Explaining change in independence–unification views in Taiwan: a within-between model

ABSTRACT

Independence–unification (IU) views have been profoundly influential in Taiwan politics. This study uses the rally ‘round the flag effect to explain the increase in support for Taiwan independence after President Tsai Ing-wen rejected China's ‘one country, two systems' proposal. Taking advantage of within-individual differences in panel data, we can estimate the probability of IU views given a set of certain characteristics compared with other values of those characteristics and ascertain the influence of change in variables such as approval of the president's handling cross-Strait relations at different time points. Our preliminary results show that Taiwanese people indeed change their IU views due to the external and domestic environment. People who perceive that the economy has improved and whose views on President Tsai have become more favorable tend to flock towards the independence side. People whose views of President Tsai’s handling of cross-Strait relations have become more favorable also move towards independence. If we only consider differences between individuals, feelings about the KMT and DPP stand out as significant predictors of IU views.

KEYWORDS:

• Independence-unification issue position
• panel data
• within-between regression model
• partisanship

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 The Media Agency Association is made up of Taiwan-based advertising companies. It publishes a report on the advertising and media market every year. Please see the website for more details. https://maataipei.org.

2 We compiled data points from a series of telephone and mobile phone interviews on presidential satisfaction, part of Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), 2016–2020 (III). The coordinator of multi-year project TEDS is Professor Chi Huang (National Chengchi University). More information is available on the TEDS website (http://teds.nccu.edu.tw/). The authors appreciate the assistance in providing data by the institute and individuals aforementioned. The authors are alone responsible for views expressed herein.

3 The DPP had won every Kaohsiung mayoral election since 1998. In 2014, the DPP mayor, Chen Chu, was re-elected with 68 percent of the vote.

4 The KMT’s post-election review indicated that the “sense of the nation’s impending doom” was the top reason why the KMT lost to the DPP. See http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/01/16/2003729327.

5 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3862410.

6 γ2 in Equation 9 models the difference between the within and between effects, that is, γ2 = β2 − β2 (Berlin, Kimmel, Ten Have, & Sammel, 1999).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Chia-hung Tsai

Chia-hung Tsai is Research Fellow at the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University and Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research. He holds a joint appointment with Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies. His fields of specialization include public opinion, methodology, and comparative politics.

Tsung-han Tsai

Tsung-han Tsai is a professor at the Department of Political Science and a research fellow at the Election Study Center and the Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan R.O.C. His research interests include quantitative methodology, comparative political institutions, and survey research. His works have been published in Political Analysis, Political Science Research and Methods, Political Studies Review, among other academic journals.