Do Governments Always Take Unpopular Decisions Knowingly? How Perceptual Inaccuracy Affects Policy Decisions

Figures & data

Figure 1. Levels of immigration to the UK and salience of immigration, 1997–2010. Sources: John et al. (2013); ONS (2018).

Figure 2. Voters’ perceptions of which party would be best to handle the NHS, 2010–2015. Data: YouGov (2015).

Table 1. Success of interview approaches.

Case	MPs	Advisers	Total
Tuition Fees (Liberal Democrats)	86% (6 of 7)	67% (4 of 6)	77% (10 of 13)
NHS (Conservatives)	20% (1 of 5)	67% (4 of 6)	45% (5 of 11)
Immigration (Labour)	67% (2 of 3)	63% (5 of 8)	64% (7 of 11)
Total	60% (9 of 15)	65% (13 of 20)	63% (22 of 35)

Table 2. List of topic codes.

Major topic: motivation behind the decision

Sub-topics:

Ideological conviction/belief that policy in voters’ ‘best interests’ Party management Constrained by other policy choices Constrained by coalition partner External stimulus requiring policy response Strategic timing of decision Other electoral considerations

Major topic: anticipated electoral reaction

Sub-topics:

Anticipated reaction from voters Anticipated reaction from party supporters Anticipated salience Anticipated reaction from activists Anticipated reaction from parliamentary party Anticipated reaction from opposition Anticipated reaction from media Anticipated reaction from interest groups Strategy for shaping public opinion

Major topic: basis of anticipated electoral reaction

Sub-topics:

Public opinion research Media narrative Past reactions to decisions Electoral cycle Views of colleagues Trust in colleagues Policy bundling Conviction that voters judge on outcomes Own convictions on voter behaviour (other) Own convictions on policy benefits

Table 3. Summary of electoral misperceptions.

Case: tuition iees	Case: NHS	Case: Immigration
Salience misjudgement: Voters would reward party for delivering on issues like the economy.	Salience misjudgement: Voters uninterested in details of public sector reform.	Salience misjudgements: Voters are concerned about asylum, not immigration. The A8 decision would be inconsequential.
Outcomes misjudgement: Voters would get over it once they saw the effects.	Outcomes misjudgement: Voters would judge party on their experience of the NHS.	Outcomes misjudgement: Impact of the decision under-estimated.
False equivalence to past decision: New Labour U-turned on tuition fees and electorally survived, so we shall too.
	Professional groups misjudgement: Voters will follow the lead of GPs, who will approve of the reforms.
	Misplaced trust in colleague: Minister understand his brief, therefore we can trust them to anticipate electoral reaction.

John, P., Bertelli, A., Jennings, W., & Bevan, S. (2013). Policy agendas in British politics. Palgrave Macmillan.

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ONS (2018) Dataset: Long-term International Migration 1.01, components and adjustments, UK. Retrieved October 5, 2019, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/longterminternationamigrationcomponentlsandadjustmentstable101.

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YouGov. (2015). Best Party on Issues Tracker. YouGov. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9drub35(7f/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Issues(1)-Best-Party-on-Issue-270415.pdf.

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