The Conservative Party Leadership Transition from Theresa May to Boris Johnson: Party Popularity and Leadership Satisfaction

Figures & data

Table 1. Leadership change and party popularity.

	Final opinion poll for incumbent		Change	Three months	Six months	‘Empirical’ impact
1965	Home:	46%	Heath:	41%	42%	−5%	−4%
	[Wilson:	45%		49%	47%	+4%	+2]
1975	Heath:	34%	Thatcher:	43%	43%	+9%	+9%
	[Wilson:	48%		45%	40%	−3%	−8%]
1990	Thatcher:	31%	Major:	43%	39%	+12%	+8%
	[Kinnock:	46%		41%	34%	−5%	−12%]
1997	Major:	23%	Hague:	26%	21%	+3%	−1%
	[Blair:	59%		58%	63%	−1%	+4%]
2001	Hague:	27%	Duncan Smith:	25%	28%	−2%	+1%
	[Blair:	53%		56%	47%	+3%	−6%]
2003	Duncan Smith:	31%	Howard:	31%	35%	–	+4%
	[Blair:	40%		40%	35%	–	−5%]
2005	Howard:	32%	Cameron:	35%	41%	+3%	+9%
	[Blair:	42%		38%	31%	−4%	−11%]
2016	Cameron:	36%	May:	40%	40%	+4%	+4%
	[Corbyn:	35%		34%	29%	−1%	−6%]
2019	May:	25%	Johnson:	44%	47%	+19%	+21%
	[Corbyn	24%		28%	30%	+4	+6%]

Source: King & Wybrow, 2001, p. 9, 12, 17, 19–20; Ipsos-Mori, 2020a, 2020b.

Table 2. Leadership change and leadership satisfaction.

	Final opinion poll for incumbent*		Change	Three months	Six months	‘empirical’impact
1965	Home:	32%	Heath:	49%	43%	+17%	+11%
	[Wilson:	51%		61%	65%	+10%	+14%]
1975	Heath:	29%	Thatcher:	41%	37%	+12%	+8%
	[Wilson:	47%		40%	45%	−7%	−2%]
1990	Thatcher:	29%	Major:	58%	53%	+29%	+24%
	[Kinnock:	47%		41%	36%	−6%	−11%]
1997	Major:	33%	Hague:	39%	24%	+6%	−9%
	[Blair:	82%		83%	74%	+1%	−8%]
2001	Hague:	23%	Duncan Smith:	25%	26%	+2%	+3%
	[Blair:	49%		51%	46%	−2%	−3%]
2003	Duncan Smith:	22%	Howard:	30%	28%	+8%	+6%
	[Blair:	31%		32%	31%	+1%	-%]
2005	Howard:	25%	Cameron:	32%	32%	+7%	+7%
	[Blair:	39%		31%	32%	−8%	−7%]
2016	Cameron:	35%	May:	48%	45%	+13%	+10%
	[Corbyn:	27%		31%	26%	+4%	−1%]
2019	May:	25%	Johnson:	46%	43%	+21%	+18%
	[Corbyn	17%		15%	19%	−2%	+2%]

*Figures represent the percentage of voters expressing satisfaction.

Source: King & Wybrow, 2001, pp. 187–188, 190; 196–197, 205–208; Ipsos-Mori, 2020c; Opinium, 2020.

Table 3. Leadership change and leadership dissatisfaction.

	Final opinion poll for incumbent*		Change	Three months	Six months	‘Empirical’ impact
1965	Home:	46%	Heath:	15%	21%	−31%	−25%
	[Wilson:	35%		29%	25%	−6	−10%]
1975	Heath:	53%	Thatcher:	25%	40%	−28%	−13%
	[Wilson	42%		49%	47%	+7%	+5]
1990	Thatcher:	66%	Major:	21%	32%	−45%	−34%
	[Kinnock:	40%		50%	54%	+10%	+14%]
1997	Major:	60%	Hague:	41%	60%	−19%	–%
	[Blair:	10%		12%	22%	+2%	+12%]
2001	Hague:	54%	Duncan Smith:	22%	31%	−32%	−23%
	[Blair:	43%		39%	46%	−4%	+4%]
2003	Duncan Smith:	49%	Howard:	22%	30%	−27%	−19%
	[Blair:	60%		59%	61%	−1%	+1%]
2005	Howard:	45%	Cameron:	19%	28%	−26%	−17%
	[Blair:	51%		62%	60%	+11%	+9%]
2016	Cameron:	66%	May:	32%	39%	−34%	−27%
	[Corbyn	52%		55%	61%	+3%	+9%]
2019	May:	69%	Johnson:	44%	36%	−25%	−33%
	[Corbyn	75%		75%	59%	−0%	−16%]

*Figures represent the percentage of voters expressing dissatisfaction.

Source: King & Wybrow, 2001, pp. 195–197, 206–208; Ipsos-Mori, 2020c; Opinium, 2020.

King, A., & Wybrow, R. (2001). British political opinion 1937–2000: The gallup polls. London: Politicos.

 Google Scholar

Ipsos-Mori. (2020a). ‘Voting Intentions Great Britain, 1997–2002’. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/voting-intentions-great-britain-1997-2002

 Google Scholar

Ipsos-Mori. (2020b). ‘Voting Intentions Great Britain, 2002-2020’. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/voting-intention-great-britain-recent-trends

 Google Scholar

Ipsos-Mori. (2020c). ‘Satisfaction Ratings 1997 to present’. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

 Google Scholar

Opinium. (2020). Political Polling, 15th January. See https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-15th-january-2020/

 Google Scholar