Recent Trends in Formal School Exclusions in Wales

Figures & data

Figure 1. Rates of permanent exclusions in England, Wales, and Scotland 2006/07 to 2020/21¹

¹Figures for Northern Ireland are not available due to data suppression (low numbers)

[Data sources: Wales: https://gov.wales/permanent-and-fixed-term-exclusions-schools; England: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-exclusions; Scotland: https://www.gov.scot/publications/school-exclusion-statistics/]

Figure 2. Rates of temporary exclusions in England, Wales, Scotland,¹ and Northern Ireland,² 2006/07 to 2020/21

¹Data only collected every two years in Scotland from 2010/11

²Data not available for Northern Ireland until 2011/12

[Data sources: Wales: https://gov.wales/permanent-and-fixed-term-exclusions-schools; England: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-exclusions; Scotland: https://www.gov.scot/publications/school-exclusion-statistics/; Northern Ireland: https://www.education-ni.gov.uk/articles/pupil-suspensions-and-expulsions]

Figure 3. Average rate of school exclusions by local authority in Wales

[Source: Tseliou (2021)]

Figure 4. Number of excluded pupils in each academic year over time

Figure 5. Percentage of pupils excluded each year

Figure 6. Total and average number of days lost due to exclusion in each academic year

Figure 7. Total and average number of exclusion instances in each academic year

Figure 8. Average number of exclusion instances per cohort pupil by age

Table 1. Number (and percentages) of pupils ever excluded between year 6 and year 11 by characteristics

		Total cohort	Excluded pupils
Gender	Female	13,002 (48.0)	797 (29.8)
	Male	14,083 (52.0)	1,879 (70.2)
Ethnicity	White British	23,785 (87.8)	2,460 (91.9)
	White Other	1,156 (4.3)	91 (3.4)
	Asian	708 (2.6)	37 (1.4)
	Black	269 (1.0)	26 (1.0)
	Mixed/Other	1,167 (4.3)	62 (2.3)
FSM status	No FSM	18,826 (69.5)	1,062 (39.7)
	FSM once	1,456 (5.4)	155 (5.8)
	FSM multiple	4,595 (17.0)	882 (33.0)
	FSM constant	2,208 (8.2)	577 (21.5)
SEN type	No SEN	19,212 (70.9)	1,332 (49.8)
	Behaviour & mental health	677 (2.5)	238 (8.9)
	Cognition & learning	5,308 (19.6)	858 (32.1)
	Communication	1,186 (4.4)	173 (6.4)
	Sensory & physical	702 (2.6)	75 (2.8)
Comorbid SEN	No SEN	19,212 (70.9)	1,332 (49.8)
	1 SEN	5,823 (21.5)	813 (30.4)
	Multiple SEN	2,050 (7.6)	531 (19.8)
SEN provision	No provision	14,564 (53.8)	607 (22.7)
	School Action	5,974 (22.1)	679 (25.4)
	School Action Plus	5,458 (20.1)	1,192 (44.5)
	SEN Statement	1,089 (4.0)	198 (7.4)
Persistent absence	No	21,678 (80.0)	1,466 (54.8)
	1–2 years	3,808 (14.1)	798 (29.8)
	3+ years	1,599 (5.9)	412 (15.4)
Medium type	English	20,330 (75.0)	2,195 (82.0)
	Welsh	5,325 (19.7)	429 (16.1)
	Other	1,430 (5.3)	52 (1.9)
School religion	No faith	21,736 (80.3)	2,166 (80.9)
	Faith school	5,349 (19.7)	510 (19.1)
Regional consortia	North Wales	6,377 (23.5)	647 (24.2)
	West Wales	7,713 (28.5)	621 (23.2)
	Central South Wales	8,120 (30.0)	884 (33.0)
	Southeast Wales	4,875 (18.0)	524 (19.6)

Table 2. Logistic regression models using ever excluded as outcome (odds ratios with 95%CI)

