Michael Cohen, Senior Lecturer, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

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Notes

1 Keir Lieber and Daryl Press, The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution: Power Politics in the Atomic Age (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2020).

2 Michael Cohen, When Proliferation Causes Peace: The Psychology of Nuclear Crises (Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2017); Mark Bell, Nuclear Reactions: How Nuclear Armed States Behave (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2021).

3 Andrew Kennedy, The International Ambitions of Mao and Nehru: National Efficacy Beliefs and the Making of Foreign Policy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011).

4 Jordan Kyle and Brett Meyer, “High Tide? Populism in Power 1990–2020,” Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, February 7, 2020, <https://institute.global/sites/default/files/2020-02/High%20Tide%20Populism%20in%20Power%201990-2020.pdf>.

5 James Fearon, “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 88, No. 3 (1994), pp. 577–592; Jessica Weeks, “Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signalling Resolve,” International Organization, Vol. 62, No. 1 (2008), pp. 35–64; Jack Snyder and Erica Borghard, “The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny, Not a Pound,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, No. 3 (2011), pp. 437–456; Marc Trachtenberg, “Audience Costs: An Historical Analysis,” Security Studies, Vol. 21, No. 1 (2012), pp. 3–42.

6 For an example of a psychological bias that influences national-security decision making, see Michael Cohen, “Live and Learn: Availability Biases and Beliefs about Military Power,” Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 13, No. 4 (2017), pp. 968–995.

7 Roseanne McManus, “Revisiting the Madman Theory: Evaluating the Impact of Different Forms of Perceived Madness in Coercive Bargaining,” Security Studies, Vol. 28, No. 5 (2019), pp. 976–1009.

8 Todd Hall and Keren Yarhi-Milo, “The Personal Touch: Leaders’ Impressions, Costly Signaling, and Assessments of Sincerity in International Affairs,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 3 (2012), pp. 560–573; Keren Yarhi-Milo, “Tying Hands Behind Closed Doors: The Logic and Practice of Secret Reassurance,” Security Studies, Vol. 22, No. 13 (2013), pp. 405–435.