Incorporating the effect of weather in construction scheduling and management with sine wave curves: application in the United Kingdom

Figures & data

Table 1. Sample of relevant research papers on the effect of weather on construction projects.

Project type	Publication year	Reference	Weather data source	Forecastingmodel	Activities analyzed	Weather agents
Buildings	1999	Thomas et al. (1999)	Historical (past) data	No	Steel structure delivery and erection activities	Temperature and snow
	2008	Jang et al. (2008)	Short-term (live) forecasts	Yes	Generic	Temperature and precipitation
	2008	Thorpe and Karan (2008)	Historical (past) data	No	Clearing and grubbing, excavation, foundations, structural erection, floors, interiors, roofs and HVAC	Temperature, snow, humidity and precipitation
	2010	David et al. (2010)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Generic	Solar radiation, temperature, humidity, wind
	2013	Dytczak et al. (2013)	Historical (past) data	No	Generic	Temperature and wind
	2013	Marzouk and Hamdy (2013)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Formwork	Precipitation and temperature
	2014	Shan and Goodrum (2014)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Steel structure	Temperature and humidity
	2014	González et al. (2014)	Historical (past) data	No	RC structures and finishing’s (e.g. partition walls, windows, and doors)	Not specified
	2016	Jung et al. (2016)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Generic + core wall, steel frame, deck plate, RC, curtain wall	Solar radiation, temperature, wind and precipitation
	2016	Li et al. (2016)	Historical (past) data	No	Steel reinforced bars	(Hot) temperature
	2017	Ballesteros-Pérez et al. (2017a, 2017b)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Earthworks, formworks, concrete, steelworks, scaffolding, outdoor paintings and asphalt pavements	Temperature, precipitation, wind and electrical storms
Highways	2001	El-Rayes and Moselhi (2001)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Earthworks, base courses, drainage layers and paving	Precipitation
	2010	Apipattanavis et al. (2010)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Concrete and asphalt paving, structures, excavations and grading	Precipitation, air and soil temperature and wind
	2013	Chinowsky et al. (2013)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Generic	Temperature and precipitation
Pipelines	2011	Shahin et al. (2011)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Clearing and grading, trenching, bedding, pipe-fusing, laying-in, hydro testing, compaction and backfilling	Air and soil temperature, wind, humidity and precipitation
	2012	Duffy et al. (2012)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Grading, stringing, bending, welding, trenching, coating, backfill, clean-up	Temperature, wind, and precipitation
Tunnelling	2014	Shahin et al. (2014)	Historical (past) data	Yes	All tunnelling process, hoisting and muck car cleaning	Air and soil temperature and wind
Bridges	2015	Ballesteros-Pérez et al. (2015)	Historical (past) data	Yes	Earthworks, formworks, concrete and asphalt pavements	Temperature, precipitation, wind and electrical storms

Table 2. Weather variables and thresholds assumed to cause non-working days.

Weather variable (daily value)	Earthworks (E)	Concrete (C)	Formworks/scaffolding (F)	Steelworks (S)	Outdoor paintings (O)	Asphalt pavements (P)
Minimum temperature ≤0 °C		×				×
Mean temperature ≤0 °C	×			×	×
Maximum temperature ≥40 °C		×		×		×
Precipitation ≥1 mm					×	×
Precipitation ≥10 mm	×	×
Precipitation ≥30 mm				×
Hail precipitation					×	×
Snow precipitation					×	×
Electrical storm			×	×
Wind gusts ≥30 knots		×	×	×	×

Figure 1. Locations of weather stations used for the analysis.

Figure 2. Examples of average daily CRC calculations for all construction activities.

Figure 3. Example maps for vertical shift K (bottom), amplitude A (middle) and phase shift φ (top) for formworks/scaffolding activities in the UK.

Figure 4. Plots of K, A and φ values with regression expressions assumed.

Table 3. Errors in CRC estimates.

Data	Error	E	C	F	S	O	P	Average
3-p sine waves (K, A and φ are free)	MSE	0.004	0.017	0.012	0.016	0.017	0.017	0.01
	MAE	0.050	0.076	0.083	0.095	0.096	0.097	0.08
	MAPE	0.058	0.140	0.124	0.148	0.276	0.261	0.17
2-p sine waves (K and A are free, φ = constant)	MSE	0.005	0.010	0.013	0.017	0.017	0.017	0.01
	MAE	0.051	0.077	0.084	0.096	0.097	0.098	0.08
	MAPE	0.058	0.143	0.126	0.150	0.278	0.263	0.17
1-p sine waves (K free, A = f(K) and φ = constant)	MSE	0.005	0.010	0.013	0.017	0.018	0.018	0.01
	MAE	0.052	0.080	0.086	0.098	0.100	0.100	0.09
	MAPE	0.059	0.146	0.128	0.151	0.285	0.268	0.17
Deviations between neighbour data points (consecutive CRC values)	MSE	0.006	0.012	0.018	0.023	0.023	0.024	0.02
	MAE	0.057	0.084	0.098	0.108	0.112	0.114	0.10
	MAPE	0.067	0.168	0.157	0.184	0.337	0.322	0.21

Figure 5. Construction schedule for a simplified three-storey reinforced concrete building.

Figure 6. Predicted average, minimum and maximum project durations for the building project by UK city.

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