		Univariate	Multivariate
Gender	Female	1.00	1.00
	Male	2.36 (2.16–2.57)	2.15 (1.96–2.37)
Ethnicity	White British	1.00	1.00
	White Other	0.74 (0.60–0.92)	0.72 (0.57–0.91)
	Asian	0.48 (0.34–0.67)	0.56 (0.39–0.79)
	Black	0.93 (0.62–1.39)	0.89 (0.57–1.38)
	Mixed/Other	0.49 (0.38–0.63)	0.56 (0.42–0.73)
FSM status	No FSM	1.00	1.00
	FSM once	1.99 (1.67–2.38)	1.62 (1.34–1.95)
	FSM multiple	3.97 (3.61–4.37)	2.32 (2.08–2.58)
	FSM constant	5.92 (5.28–6.63)	2.82 (2.47–3.21)
SEN type	No SEN	1.00	1.00
	Behaviour & mental health	7.28 (6.16–8.60)	4.86 (3.82–6.18)
	Cognition & learning	2.59 (2.36–2.84)	1.84 (1.57–2.16)
	Communication	2.29 (1.93–2.72)	1.02 (0.83–1.24)
	Sensory & physical	1.61 (1.26–2.05)	0.67 (0.51–0.88)
Comorbid SEN	No SEN	1.00	1.00
	1 SEN	2.18 (2.00–2.39)	0.45 (0.38–6.18)
	Multiple SEN	4.69 (4.19–5.26)	Suppressed
SEN provision	No provision	1.00	1.00
	School Action	2.95 (2.63–3.30)	2.19 (1.91–2.51)
	School Action Plus	6.42 (5.79–7.13)	3.54 (3.11–4.04)
	SEN Statement	5.11 (4.29–6.08)	2.33 (1.90–2.87)
Persistent absence	No	1.00	1.00
	1–2 years	3.66 (3.32–4.01)	2.22 (2.00–2.47)
	3+ years	4.79 (4.23–5.42)	2.22 (1.92–2.55)
Medium type	English	1.00	1.00
	Welsh	0.72 (0.65–0.81)	0.81 (0.72–0.92)
	Other	0.31 (0.24–0.41)	0.59 (0.44–0.79)
School religion	No faith	1.00	1.00
	Faith school	0.95 (0.86–1.05)	0.97 (0.87–1.09)
Regional consortia	North Wales	1.00	1.00
	West Wales	0.78 (0.69–0.87)	0.63 (0.56–0.72)
	Central South Wales	1.08 (0.97–1.20)	0.90 (0.80–1.01)
	Southeast Wales	1.07 (0.94–1.20)	0.84 (0.73–0.96)

Table 3. Multivariate multinomial regression models for school exclusion trajectory groups (reference group for analysis pupils with no exclusion) (odds Ratios)¹

		Excluded in KS2 & KS3	Excluded in KS4	Excluded in KS2 & KS3 & KS4
Gender	Female	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Male	2.25 (1.94–2.61)	1.93 (1.67–2.20)	2.61 (2.16–3.16)
Ethnicity^2	White British	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Non-White British	0.79 (0.60–1.05)	0.43 (0.31–0.62)	0.58 (0.39–0.89)
FSM status	No FSM	1.00	1.00	1.00
	FSM once	1.78 (1.33–2.39)	1.51 (1.5–1.97)	1.88 (1.28–2.74)
	FSM multiple	2.57 (2.17–3.04)	2.03 (1.72–2.36)	2.99 (2.42–3.70)
	FSM constant	3.21 (2.63–3.790)	2.52 (2.08–3.06)	3.74 (2.93–4.75)
SEN type	No SEN	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Behaviour & MH	2.72 (2.10–3.52)	2.29 (1.90–2.77)	2.58 (1.89–3.53)
	Cognition & learning	1.00 (0.84–1.9)	0.97 (0.82–1.15)	1.15 (0.93–1.42)
	Comm & interaction	0.76 (0.57–1.02)	0.68 (0.50–0.93)	0.76 (0.54–1.07)
	Sensory & physical	0.55 (0.37–0.81)	0.58 (0.38–0.87)	Suppressed
SEN provision	No provision	1.00	1.00	1.00
	School Action	2.10 (1.68–2.64)	2.29 (1.90–2.77)	1.81 (1.33–2.45)
	School Action Plus	4.27 (3.45–5.28)	2.94 (2.43–3.57)	5.32 (4.05–6.99)
	SEN Statement	4.24 (3.17–5.77)	1.16 (0.80–1.70)	3.64 (2.50–5.32)
Persistent absence	No	1.00	1.00	1.00
	1–2 years	2.05 (1.74–241)	2.09 (1.78–2.42)	3.27 (2.69–3.97)
	3+ years	2.29 (1.81–2.74)	1.72 (1.47–2.14)	3.32 (2.60–4.23)
Medium type	English	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Welsh	0.72 (0.60–0.87)	0.89 (0.76–1.04)	0.66 (0.52–0.85)
School religion	No faith	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Faith school	0.89 (0.75–1.07)	0.92 (0.78–1.09)	1.19 (0.91–1.38)
Regional consortia	North Wales	1.00	1.00	1.00
	West Wales	0.89 (0.72–1.10)	0.48 (0.40–0.57)	0.68 (0.53–0.87)
	Central South Wales	1.47 (1.21–1.79)	0.61 (0.51–0.72)	0.85 (0.68–1.08)
	South East Wales	1.08 (0.86–1.36)	0.68 (0.56–0.82)	0.91 (0.74–1.18)

¹SEN comorbidity has been removed from this model because it was not related to exclusions in Table 2.

²Ethnicity has been aggregated into White British and non-White British to maintain anonymity.

Tseliou, F. (2021, June 23) Area level variations of school exclusions across Wales, WISERD Blog. Available at: https://wiserd.ac.uk/blog/area-level-variations-of-school-exclusions-across-wales/ (accessed 25 January 2023).

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7. Data Availability Statement

No new data was created during this study.