Tracing leadership: the ECB’s ‘whatever it takes’ and Germany in the Ukraine crisis

Figures & data

Table 1. Causal mechanism.

	X	Causal mechanism (leadership)				Y
Theoretical conjecture	Actor in a position of power	Interest to deploy resources	Offer or claim for leadership	Use of strategies	Change of reluctant actors’ positions	Policy or institutional change
Empirical manifestations	Resources relative to other actors: (1) material:  (a) economic  (b) military capacities (2) institutional: procedural rights (3) non-material:  (a) information  (b) reputation	Written or oral expressions of interest	Communications indicating the intention to invest resources into reaching a common goal	Agenda-management Provision of focal point Arena-shifting Arena-linking Coalition-building Pre-negotiations Unilateral action ‘Leading by example’ Representation Provision of common knowledge	Ex post approval of leader’s decision or change of respective statements	Difference between ex ante and ex post situation
Observables (see online appendix for details)	(1a) GDP, current account balance, public debt and deficit; financial means (1b) Troop strength, nuclear power (2) legal texts, written rules of procedure (3a) issue briefs, position papers, number of specialised staff (3b) subjective statements (e.g. interviews, press, declarations)	Strategy papers, face-to-face interviews, speeches	Speeches, press releases, (government) declarations, open letters	Depending on strategy, see online appendix	Public statements, strategy papers, common conclusions, interview statements	Legislative texts, legal acts, rules of procedure, treaties, international or inter-institutional agreements, practices
Test strength		Straw-in-the-wind test	Straw-in-the-wind test	Hoop test	Straw-in-the-wind test

Source: own illustration (inspired by Beach and Pedersen 2013).

Beach, Derek, and Rasmus B. Pedersen (2013). Process-Tracing Methods: Foundations and Guidelines. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

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