Relating Seasonal Hunger and Prevention and Coping Strategies: A Panel Analysis of Malawian Farm Households

Figures & data

Table 1. Summary statistics

	Wave 1		Wave 2
	mean	sd	mean	sd
Age of household head	42.040	(16.012)	42.4 71	(15.777)
Education of household head (years)	7.680	(3.942)	7.824	(4.072)
Male household head	0.780	(0.414)	0.771	(0.421)
Household size	4.798	(2.325)	5.063	(2.362)
HH distance to nearest road (km)	7.559	(8.950)	7.658	(9.289)
July-June total rainfall (mm), current season	787.127	(121.596)	822.693	(89.363)
Acres owned	2.206	(9.823)	3.665	(36.878)
Crop count	1.742	(1.336)	1.941	(1.598)
Used any organic fertiliser	0.172		0.201
Used any inorganic fertiliser	0.801		0.748
Simpson index in previous season (planted acres)	0.337	(0.299)	0.355	(0.295)
Grew off-season or permanent Crop	0.352		0.360
Poultry (count)	3.101	(6.723)	3.065	(14.695)
Other livestock (count)	1.424	(4.179)	1.296	(3.933)
Stored annual or permanent Crop	0.665		0.610
Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received – MK)	3.051	(4.040)	4.284	(4.602)
Household member worked for wage	0.612		0.625
Sold annual or permanent crop	0.076		0.112
Rural household	0.736		0.738
Agricultural household	0.822		0.789
Observations	3227		3980

Figure 1.  Month of household first harvest

Figure 2. Number of months hungry in rural and urban households

Figure 3. Hunger by month in rural and urban households

Table 2. Extent of seasonal and chronic hunger in urban and rural households

	(1)	(2)
	Urban Households	Rural Households
	mean/count	mean/count
Panel A: Seasonal months – January through April
Hunger in seasonal months (indicator)	0.369	0.571
	1892	5310
Hunger in seasonal months (count)	0.747	1.261
	1892	5310
Hunger in seasonal months if no hunger in non-seasonal months (indicator)	0.292	0.432
	1602	3620
Panel B: Non-seasonal months – May through December
Hunger in non-seasonal months (indicator)	0.181	0.293
	1982	5310
Hunger in non-seasonal months (count)	0.330	0.685
	1982	5310
Hunger in non-seasonal months if no hunger in seasonal months (indicator)	0.081	0.064
	1667	2890

Note: Hunger in seasonal months (indicator) is equal to one if the household reported any hunger in January, February, March, or April. Hunger in seasonal months (count) is the total number of months the household reported any hunger during this period. Hunger in seasonal months if no hunger in non-seasonal months (indicator) is equal to one if the household reported any hunger in January, February, March, or April conditional on the household reporting no hunger in any of the other months. Hunger in non-seasonal months variables are defined similarly, but replacing January, February, March, or April with May through December.

Table 3. Seasonal hunger and household and farm characteristics

	Wave 1,Model 1	Wave 1,Model 2	Wave 2,Model 1	Wave 2,Model 2
Age of household head	0.9934*	0.9941	0.9863***	0.9891***
	(0.0038)	(0.0041)	(0.0031)	(0.0035)
Education of household head (years)	0.9238***	0.9177***	0.8881***	0.9054***
	(0.0148)	(0.0157)	(0.0124)	(0.0141)
Male household head	0.7542**	0.8574	0.6235***	0.6027***
	(0.0995)	(0.1180)	(0.0707)	(0.0767)
Household size	1.0971***	1.1043***	1.1124***	1.1040***
	(0.0263)	(0.0288)	(0.0229)	(0.0249)
HH distance to nearest road (km)	1.0156***	1.0126**	1.0146***	1.0106**
	(0.0059)	(0.0063)	(0.0045)	(0.0050)
Total rainfall in reference growing season (mm)	0.9984***	0.9984***	0.9978***	0.9987**
	(0.0004)	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)
Acres owned	0.8177***	0.8228***	1.0000	0.9996
	(0.0315)	(0.0361)	(0.0003)	(0.0002)
Used any organic fertiliser	1.1320	1.0387	1.3085**	1.2516**
	(0.1491)	(0.1473)	(0.1382)	(0.1426)
Used any inorganic fertiliser	0.9818	1.0304	0.7617***	0.6100***
	(0.1456)	(0.1755)	(0.0789)	(0.0691)
Simpson index in previous season (planted acres)		1.6491**		1.6083***
		(0.3253)		(0.2737)
Grew off-season or permanent crop		1.3355**		1.2133*
		(0.1669)		(0.1316)
Poultry (count)		0.9926		0.9994
		(0.0085)		(0.0026)
Other livestock (count)		0.9580**		0.9152***
		(0.0179)		(0.0151)
Stored annual or permanent crop		0.7505*		0.6575***
		(0.1200)		(0.0754)
Remittances and gifts (Kwacha – log+1)		1.0536***		0.9967
		(0.0153)		(0.0112)
Household member worked for wage		1.4992***		1.7105***
		(0.1743)		(0.1773)
Sold annual or permanent crop		0.4625***		1.1102
		(0.1141)		(0.1865)
N	l2052	1804	2589	2199

