return to Greenland. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention 13:sup1, pages 57-68.
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EdL. B. Hilterman, MartienW. G. Philipse & Nan Dirk de Graaf. (2011) Assessment of Offending During Leave: Development of the Leave Risk Assessment in a Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health 10:3, pages 233-243.
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Lydia Pomp, Marinus Spreen, Stefan Bogaerts & Beate Völker. (2010) The Role of Personal Social Networks in Risk Assessment and Management of Forensic Psychiatric Patients. Journal of Forensic Psychology Practice 10:4, pages 267-284.
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YvonneH. A. Bouman, AartH. Schene & Corine de Ruiter. (2009) Subjective Well-Being and Recidivism in Forensic Psychiatric Outpatients. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health 8:4, pages 225-234.
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Michael Proeve, Andrew Day, Philip Mohr & Katherine Hawkins. (2006) Specific Risk Assessment Based on Victim Type in Child Sexual Offenders. Psychiatry, Psychology and Law 13:1, pages 28-40.
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Alfred Allan, Deborah Dawson & Maria M. Allan. (2006) Prediction of the risk of male sexual reoffending in Australia. Australian Psychologist 41:1, pages 60-68.
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Knut Sturidsson, Ulrika Haggård-Grann, Malin Lotterberg, Mats Dernevik & Martin Grann. (2004) Clinicians' Perceptions of Which Factors Increase or Decrease the Risk of Violence Among Forensic Out-patients. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health 3:1, pages 23-36.
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YongJei Lee, SooHyun O & John E. Eck. (2023) Improving Recidivism Forecasting With a Relaxed Naïve Bayes Classifier. Crime & Delinquency.
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Iris Frowijn, Erik Masthoff & Stefan Bogaerts. (2023) Predictive validity on clinical item-level of the HKT-R divided into clinical patient classes. BMC Psychiatry 23:1.
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Marija Janković, Geert Van Boxtel & Stefan Bogaerts. (2022) Violent Recidivism and Adverse Childhood Experiences in Forensic Psychiatric Patients With Impaired Intellectual Functioning. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, pages 0306624X2211330.
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Krisztián Ivaskevics & József Haller. (2022) Risk Matrix for Violent Radicalization: A Machine Learning Approach. Frontiers in Psychology 13.
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William H. Menton. (2020) Development and Initial Validation of Differential Diagnostic Indices for the MMPI-2-RF. Assessment 29:3, pages 410-424.
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Claudia Pouls & Inge Jeandarme. (2021) Reliability and validity of the Static-99R in sex offenders with intellectual disabilities. Journal of Intellectual Disabilities and Offending Behaviour 13:1, pages 20-31.
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Adrian P. Mundt & Sabine Delhey. 2022. Comprehensive Clinical Psychology. Comprehensive Clinical Psychology 165 187 .
Christian Baudin, Thomas Nilsson, Joakim Sturup, Märta Wallinius & Peter Andiné. (2021) A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses. Frontiers in Psychology 12.
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Susanne Bengtson, Jens Lund, Michael Ibsen & Niklas Långström. (2019) Long-Term Violent Reoffending Following Forensic Psychiatric Treatment: Comparing Forensic Psychiatric Examinees and General Offender Controls. Frontiers in Psychiatry 10.
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Mengjie Jin, Wenming Shi, K.-C. Lin & Kevin X. Li. (2019) Marine piracy prediction and prevention: Policy implications. Marine Policy 108, pages 103528.
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Carl Delfin, Hedvig Krona, Peter Andiné, Erik Ryding, Märta Wallinius & Björn Hofvander. (2019) Prediction of recidivism in a long-term follow-up of forensic psychiatric patients: Incremental effects of neuroimaging data. PLOS ONE 14:5, pages e0217127.
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Milena Abbiati, Julie Palix, Jacques Gasser & Valérie Moulin. (2019) Predicting physically violent misconduct in prison: A comparison of four risk assessment instruments. Behavioral Sciences & the Law 37:1, pages 61-77.
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Rik Peeters & Marc Schuilenburg. (2018) Machine justice: Governing security through the bureaucracy of algorithms. Information Polity 23:3, pages 267-280.
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Stefan Bogaerts, Marinus Spreen, Paul ter Horst & Coby Gerlsma. (2017) Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 62:8, pages 2259-2270.
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Patrick Callaghan & Andrew Grundy. (2018) Violence risk assessment and management in mental health: a conceptual, empirical and practice critique. The Journal of Mental Health Training, Education and Practice 13:1, pages 3-13.
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Stephanie Cuccaro-Alamin, Regan Foust, Rhema Vaithianathan & Emily Putnam-Hornstein. (2017) Risk assessment and decision making in child protective services: Predictive risk modeling in context. Children and Youth Services Review 79, pages 291-298.
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Milena Abbiati, Agathe Azzola, Julie Palix, Jacques Gasser & Valerie Moulin. (2016) Validity and Predictive Accuracy of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk in Criminal Forensic Evaluations. Criminal Justice and Behavior 44:4, pages 493-510.
