How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?

Figures & data

Table 1 Description of analytic samples (full and balanced): China, 2014 and 2018

	Full sample		Balanced sample
Treatment status (percentage)
Control (one or both only child)	39.85		43.88
Treatment (neither only child)	60.15		56.12
Sex (percentage)
Female	51.71		53.35
Male	48.29		46.65
Ethnicity (percentage)
Non-Han	10.44		10.16
Han	89.56		89.84
Education (percentage)
Less than primary	0.63		0.23
Primary school	3.36		2.31
Middle school	21.04		18.94
High school	26.51		26.33
Tertiary and above	48.46		52.19
Number of person-years	1,757		880
	2014	2018	2014	2018
Ideal number of children	1.81 (0.62)	1.74 (0.76)	1.84 (0.74)	1.72 (0.56)
Ideal number of children (categorical, percentage)
Less than two	23.24	31.99	21.59	29.77
Two	73.87	65.07	75.45	67.27
More than two	2.88	2.94	2.95	2.95
Ideal number of children greater than actual number	0.63 (0.48)	0.41 (0.49)	0.68 (0.47)	0.34 (0.47)
Age	33.38 (4.02)	33.73 (3.79)	30.88 (3.12)	34.88 (3.11)
Age group (percentage)
20–24	1.44	0.47	3.00	0.00
25–29	17.57	16.15	27.71	6.00
30–34	35.77	34.63	56.35	33.95
35–39	45.23	48.76	12.93	60.05
Urban	0.87 (0.34)	0.88 (0.33)	0.84 (0.37)	0.89 (0.31)
Employed	0.86 (0.35)	0.84 (0.36)	0.85 (0.36)	0.85 (0.36)
Household income per capita (log)	9.70 (0.94)	10.30 (0.95)	9.72 (0.86)	10.24 (0.97)
Number of children	1.11 (0.54)	1.26 (0.63)	1.05 (0.51)	1.39 (0.56)
Number of observations	1,110	647	440	440

Notes: Table shows unweighted means and proportions. Standard deviations in parentheses.

Source: Authors’ analysis of CFPS (2014, 2018).

Table 2 Mean ideal family size, proportion desiring two or more children, and proportion desiring more than actual number of children, by year and treatment status, and difference-in-differences estimates: China, 2014 and 2018

	Full sample		Balanced sample
	Treatment	Control	Treatment	Control
(a) Ideal family size
2014	1.859	1.762	1.879	1.781
2018	1.885	1.575	1.867	1.536
Difference	0.026	−0.187	−0.012	−0.245
Difference in differences	0.213** (0.040)		0.233*** (0.031)
(b) Desires two or more children
2014	0.808	0.708	0.831	0.724
2018	0.801	0.509	0.831	0.536
Difference	−0.006	−0.199	0.000	−0.188
Difference in differences	0.193** (0.038)		0.193*** (0.022)
(c) Desires more than actual number
2014	0.624	0.695	0.661	0.703
2018	0.469	0.425	0.339	0.344
Difference	−0.155	−0.270	−0.323	−0.359
Difference in differences	0.115* (0.043)		0.037 (0.044)

*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Notes: All analyses using the full sample are weighted by the CFPS cross-sectional weights to be representative of the population in 2014 and 2018. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered by survey year × own/spouse’s sibship size cells.

Source: As for Table 1.

Figure 1 Difference-in-differences estimates of effects of being eligible to have two children on ideal family size, proportion desiring two or more children, and proportion desiring more than actual number of children, overall and by subgroup: China, 2014 and 2018

Notes: All estimates are based on subsets of the full sample and are weighted by cross-sectional weights. Horizontal lines show 95 per cent confidence intervals.

Source: Authors’ analysis of CFPS (2014, 2018).

Table 3 Estimates of effects of being eligible to have two children on ideal family size, proportion desiring two or more children, and proportion desiring more than actual number of children, using individual fixed-effects models: China, 2014 and 2018

	(a) Ideal family size	(b) Desires two or more children	(c) Desires more than actual number
Eligible to have two children	0.233**	0.187***	0.037
	(0.080)	(0.050)	(0.054)
2018	−1.258***	−0.970***	−1.811***
	(0.331)	(0.200)	(0.202)
Age	0.255***	0.197***	0.362***
	(0.069)	(0.041)	(0.042)
Urban	0.024	0.043	0.054
	(0.150)	(0.129)	(0.130)
Employed	−0.085	−0.085	0.029
	(0.073)	(0.063)	(0.069)
Household income per capita (log)	−0.015	−0.013	0.002
	(0.036)	(0.021)	(0.026)

*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Notes: Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at individual level. Analysis is based on the balanced sample.

Source: As for Table 1.

Figure 2 Fixed-effects model estimates of effects of being eligible to have two children on ideal family size, proportion desiring two or more children, and proportion desiring more than actual number of children, overall and by subgroup: China, 2014 and 2018

Notes: Estimates are based on subsets of the balanced sample. Horizontal lines show 95 per cent confidence intervals. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at individual level.

Source: As for Figure 1.

Table A1 Estimates of effects of being eligible to have two children on ideal family size, proportion desiring two or more children, and proportion desiring more than actual number of children, using individual fixed-effects models on imputed data vs complete cases: China, 2014 and 2018

	(a) Ideal family size		(b) Desires two or more children		(c) Desires more than actual number
	Imputed	Complete	Imputed	Complete	Imputed	Complete
Eligible to have two children	0.223*	0.233**	0.185**	0.187***	0.061	0.037
	(0.088)	(0.080)	(0.054)	(0.050)	(0.052)	(0.054)

*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Notes: All models control for year of survey, age of individual, urban/rural residence, employment status, and household income per capita. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at individual level. Values for ‘Complete’ are replicated from Table 3.

Source: Authors’ analysis of CFPS (2014, 2018).

Table A2 Characteristics of individuals in the full sample and by treatment status: China, 2014

	Control	Treatment	Full sample
Sex (percentage)
Female	48.92	54.11	52.16
Male	51.08	45.89	47.84
Ethnicity (percentage)
Non-Han	7.67	10.69	9.56
Han	92.33	89.31	90.44
Education (percentage)
Less than primary	0.24	1.30	0.90
Primary school	1.92	5.34	4.05
Middle school	16.55	27.13	23.15
High school	24.94	30.16	28.20
Tertiary and above	56.35	36.08	43.69
Number of children in 2014 (categorical, percentage)
Less than two	92.33	75.47	81.80
Two	7.67	22.80	17.12
More than two	0.00	1.73	1.08
Birth cohort
1990–94	1.44	1.44	1.44
1985–89	20.86	15.58	17.57
1980–84	46.04	29.58	35.77
1975–79	31.65	53.39	45.23
Number of observations	417	693	1,110

Source: As for Table A1.

Table A3 Estimates of effects of being eligible to have two children on ideal family size, using individual fixed-effects linear vs Poisson models: China, 2014 and 2018

	Linear	Poisson
Eligible to have two children	0.233** (0.080)	0.142** (0.046)
2018	−1.258*** (0.331)	−0.760*** (0.194)
Age	0.255*** (0.069)	0.154*** (0.040)
Urban	0.024 (0.150)	0.013 (0.086)
Employed	−0.085 (0.073)	−0.052 (0.042)
Household income per capita (log)	−0.015 (0.036)	−0.008 (0.019)

*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Notes: Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at individual level. Values for the linear model are replicated from Table 3.

Source: As for Table A1.

Figure A1 Age-specific fertility rates (per 1,000 women) in China, all births and by birth order, 1 November 2019 to 31 October 2020

Source: 2020 China Population Census.