Notes: The outcome variable is a count from 0–4 of the numbers of months in which the household reported any hunger during the three months prior to harvest, plus the month of first harvest by that household. Coefficients are odds ratios from ordered logit regressions.

Standard errors in parentheses. * p < 0.10 ** p < 0.05 *** p < 0.01

Table 4. Seasonal hunger and household and farm characteristics, EA/wave fixed effects

	EA/Wave fixed effects,Model 1	EA/Wave fixed effects,Model 2
Age of household head	0.9880***	0.9913***
	(0.0026)	(0.0030)
Education of household head (years)	0.9223***	0.9303***
	(0.0120)	(0.0127)
Male household head	0.6241***	0.6791***
	(0.0599)	(0.0724)
Household size	1.1132***	1.1071***
	(0.0202)	(0.0219)
HH distance to nearest road (km)	1.0167	1.0225*
	(0.0122)	(0.0129)
Total rainfall in reference growing season (mm)	0.9998	0.9997
	(0.0016)	(0.0020)
Acres owned	0.9993	0.9990
	(0.0006)	(0.0007)
Used any organic fertiliser	1.1215	1.1164
	(0.1090)	(0.1158)
Used any inorganic fertiliser	0.8599	0.8011*
	(0.0886)	(0.0933)
Simpson index in previous season (planted acres)		1.1843
		(0.1930)
Grew off-season or permanent crop		1.2248*
		(0.1296)
Poultry (count)		0.9949
		(0.0048)
Other livestock (count)		0.9168***
		(0.0145)
Stored annual or permanent crop		0.6951***
		(0.0762)
Remittances and gifts (Kwacha – log+1)		1.0286***
		(0.0111)
Household member worked for wage		1.7620***
		(0.1606)
Sold annual or permanent crop		0.8516
		(0.1315)
N	4641	4003

Notes: The outcome variable is a count from 0–4 of the numbers of months in which the household reported any hunger during the three months prior to harvest, plus the month of first harvest by that household. Coefficients are odds ratios from ordered logit regressions. Regressions include enumeration area/Wave fixed effects. * p < 0.10 ** p < 0.05 *** p < 0.01

Table 5. Effect of seasonal hunger on household month of first harvest

	(1)	(2)
	Month of FirstHarvest – Any Crop	Month of FirstHarvest – Maize
Seasonal hunger (count)	−0.244***	−0.076***
	(0.042)	(0.024)
Household size	−0.046	−0.028
	(0.039)	(0.023)
Male household head	0.124	0.054
	(0.160)	(0.108)
Acres owned	−0.001	−0.000
	(0.001)	(0.001)
Other livestock (count)	−0.028	−0.003
	(0.020)	(0.009)
Poultry (count)	−0.007	−0.001
	(0.007)	(0.003)
Total rainfall in reference growing season (mm)	−0.001	−0.000
	(0.001)	(0.000)
N	4353	4226
R^2	0.655	0.782

Notes: Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the household level. Regressions include household fixed effects. Both regressions are estimated using OLS. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01

Table A1. Effect of seasonal hunger on harvest timing, ordered logit

	(1)	(2)
	Month of FirstHarvest – Any Crop	Month of FirstHarvest – Maize
Seasonal hunger (count)	0.538***	0.667***
	(0.039)	(0.059)
Household size	0.883*	0.870
	(0.058)	(0.077)
Male household head	1.411	1.453
	(0.369)	(0.641)
Acres owned	0.998	0.999
	(0.001)	(0.002)
Other livestock (count)	0.934**	0.985
	(0.031)	(0.028)
Poultry (count)	0.980	0.997
	(0.014)	(0.008)
Total rainfall in reference growing season (mm)	0.999	1.000
	(0.001)	(0.001)
N	4353	4226

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. Results are from ordered logit regressions. Coefficients are exponentiated (odds ratios). * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01