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Jeffrey C. Singer, Martin Rettenberger & Douglas P. Boer. 2016. The Wiley Handbook on the Theories, Assessment and Treatment of Sexual Offending. The Wiley Handbook on the Theories, Assessment and Treatment of Sexual Offending 695 713 .
R C Kessler, H M van Loo, K J Wardenaar, R M Bossarte, L A Brenner, T Cai, D D Ebert, I Hwang, J Li, P de Jonge, A A Nierenberg, M V Petukhova, A J Rosellini, N A Sampson, R A Schoevers, M A Wilcox & A M Zaslavsky. (2016) Testing a machine-learning algorithm to predict the persistence and severity of major depressive disorder from baseline self-reports. Molecular Psychiatry 21:10, pages 1366-1371.
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Larissa M. Hoogsteder, Joan E. van Horn, Geert Jan J. M. Stams, Inge B. Wissink & Jan Hendriks. (2014) The Relationship Between the Level of Program Integrity and Pre- and Post-Test Changes of Responsive–Aggression Regulation Therapy (Re-ART) Outpatient. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 60:4, pages 435-455.
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Christy A. Mulligan, Justin Ayoub & Callen E. KostelnikChristy A. Mulligan, Justin Ayoub & Callen E. Kostelnik. 2016. Sexually Harmful Youth. Sexually Harmful Youth 31 42 .
Josef Rechenmacher, Gerhard Müller, Christoph Abderhalden & Eva Schulc. (2014) The Diagnostic Efficiency of the Extended German Brøset Violence Checklist to Assess the Risk of Violence. Journal of Nursing Measurement 22:2, pages 201-212.
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Jay P. Singh, Martin Grann & Seena Fazel. (2013) Authorship Bias in Violence Risk Assessment? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. PLoS ONE 8:9, pages e72484.
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Jay P. Singh, Sarah L. DesmaraisRichard A. Van Dorn. (2013) Measurement of Predictive Validity in Violence Risk Assessment Studies: A Second-Order Systematic Review. Behavioral Sciences & the Law 31:1, pages 55-73.
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Jay P. Singh. (2013) Predictive Validity Performance Indicators in Violence Risk Assessment: A Methodological Primer. Behavioral Sciences & the Law 31:1, pages 8-22.
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Geneviève Parent, Jean-Pierre Guay & Raymond A. Knight. (2012) Can We Do Better?. Criminal Justice and Behavior 39:12, pages 1647-1667.
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Jay P. Singh, Martin Grann, Paul Lichtenstein, Niklas Långström & Seena Fazel. (2012) A Novel Approach to Determining Violence Risk in Schizophrenia: Developing a Stepped Strategy in 13,806 Discharged Patients. PLoS ONE 7:2, pages e31727.
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Monique Tardif, Robert Quenneville, Martine Jacob & Nathalie Auclair. 2012. La délinquance sexuelle des mineurs. La délinquance sexuelle des mineurs 59 133 .
Jay P. Singh. 2012. Handbook of Juvenile Forensic Psychology and Psychiatry. Handbook of Juvenile Forensic Psychology and Psychiatry 215 225 .
Yuan Y. Liu, Min Yang, Malcolm Ramsay, Xiao S. Li & Jeremy W. Coid. (2011) A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Classification and Regression Tree, and Neural Networks Models in Predicting Violent Re-Offending. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 27:4, pages 547-573.
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Joakim Sturup, Marianne Kristiansson & Per Lindqvist. (2011) Violent behaviour by general psychiatric patients in Sweden – validation of Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) software. Psychiatry Research 188:1, pages 161-165.
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Peer Briken, Andreas Hill & Wolfgang Berner. 2011. International Perspectives on the Assessment and Treatment of Sexual Offenders. International Perspectives on the Assessment and Treatment of Sexual Offenders 419 431 .
Jay P. Singh, Martin Grann & Seena Fazel. (2011) A comparative study of violence risk assessment tools: A systematic review and metaregression analysis of 68 studies involving 25,980 participants. Clinical Psychology Review 31:3, pages 499-513.
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Phil Rich. 2011. Understanding, Assessing, and Rehabilitating Juvenile Sexual Offenders. Understanding, Assessing, and Rehabilitating Juvenile Sexual Offenders 443 465 .
Geneviève ParentJean-Pierre Guay & Raymond A. Knight. (2010) An Assessment of Long-Term Risk of Recidivism By Adult Sex Offenders: One Size Doesn’t fIt All. Criminal Justice and Behavior 38:2, pages 188-209.
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Thibault Charton, Jean-François Couture-Poulin & Jean-Pierre Guay. (2011) L’évaluation de la validité prédictive du LS/CMI dans la prédiction des incidents disciplinaires en prison. Criminologie 44:2, pages 279-303.
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Natalie Durbeej, Anne H. Berman, Clara H. Gumpert, Tom Palmstierna, Marianne Kristiansson & Charlotte Alm. (2010) Validation of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test in a Swedish sample of suspected offenders with signs of mental health problems: Results from the Mental Disorder, Substance Abuse and Crime study. Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment 39:4, pages 364-377.
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Patrick LussierNadine Deslauriers-Varin & Tricia Râtel. (2008) A Descriptive Profile of High-Risk Sex Offenders Under Intensive Supervision in the Province of British Columbia, Canada. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 54:1, pages 71-91.
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G. Parent, J.-P. Guay & R.A. Knight. (2009) La contribution des arbres de classification et de régression dans la prédiction de la récidive chez les délinquants sexuels adultes. European Review of Applied Psychology 59:4, pages 265-277.
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Victor van der Geest, Arjan Blokland & Catrien Bijleveld. (2009) Delinquent Development in a Sample of High-Risk Youth. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 46:2, pages 111-143.
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Leam A. Craig, Anthony R. Beech & Leigh Harkins. 2009. Assessment and Treatment of Sex Offenders. Assessment and Treatment of Sex Offenders 53 74 .
Glenn D. WaltersRaymond A. Knight & David Thornton. (2008) The Latent Structure of Sexual Violence Risk. Criminal Justice and Behavior 36:3, pages 290-306.
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Geneviève Parent, Jean-Pierre Guay & Raymond A. Knight. (2009) Évaluation de la validité prédictive de neuf instruments chez les agresseurs sexuels adultes. Criminologie 42:2, pages 223-247.
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Leam A. Craig, Kevin D. Browne, Ian Stringer & Todd E. Hogue. (2008) Sexual reconviction rates in the United Kingdom and actuarial risk estimates. Child Abuse & Neglect 32:1, pages 121-138.
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Roger Almvik, Phil Woods & Kirsten Rasmussen. (2007) Assessing risk for imminent violence in the elderly: the Brøset Violence Checklist. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry 22:9, pages 862-867.
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Ulrika Haggård‐Grann. (2011) Assessing Violence Risk: A Review and Clinical Recommendations. Journal of Counseling & Development 85:3, pages 294-301.
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Susanne BengtsonNiklas LÅngström. (2016) Unguided Clinical and Actuarial Assessment of Re-offending Risk: A Direct Comparison with Sex Offenders in Denmark. Sexual Abuse 19:2, pages 135-153.
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Calvin M. Langton, Howard E. Barbaree, Michael C. Seto, Edward J. Peacock, Leigh Harkins & Kevin T. Hansen. (2016) Actuarial Assessment of Risk for Reoffense Among Adult Sex Offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior 34:1, pages 37-59.
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Martin GrannNiklas Långström. (2016) Actuarial Assessment of Violence Risk. Criminal Justice and Behavior 34:1, pages 22-36.
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J. Dietiker, V. Dittmann & M. Graf. (2007) Gutachterliche Risikoeinschätzung bei SexualstraftäternRisk assessment of sex offenders in a German-speaking sample. Der Nervenarzt 78:1, pages 53-61.
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John Matthew Fabian. (2016) A Literature Review of the Utility of Selected Violence and Sexual Violence Risk Assessment Instruments. The Journal of Psychiatry & Law 34:3, pages 307-350.
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Daniel A. Krauss. (2006) Evaluating science outside the trial box: Applying Daubert to the Federal Sentencing Guidelines’ criminal history score. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry 29:4, pages 289-305.
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Rebecca Mandeville-Norden & Anthony R. Beech. (2006) Risk assessment of sex offenders: the current position in the UK. Child Abuse Review 15:4, pages 257-272.
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Richard Wollert. (2006) Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarials are used to identify sexually violent predators: An application of Bayes's theorem.. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law 12:1, pages 56-85.
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D.A. Louw, C.C. Strydom & K.G.F. Esterhuyse. (2016) Prediction of violent behaviour. Criminal Justice 5:4, pages 379-406.
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Martin Grann, Knut Sturidsson, Ulrika Haggård-Grann, Ulrika L. Hiscoke, Per-Olof Alm, Mats Dernevik, Clara Gumpert, Johan Hallqvist, Tommy Hallquist, Gunnar Kullgren, Niklas Långström, Malin Lotterberg, Kristina Nordström, Birgitta Ståhle & Anni Woodhouse. (2005) Methodological development: Structured outcome assessment and community risk monitoring (SORM). International Journal of Law and Psychiatry 28:4, pages 442-456.
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Linda Davey, Andrew Day & Kevin Howells. (2005) Anger, over-control and serious violent offending. Aggression and Violent Behavior 10:5, pages 624-635.
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Daniel A. Krauss. (2004) Adjusting risk of recidivism: do judicial departures worsen or improve recidivism prediction under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines?. Behavioral Sciences & the Law 22:6, pages 731-750.
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P. Randall Kropp. (2016) Some Questions Regarding Spousal Assault Risk Assessment. Violence Against Women 10:6, pages 676-697.
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James R. WorlingNiklas Långström. (2016) Assessment of Criminal Recidivism Risk with Adolescents who have Offended Sexually. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse 4:4, pages 341-362.
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